March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II

[eduggs]

Interesting that guidance had slowly hooked the mid and surface lows further NW toward SNE late in the event, while not shifting the low as far NW through the mid-atl earlier in the event.  That's probably a really good sign for SNE, probably moreso than EPA, NJ, NYC etc...  Whatever midlevel forcing/ccb manages to wrap up into the area could really linger as it decays.

[Typhoon Tip]

NCEP.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

 

Oh god how stupid am I - that's one of my primary BM's -  lol

[Brian5671]

Yeah I highly doubt that we get power outages, the snow will start out wet here and as it gets colder that will change to crappy little snowflakes falling for most of the storm as per usual. It's tough to get a heavy wet snowstorm up here at this elevation in Early March.

are you really complaining given where we were 24 hrs ago?  LOL

[Logan11]

I think he is going off the rails because the snow for Richmond and points south is imperiled. The rest of his forecast looks fine, but he is first a weenie and wants it in his backyard of course.  So far today he has insulted this BB and Drag.  LOL

DT is coming unhinged, hilarious

[Bostonseminole]

Usually around 2:30 from where I look.

 

yeah, to me the 9:30-4:30 time is the best.. you have the Euro at 1 pm and then the 18z start running 1.5 hrs later.. no dead time like in the PM between 5:30 and 8:30

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I think he is going off the rails because the snow for Richmond and points south is imperiled. The rest of his forecast looks fine, but he is first a weenie and wants it in his backyard of course.  So far today he has insulted this BB and Drag.  LOL

 

I like DT but he was totally wrong about the feature over New England.  One of those deals where all you had to do is look at a water vapor loop and match it up to the 500mb loop to see what was going on. 

 

This storm just kind of solidifies my opinion that we are moving away from forecasting.  If someone hacked the Euro and made it a total miss I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of forecasts that went that route right up until the shoveling started.

 

Props to Drag and Kocin.

 

 

Yeah. But he's denying any northward trends the models are showing. Sticking with the bowling ball east idea. Riding the op Euro hard.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If the GFS is correct the general public is going to have about a days lead time on a pretty sizeable storm.  Maybe better that way, keep the media generated hysteria in check.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah I highly doubt that we get power outages, the snow will start out wet here and as it gets colder that will change to crappy little snowflakes falling for most of the storm as per usual. It's tough to get a heavy wet snowstorm up here at this elevation in Early March.

Lol what? Most March snowfalls are wet.

[Logan11]

The 12Z  GFS got .75"  to ALB.  Bogus no doubt...we never get lucky like that this year.

 

Interesting that guidance had slowly hooked the mid and surface lows further NW toward SNE late in the event, while not shifting the low as far NW through the mid-atl earlier in the event.  That's probably a really good sign for SNE, probably moreso than EPA, NJ, NYC etc...  Whatever midlevel forcing/ccb manages to wrap up into the area could really linger as it decays.

 

Interesting that guidance had slowly hooked the mid and surface lows further NW toward SNE late in the event, while not shifting the low as far NW through the mid-atl earlier in the event.  That's probably a really good sign for SNE, probably moreso than EPA, NJ, NYC etc...  Whatever midlevel forcing/ccb manages to wrap up into the area could really linger as it decays.

[weatherwiz]

This could really be one of those rare times where the Euro slowly comes on to other guidance and it appears as if that is happening.  Looks like the euro is starting to slowly come around to other models with the handing of the trough.  

[ORH_wxman]

 

I guess the question is, why did everyone discount the Euro ENS up until now?

 

I certainly didn't...I think I had been hitting on a low impact event (esp for interior hills) based on the Euro ensembles going back at least 48 hours. That idea may be much too conservative however if the current trends do not reverse.

[Zeus]

yeah, to me the 9:30-4:30 time is the best.. you have the Euro at 1 pm and then the 18z start running 1.5 hrs later.. no dead time like in the PM between 5:30 and 8:30

 

If they ran off-hour Euro runs, you people would never get anything done.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

PREFERENCES:  A MULTI BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/CANADIAN AND
UKMET WILL ARRIVE AT AN AVERAGED SOLUTION...HAVE SEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER THAN THE 00Z
RUN...

 

THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 09Z SREFMEAN...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO
VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/WASHINGTON D.C PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...BUT
THEN SHIFTING THE STORM OFFSHORE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY
BRINGING SNOW FROM NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT EXTEND FAR INLAND.

THE 12Z GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RUNS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO EAST COAST BUT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH ONCE THE STORM IS OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
THE MOST ROBUST SOLUTION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM NEW JERSEY TO
ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z
ECMWF...THE GFS NOW IS AN OUTLIER WITH HEAVIER SNOW OVER EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND

THE 12Z UKMET IS NOW THE SECOND UKMET RUN TO CONTINUE BRINGING THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES
HOWEVER...KEEP HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE MIDWEST SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS ON TUESDAY BUT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH OF DC WITH A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ON THURSDAY...THE UKMET DOES BRING SNOWFALL
FROM EASTERN NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...MORE SIMILAR TO
THE 12Z NAM THAN THE GFS BUT BRINGS HEAVY AMOUNTS TO SE NEW
ENGLAND.

THE 12Z CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF MODELS IN THAT LIKE
THE UKMET...IT KEEPS HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY.
LATER... THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FOUND BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LESS OF A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE
THAN THE UKMET/NAM. IT HAS A DIFFERENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IN
THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS UP THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM NEW
JERSEY TO MASSACHUSETTS.

THEREFORE...MORE OF A CONSENSUS IS EMERGING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD SEEMING TO BE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON DC TO RICHMOND...WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING NEAR THE
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE SURFACE LOW SEPARATED BY
ABOUT 50 MILES THESE ARE NOT TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES BUT STILL
COULD IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS AND
APPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER IT
WAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
HAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EAST
COAST.  THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 6Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
STABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO
CONTINUING. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER
RUNS EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES.  THEREFORE...THE 12Z
GFS PROVIDES NO NEW INFORMATION EXCEPT THAT IT HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF. HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT THE 12Z UKMET AND
CANADIAN EVEN THOUGH I AM  NOT SUPPOSED TO INCLUDE IT YET...BUT
BOTH SEEM TO SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS...WITH THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF MOVING NORTH OF THE RUNS 24 HOURS AND GREATER.  THE
12Z CANADIAN DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE MORE TO SAY IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION WHEN I
HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DIGEST.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH AND INLAND THE SNOW
GETS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD TO NYC AND NEW ENGLAND.  RIGHT
NOW...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THESE AREAS
WHICH IS CERTAINLY A TREND...EXCEPT THAT THE 12Z GFS/GEFS BEING
THE OUTLIERS ON THE HIGH END...BUT AT DAY 3...UNCERTAINTY IS
UNDERSTANDABLE.

IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE
THE CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE COAST...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACH
NORTHWARD INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMETHING
THAT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET
DOES...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN DO NOT.  THE NAM 500 MB
LOW IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REASONABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS SHOWN
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHERE THE
SURFACE LOWS ARE NEARLY EXACT.
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

comedy, my friend

 

Yeah I suppose - much in the same way we all privately wish for a storm where there is 40"  surround a bull's eye of 0" centered on Mt Tolland ....

[ORH_wxman]

 

I like DT but he was totally wrong about the feature over New England.  One of those deals where all you had to do is look at a water vapor loop and match it up to the 500mb loop to see what was going on. 

 

This storm just kind of solidifies my opinion that we are moving away from forecasting.  If someone hacked the Euro and made it a total miss I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of forecasts that went that route right up until the shoveling started.

 

Props to Drag and Kocin.

 

The New England energy has always been there. It was one of the ways we could get a decent hit...I believe I told pickles back on Friday when he asked how we can get decent bump north. Anyone saying it appeared out of nowhere isn't really being totally genuine...the Euro had this escaping eastward while the GFS was hanging it back and allowed it to retro-phase into the big ULL.

I didn't believe the GFS, but wasn't surprised at how it was doing this...it turns out the GFS might score a win with the retrogration of the New England energy hanging back.

[CoastalWx]

I guess the question is, why did everyone discount the Euro ENS up until now?

I dont think anyone did, in fact, it probably led the way into people thinking the euro op was closer to being correct.

[Typhoon Tip]

If the GFS is correct the general public is going to have about a days lead time on a pretty sizeable storm.  Maybe better that way, keep the media generated hysteria in check.

 

My buddy and his wife are due tomorrow           If the GFS is right ... power disruption becomes a pretty real concern, and not just on the coast this go.  The thermal profiles look rather sticky pretty far inland - though I could almost see this getting dynamically sneakily down if this system gets any closer.  But where it is now, 32F S+ with 45 mph wind gust could penetrate to I-495, and that could impose a grid failure or two.   They don't need to have a new born coming home from the hospital to a dark, cold home.  Been keep him updated -

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think what maybe telling regarding whether or not we see a compromise more in favor of the 12z GFS, or 12z EURO from here on out will be the EC ens....do they remain fairly steady and now match the op well, or did they shift n, as well?

[Damage In Tolland]

My buddy and his wife are due tomorrow If the GFS is right ... power disruption becomes a pretty real concern, and just on the coast this go. The thermal profiles look rather sticky pretty far inland - though I could almost see this getting dynamically sneakily down if this system gets any closer. But where it is now, 32F S+ with 45 mph wind gust could penetrate to I-495, and that could impose a grid failure or two. They don't need to have a new born coming home from the hospital to a dark, cold home. Been keep him updated -

Yeah it's got an 31-32, paste job well back to Nw of ORH to HFD line

[Bostonseminole]

I think what maybe telling regarding whether or not we see a compromise more in favor of the 12z GFS, or 12z EURO from here on out will be the EC ens....do they remain fairly steady and now match the op well, or did they shift n, as well?

 

likely has been asked but when do they come out? and what is the best site to check?  Allan or E-wall?

[CoastalWx]

Rollo everyone forecasts,it's why we thought the euro op would come north and the gfs south. I didn't buy the blizzard it had, nor did I buy it giving me 12" during th blizzard back in Feb. At thee days out, its very tough to make a finite call which is why we discuss what we think may or may not happen.

[eduggs]

The 12Z  GFS got .75"  to ALB.  Bogus no doubt...we never get lucky like that this year.

The GFS and its ensembles look like it they dump all the way back to you in some kind of lingering deformation band.  And it's totally plausible based on the 12z upper level charts.  I think QPF would be locally greater than the .75, especially outside the valley.  But it would have to be every bit as extreme as shown on that run.  A strong hedge towards consensus is warranted.  And like you say, ALB has missed almost everything this year... no reason to break the trend now.

 

I'm encouraged that the GGEM manages to wrap some light to mod precip back here very late in the game, despite a further SE track at all levels.  And bowling ball ULLs almost always seem to verify further north than progged along the east coast.  I like a GGEM or NAM solution right now.

[Sugarloaf1989]

are you really complaining given where we were 24 hrs ago?  LOL

 

 

No I am not complaining, only responding to CT Blizz calling for power outages and commenting on how hard it is to get a wet snow storm up here in early March. Wet snow storms up here are not the common occurance, even the October 2011 storm had alot of fluff here.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Yeah it's got an 31-32, paste job well back to Nw of ORH to HFD line

 

It actually looks pretty cold during the height of it overnight. If we get slammed overnight Wed night into Thu morning, temps would probably be in the 27F range. Even the sfc-torch-happy GFS has 2m temps at ORH down into the upper 20s by 12z Thursday.

[CoastalWx]

No I am not complaining, only responding to CT Blizz calling for power outages and commenting on how hard it is to get a wet snow storm up here in early March. Wet snow storms up here are not the common occurance, even the October 2011 storm had alot of fluff here.

And the gfs had you safely below 32.

[Whineminster]

Forgive me if i'm wrong, but didn't on the Feb. 27 Storm the Euro put out 12" plus of snow for the N ORH Hills, but the NAM actually verified with 2-4" of snow changing to rain?  So this potentially could be 2 busts in a row

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Rollo everyone forecasts,it's why we thought the euro op would come north and the gfs south. I didn't buy the blizzard it had, nor did I buy it giving me 12" during th blizzard back in Feb. At thee days out, its very tough to make a finite call which is why we discuss what we think may or may not happen.

 

I didn't see a single forecast at noon that had more than clouds.  Kind of unbelievable given what the models were showing even at that point.  Obviously all waiting on the Euro.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Forgive me if i'm wrong, but didn't on the Feb. 27 Storm the Euro put out 12" plus of snow for the N ORH Hills, but the NAM actually verified with 2-4" of snow changing to rain?  So this potentially could be 2 busts in a row

 

Yes...though this bust would be on a different scale...that was just a thermal profile bust and maybe being a bit too aggressive with the CAD...but this is a huge synoptic scale bust if the Euro continues to cave any further.

[Brian5671]

so the ULL retrograding back SW through Maine is what helps this come further north?  Can one of the mets (or someone in the know explain)?

[N. OF PIKE]

when's the last time the euro ens were so eagerly anticipated........anyone