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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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SREFs are a decent jog NW in the mean SLP as well...both qpf and SLP northwest. Biggest difference is in E MA/RI/E CT where the qpf jumps a noticeable amount.

 

Probably important to consider that some of it may be liquid.

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ski sheep

it basically has you at 50-60% of greater than 2 inches and 30-40 of greater than 4 thru 7pm thurs. But obv this storm is evolving and not over at that point so just something to show where some orgaziations are wrt snow thru thur eve at this point in changing time (euro ens) are big but not a must IMO , tonites euro is just as big.

 

some meso's hammerin E slope of monads/orh hills pretty hard on wednesday afternoon/eve with orographic enhancement

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Probably important to consider that some of it may be liquid.

 

Yes...esp down toward the Cape, but through Thurs morning on the SREFs, it looks pretty cold near the sfc even in BOS. We'll see what the SREF probs say when they come out in a few minutes on ewall, but I'll bet they are pretty bullish even right to the coast...at minimum the coastal plain just off the immediate water.

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ski sheep

it basically has you at 50-60% of greater than 2 inches and 30-40 of greater than 4 thru 7pm thurs. But obv this storm is evolving and not over at that point so just something to show where some orgaziations are wrt snow thru thur eve at this point in changing time (euro ens) are big but not a must IMO , tonites euro is just as big.

 

some meso's hammerin E slope of monads/orh hills pretty hard on wednesday afternoon/eve with orographic enhancement

Good to know, thanks!

-skisheep

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Just think...by this point last storm, the media had already had its snowfall maps out for about 24-36 hours.

 

Now we're 48 hours away.

I think that at 6 tonight we see the media start to turn the hype machine on, pending euro ens confirmation of north trend.

-skisheep

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I think that at 6 tonight we see the media start to turn the hype machine on, pending euro ens confirmation of north trend.

-skisheep

i'm skeptical the ens are gonna be Nw of op....maybe a hair.  \ euro  could inch north from here on out and gfs goes se. but well see.  Its tuff to determine since other guidance at 12z HAS trended north, and its critical where this compromise is obviously but euro won't automatically keep trending till storm is here , just because it has in storms prior.  

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Yes...esp down toward the Cape, but through Thurs morning on the SREFs, it looks pretty cold near the sfc even in BOS. We'll see what the SREF probs say when they come out in a few minutes on ewall, but I'll bet they are pretty bullish even right to the coast...at minimum the coastal plain just off the immediate water.

 

I'm, oddly enough, not that concerned on ptype for this prospect. It seems a bit like we described for last weekend, where intensity would drive ptype better than other traditional factors. Marginal, yes, but if it's heavy it's probably snow, at least for my neck of the woods it looks like.

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LOL, Quincy posts the Euro QPF numbers on DT's wall, he says he's wrong, not what the data shows.  People are so funny about this weather stuff.

 

 

I know it's like they get actually angry at one another - I'm wondering why that is.. it's not like I mean it's "weather", it's not the mortgage on your home, or your kid's well-being.  

 

weird.   I think I guess if you draw a living via weather, your rep may be affected - true.  But just make up for that by hitting calls closer and marketing appropriately - it shouldn't matter.    

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Prepare for power outages ESP inland

God, I hope not.  Might need a shovel (or dynamite) to get to my generator.  lol

 

Except MPM, tight QPF gradient will result in his emotional unraveling.

 

I'm feeling a little like DT I think.

 

And OT but MPM....10/30 is not a sun angle issue. 10/30 is equivalent to around 2/15.

 

Great point, Jerry.  I was pointing to an example and came up with a bad one.  Guess if I could come up with a snowstorm around October 1 would have been better.  :)

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post-462-0-55858900-1362427357_thumb.jpg

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LOL, Quincy posts the Euro QPF numbers on DT's wall, he says he's wrong, not what the data shows.  People are so funny about this weather stuff.

He actually deleted two replies.

 

First was "nit," then the second was "not what my data shows," then he deleted that and said that it's drier than GFS. 

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