Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is probably going to be tedious but the NAM at hour 30 for this 18z run is lagging some of those maritime heights a bit back through NYS, more so than the 12z - not a lot, but a little more. Could be meaningful for phasing in some N stream junk out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles are basically a smoothed version of the OP...a little more liberal in E MA once in the BOS area and just to the north and maybe back W near ORH and into central CT...SE MA its similar to the OP, maybe even a touch drier on the Cape, but that's basically the nuances of some banding that the OP got into that region. Regardless, a definite jump NW from the 00z Ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He actually deleted two replies. First was "nit," then the second was "not what my data shows," then he deleted that and said that it's drier than GFS. lol its often a battle when one should give up staying the course, bc it is always better to make one adjustment as track /qpf becomes lock'd in (if your gonna budge) then changing more than once (esp if the second change is back toward your first call anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This one's coming. That is all. My North End dinner sealed it but I didn't realize it until now. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone posted earlier they held serve from 09z, No way, The 1" contour is in extreme southern maine this run The grease goes on the shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 still got a solid 10-12". IMBY oragraphic enhancement for you on some meso looks pretty scary. will made vague comparison to monster low 92'esque if gfs is closer to the target. you must have seen 40 inches in that storm. wa wa had 44 i think. NOT saying that ....lol but just if 128 area gets -6-10 you could see close to double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 12z Euro OP still had 6+" in extreme se mass, according to wunderground. Good to hear the ensembles were even juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The grease goes on the shovel. I think the GFS is over amped, I would like my chances better if i was further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 oragraphic enhancement for you on some meso looks pretty scary. will made vague comparison to monster low 92'esque if gfs is closer to the target. you must have seen 40 inches in that storm. wa wa had 44 i think. NOT saying that ....lol but just if 128 area gets -6-10 you could see close to double that. This has some fantastic components to it for orgraphic enhancement for ORH hills...esp subdude's area as he is often the most favorable spot due to the steep terrain grade just off to his east. We have a firehose coming off the Atlantic with low level moisture (even well before the mid-level moisture really gets here) and a nice cold profile at 900mb and a wind of around 060 at 35-45 knots in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensemble mean precip up to 0.42" at BDL, as high as 1.90" at MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles are basically a smoothed version of the OP...a little more liberal in E MA once in the BOS area and just to the north and maybe back W near ORH and into central CT...SE MA its similar to the OP, maybe even a touch drier on the Cape, but that's basically the nuances of some banding that the OP got into that region. Regardless, a definite jump NW from the 00z Ensemble mean. Don't like that the ens match the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensemble mean precip up to 0.42" at BDL, as high as 1.90" at MVY. what were the gfs ensembles numbers.. at work in between clients can't check.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This has some fantastic components to it for orgraphic enhancement for ORH hills...esp subdude's area as he is often the most favorable spot due to the steep terrain grade just off to his east. We have a firehose coming off the Atlantic with low level moisture (even well before the mid-level moisture really gets here) and a nice cold profile at 900mb and a wind of around 060 at 35-45 knots in the boundary layer. Agreed! I posted much earlier in this thread that this system as GFS has it has an impressive "shadowing" characteristic to it. Could see some interior N-S oriented valleys getting meso boned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles are basically a smoothed version of the OP...a little more liberal in E MA once in the BOS area and just to the north and maybe back W near ORH and into central CT...SE MA its similar to the OP, maybe even a touch drier on the Cape, but that's basically the nuances of some banding that the OP got into that region. Regardless, a definite jump NW from the 00z Ensemble mean. Is that more an advisory or warning type mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't like that the ens match the op. I don't mind it..they are slightly more bullish actually. Usually they are watered down a bit at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is probably going to be tedious but the NAM at hour 30 for this 18z run is lagging some of those maritime heights a bit back through NYS, more so than the 12z - not a lot, but a little more. Could be meaningful for phasing in some N stream junk out there in time. It's further south at 36. Interesing but at this point time to let things roll in tonight. GFS is likely overdone, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is that more an advisory or warning type mean? Doesn't look like warning snows given how drawn out it is. Maybe weenie ridge in princeton with upslope and perhaps some spots in interior SE MA...but this is obviously not a stagant situation. The 12z Euro ensemble mean is unlikely to be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't like that the ens match the op. What do you mean? I was happy the Euro Ens made a big jump NW from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He actually deleted two replies. First was "nit," then the second was "not what my data shows," then he deleted that and said that it's drier than GFS. Theatre of the absurd Scratch my comment on the NAM above, was looking at the panels wrong, was looking at the 12z vs 18z not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 mike maybe u should buy that vaca home in the ORH hills. instead of NH/ maine lol no qpf issues there this year Yeah--they're primed for the possibilities with this one. Maybe I can move to Templeton or some such area. Need quite a bit more movement for Rick/GC/Mitch to get too excited with this one. That movement ain't too likely to happen. 31.3/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is NW again. Yeah, wow on the interaction evident by 50 hours. ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is NW again. Yup. Heights slightly higher just ahead of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is NW again.You on air tonight? You gonna play it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Agreed! I posted much earlier in this thread that this system as GFS has it has an impressive "shadowing" characteristic to it. Could see some interior N-S oriented valleys getting meso boned One of those deals in which if you are not IN the hills, then you don't want to be near (just west) them....not as well as the ORH hills, but my area would do fine here on the cp, void of terrain interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You on air tonight? You gonna play it up? Stop and Shop CEO asked all TV mets to hype.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Will and Ryan, fair enough.....my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You on air tonight? You gonna play it up? I'm not. Still have to play it cautious tonight but mention that things are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM 500mb slightly west of the 12z position for 42 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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