Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here are the indiv 09z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS caves substantially to the euro that would be a horrible fail for a D3 solution. The gfs even figured sandy out by 72 hours. Yeah no way around it, Euro or GFS is going down hard. I think every run has been drastically different over the Midwest. At one point the NAM pounded Flint. That's the rub. The NAM to me is heading towards the GFS over New England (to some degree) but it doesn't matter if the developing ULL is in a different spot too. That's what usually happens, the GFS will do very well in one aspedt but fumble the ball elsewhere to compensate. That's how the Euro so often steals the show, it may be a little bit off everywhere but not usually terrible in any single feature respect. The stumbling block IMO is the block, and what goes on over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Last night at 11 I talked about the gfs, laughed, said it was awful compared to the euro and moved on.Youve really changed on this because even At the beginning of winter you still loved it and used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM pinching off the ridge to the north this run. Definitely came around to the GFS idea of lowering heights over the NE with the old spin from last night, just not as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1953 redux on the NAM? What dates in 1953? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well NAM caved to the GFS/UK idea of the old spin rotating over New England. It had been lock step with the Euro up until the 6z last night as was the RGEM. Both broke from the Euro and tugged the old system through New England. The 12z NAM carries that idea. DT was up in arms over this feature last night as a phantom, but it's legit. Not as extreme as the GFS by any means, but it's there, and will play a role. Note compared to the 0z NAM that agreed with the Euro the other center is also shifted considerably further ENE out of the way. (SE of NS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Youve really changed on this because even At the beginning of winter you still loved it and used. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here are the indiv 09z SREFs f87.gif I vote for either 2 or 3. I'm not picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Def north of the 0z. Skipping the 6z NAM came around to the idea of the vortmax being faster in the base this run too. Again all about compromise and movement towards the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crush job for DC metro and the elevations just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Potentially historic March snowstorm for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That was good. The real wildcard is going to be the random s/w over the Lakes that's kind of floating that way today. The Euro should finally drop the bowling ball heading into the abyss this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crush job for DC metro and the elevations just west.This is the NE wx forum. Please keep other area discos in their respective regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 69, slightly further NW, 0.2" as snow so far for KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 69, slightly further NW, 0.2" as snow so far for KTOL. Can u repost your analog map from yesteday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is decent for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well as of right now , the NAM is still amped up. Looks like some of the SREF members. I won't discredit it's solution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM looks like a scraper for the most part...gets some solid qpf into eastern SNE, but the real brunt of the dynamics remain on the Cape or offshore. It would be a nice pasting for the Cap eif it wasn't so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip, looks like some of this is rain towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is decent for SE MA. Yeah looked pretty good out on the end of its rope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip, looks like some of this is rain towards the end. Verbatim, yes, as you loose the dynamics the BL will warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crossroads: "I believe I'm sinking down" Crunch time for the models, trends my friends, trends. What a clusterpluck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's an advisory event for interior Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A Feb 16th like storm with a longitudinal gradient definitely seems possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just going off the soundings, the 850 line looks like a good approximation of the R/S line up here. Looks to be the warmest level outside of just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It boggles my mind the ensembles have a virtual bliz 72 hours out. Yeah, other than perhaps a 25 mi margin for error the 06z GFS stayed course ... which is really interesting because 10 out of the 12 00z GFS ensemble members were nearly identical to the operational run. Seeing so many GFS members on board ... it's not like the operational version is a rogue solution, when the majority of its cousins are on the same page. What all that means is that there is either something more systemically wrong with the entire genome (for lack of better word) of the GFS construct, or the Euro will have to eventually concede. Fwiw, the 12Z NAM's might be a trend in that direction.. What a wacky year of modeling - each model gets a chance at glory? ...Before returning to suckdom ?? We really need this storm to work out in the GFS' favor so that it can be an even money winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM looks like a scraper for the most part...gets some solid qpf into eastern SNE, but the real brunt of the dynamics remain on the Cape or offshore. It would be a nice pasting for the Cap eif it wasn't so warm. The trend is more important here - particularly in that 54-84 range. That was a pretty substantial leap NW at 500mb; interesting that the surface solution was only slightly NW, but another run with that much 500mb repositioning and that sfc resolution would concede and then you got more impact bodily into eastern zones. It's that close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The trend is more important here - particularly in that 54-84 range. That was a pretty substantial leap NW at 500mb; interesting that the surface solution was only slightly NW, but another run with that much 500mb repositioning and that sfc resolution would concede and then you got more impact bodily into eastern zones. It's that close... Yeah the NAM is close to something a lot bigger...but I really couldn't care less what the NAM shows at this point. Maybe it will actually figure out a system outside of 48 hours at some point, but until it does, there's little reason to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it makes some sense that coming up against the block, the closed 5H low turns quite negative in orientation and eventually gets some snow into SNE. Probably a weaker low might just get squished under and slink OTS east southeast off HAT as earlier runs showed. We'll have to see how far southeast it dive bombs before beginning it's pivot toward negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah the NAM is close to something a lot bigger...but I really couldn't care less what the NAM shows at this point. Maybe it will actually figure out a system outside of 48 hours at some point, but until it does, there's little reason to take it seriously. LOL, word! ...I guess the point is, if it were trending the other direction, that would be less encouraging. But yeah, as is the model is not a very good synoptic tool for anything beyond about 20 minutes it seems. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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