MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-051100-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DEALS OF HOW THIS STORMWILL EVOLVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:* SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. * HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.THESE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It actually looks pretty cold during the height of it overnight. If we get slammed overnight Wed night into Thu morning, temps would probably be in the 27F range. Even the sfc-torch-happy GFS has 2m temps at ORH down into the upper 20s by 12z Thursday.Id rather have it 31-32. I remember the Oct storm looked more powdery but we ended with paste at 31 until the end when it dropped into upper 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I didn't see a single forecast at noon that had more than clouds. Kind of unbelievable given what the models were showing even at that point. Obviously all waiting on the Euro. I even mentioned a small possibility of snow or mix for BOS yesterday...but that's just a heads up. I think people still feel uncertain because the euro would still need to bump north decently to have a significant impact to BOS. It may tonight, but it's a tough forecast. Seeing the gfs and GEFS it makes me think it will...even if the ensembles don't make a greater leap than what the op just did. I certainly would bang the drum harder considering how vulnerable ern mass is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I didn't see a single forecast at noon that had more than clouds. Kind of unbelievable given what the models were showing even at that point. Obviously all waiting on the Euro. What are you basing this on, because we've had chance PoP for our southern zones for two days. BOX must've had at least that going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 so the ULL retrograding back SW through Maine is what helps this come further north? Can one of the mets (or someone in the know explain)? If you keep the energy solidly in place over ME and Nova Scotia...it acts as a 50/50 low on 'roids to the point where the storm cannot gain latitude after it leaves the Mid-atlantic coastline....by having some of that energy retrograde north of the ULL and then eventually back south phasing into it, it allows heights to rise a bit wher ethe energy has just vacated...so height rises ahead of the ULL allows it to gain some latitude...a lot of the hits have the ULL almost moving NNE for a time well after it exits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I even mentioned a small possibility of snow or mix for BOS yesterday...but that's just a heads up. I think people still feel uncertain because the euro would still need to bump north decently to have a significant impact to BOS. It may tonight, but it's a tough forecast. Seeing the gfs and GEFS it makes me think it will...even if the ensembles don't make a greater leap than what the op just did. I certainly would bang the drum harder considering how vulnerable ern mass is. The biggest audience is the evening news not the 11pm so a lot of on air mets are going to have some decisions to make. Not an enviable position. edit: if the Euro ensembles lean towards hit then they at least have to pull the trigger on laying out possible impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The biggest audience is the evening news not the 11pm so a lot of on air mets are going to have some decisions to make. Not an enviable position.Yeah there's very few people awake at 11:00 at nite during the week if they have to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah there's very few people awake at 11:00 at nite during the week if they have to work. ? not sure about that..but I don't watch the 11 pm news anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Id rather have it 31-32. I remember the Oct storm looked more powdery but we ended with paste at 31 until the end when it dropped into upper 20's Here it was about 4" of slop and 6" of lighter snow/powder with next to nothing for tree damage. Tree damage increased dramatically at the lower elevations in Coventry/Tolland with much heavier weighing wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I even mentioned a small possibility of snow or mix for BOS yesterday...but that's just a heads up. I think people still feel uncertain because the euro would still need to bump north decently to have a significant impact to BOS. It may tonight, but it's a tough forecast. Seeing the gfs and GEFS it makes me think it will...even if the ensembles don't make a greater leap than what the op just did. I certainly would bang the drum harder considering how vulnerable ern mass is. If things align right we could be getting destroyed, crazy how a few days ago this was likely a non event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah there's very few people awake at 11:00 at nite during the week if they have to work.LOL. But most are usually still up at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah there's very few people awake at 11:00 at nite during the week if they have to work. And very few dedicated weenies who miss out on the heavy snow because they need their sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If things align right we could be getting destroyed, crazy how a few days ago this was likely a non event up here. Some of the signals are tough to ignore and massive ocean storms cause havoc to models. At this point the question is whether or not it's a crushing like the gfs op and ensembles, or a slop storm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What are you basing this on, because we've had chance PoP for our southern zones for two days. BOX must've had at least that going. BOX has had ra/sn in the grids for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And very few dedicated weenies who miss out on the heavy snow because they need their sleep. Well its not like he is predicting snow anyways...the GFS is trash and he said we don't get snowstorms in March anymore...he said we could take it to the bank on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here it was about 4" of slop and 6" of lighter snow/powder with next to nothing for tree damage. Tree damage increased dramatically at the lower elevations in Coventry/Tolland with much heavier weighing wet snow. My memory of October 2011 is that is was more of a powdery deal. The tree damage in S. Windsor at 3-4 degrees warmer was epic. Tolland was not nearly as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here it was about 4" of slop and 6" of lighter snow/powder with next to nothing for tree damage. Tree damage increased dramatically at the lower elevations in Coventry/Tolland with much heavier weighing wet snow.It wasn't like that here farther north and 200 feet higher. It was 31 until about 2:00 am when it fell into the upper 20's . 95% of my snow was very wet. The last inch or two was drier. There was all kinds of damage at 1000 feet all over Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It will be nasty having the Euro start updating at 2:00 am for the next few threats. Yeah there's very few people awake at 11:00 at nite during the week if they have to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It actually looks pretty cold during the height of it overnight. If we get slammed overnight Wed night into Thu morning, temps would probably be in the 27F range. Even the sfc-torch-happy GFS has 2m temps at ORH down into the upper 20s by 12z Thursday. Yeah that's exactly what I was thinking - if it really comes to be a full on impact proper we dynamically go powder for a time... For the grid it would almost be worse if we keep more middling with wind and wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My memory of October 2011 is that is was more of a powdery deal. The tree damage in S. Windsor at 3-4 degrees warmer was epic. Tolland was not nearly as bad.South Windsor was warmer yes but also had 6-10 inches more snow. I don't agree . Ryan did a news story up here and there were power poles snapped very near my hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12/19/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well its not like he is predicting snow anyways...the GFS is trash and he said we don't get snowstorms in March anymore...he said we could take it to the bank on that. Well that settles it then. I can always go back to the BOX site and think back to yester years when we had snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It wasn't like that here farther north and 200 feet higher. It was 31 until about 2:00 am when it fell into the upper 20's . 95% of my snow was very wet. The last inch or two was drier. There was all kinds of damage at 1000 feet all over Tolland I had less snow than you with 10" and most of the storm here was with tiny snow flakes. My town had about 50% of the power out including me due to two small limbs that tripped the circuit. There was no line damage and it literally took less than 1 hour to fix when we finally got line crews 6 days after the power went out. Most of my area also had bare tree's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12/19/09? This one has much more of a firehose off the Atlantic...12/09 was more of a classic frontogensis storm with the a strong suppressing high to the north enhancing it (and also screwing people to the north). This is almost a Dec '92-esque monster circulation that tries to firehose us if it actually makes it that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HPC has 50% plus prob for 6+ inches of snow from ORH/hubb dave over to waltham/weston down to wrenthem/mansfield over to n 1/2 of RI. updated at 155pm. percentages cut off rapidly in CT and slightly heading NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's hold serve, close to 1" here. More for Ern areas in later panels. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z SREF look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HPC has 50% plus prob for 6+ inches of snow from ORH/hubb dave over to waltham/weston down to wrenthem/mansfield over to n 1/2 of RI. updated at 155pm. percentages cut off rapidly in CT and slightly heading NE from there Post it please? thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z SREF look nice. Looks like a weenie 2" bullseye in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.