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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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I don't know if the storm will work out but one thing I am sure of is the trolling of DT will be epic.

 

In fairness there's enough bump trolling material to go around for about 3-4 years across multiple threads...if a more intense solution plays out.

 

Wunder has the detailed Euro maps up.  I cannot get over how large the changes are in just 24 hours (can see all 3 runs right now)... what a botch job.

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I'm feeling a sizeable storm for you guys in SNE, but I bet it will be more elevation dependent than some are thinking right now. It's pretty marginal on the GFS for coastal plain areas, though if you get into the meat of the CCB it wouldn't matter. Long duration easterly flow with marginal airmass in March though may be more of a problem than just seeing 850s of 0C and lower would suggest.

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Many of us are going to have Been very wrong. But it's actually a win because we get a Oak Obliterating snowstorm out of it t. So losers win and winners win. We all win FTW

That is why conservative approaches are the right approaches...you win with snow even if your call is dead wrong. If you always hype you have no where to go but disappointment if it doesn't quite pan out fully.

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Euro ensembles getting better qpf in here at 3-4 day lead time than the OP is a bit of a red flag as well. The Euro ensembles were one reason I stayed pretty bullish in the inverted trough Feb 24 event...they really had a nice looking setup.

Still though, even the Euro ensembles will probably end up way too far south at 3-4 days lead. We'll see if the GEFS stay the course in the next 24 hours...they definitely made it a head scratcher since 18z yesterday when they nearly all agreed on big hits.

Yeah but even they were way south and drawn out with the QPF. Half an inch to Marshfield in 24hrs? That won't cut it and that was 00z last night. Could be an epic fail for them.

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So who wants to start taking bets that my 11am flight on Thursday out of BOS to DCA is on time.

 

Or 8:00a.m. from BDL-CLT.  I'm going 30% chance of cancel, 40% chance of delay to deicing.  Unless things are coming down hard beginning Wednesady evening perhaps keeping planes from coming in.  If' the plane's there, it'll be going out.

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Right, so 12 members of GFS are almost indistinguishable from one another, including the operational version, and the Euro comes NW TOWARD that mean - 

 

I don't have any issue tossing the Euro runs at this point.  It's not handling this synoptically - I discussed yesterday that it's wave lengths were too long in a blocking regime and it's slowly shrinking them now.  

 

We'll see - 

At this time range the GEFS are almost always clustered near the op.  There have been numerous storms this year where one or more of the globals had a solution outside the entire range of the GEFS.  So I'm not so confident that we can write off a Euro solution based on the consistent clustering of the GEFS.  If the GFS is wrong, whatever is causing the error will have polluted the entire GEFS cluster.

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I don't know what the pre-occupation is with that guy -

I think there is a correlation between how cranky he gets to how much snow we get ;). We all know on the inside he's saying to himself. WTF, stop moving north.

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Oh boy, here we go! lol

 

 

Yeah I highly doubt that we get power outages, the snow will start out wet here and as it gets colder that will change to crappy little snowflakes falling for most of the storm as per usual. It's tough to get a heavy wet snowstorm up here at this elevation in Early March.

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At this time range the GEFS are almost always clustered near the op.  There have been numerous storms this year where one or more of the globals had a solution outside the entire range of the GEFS.  So I'm not so confident that we can write off a Euro solution based on the consistent clustering of the GEFS.  If the GFS is wrong, whatever is causing the error will have polluted the entire GEFS cluster.

 

 

Not true - this kind of clustering is intense

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