Bryan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So who wants to start taking bets that my 11am flight on Thursday out of BOS to DCA is on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what do winds look like on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston Models trended a bit further NW with Wed/Thu storm. Still favoring more of a glancing blow to #SNEwx. Low probability of a larger impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A GFS/Euro compromise sounds like it would be a pretty decent guess at this point. Euro finally came north, and probably isn't done...but hard to see it getting to what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Wxrisk.com **** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...*** keep dreaming NYC and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's gonna be a system somewhat past it's peak, large expansive and maturing, which is what helps push the qpf shield this far afield into SNE in the first place So yeah a long duration light/mod event and not a great thing for the coastal plain. ORH would probably jackpot as usual. Precip rates suck though. Not good for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Hes off his meds Wxrisk.com **** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...*** keep dreaming NYC and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah... verbatim the Euro probably isn't much accumulation for many spots in SNE. That's been the trap most of the winter and the biggest reason people crap on the GFS. A compromise of all the others is the way to go at least through the 18z. the thing about this event is the Euro appears to have done poorly with almost every feature involved, very unusual. Note the changes to the bottom loaded ULL this run - a characteristic of the GFS runs. It's still not quite there with the feature rotating through New England, and it continues to run after run pull the northern s/w near the border west causing a better alignment. Worst performance I can remember by it, and perhaps a red flag towards the GFS. But for now, this is playing out like all the other systems this winter where the Euro was woefully suppressed. In all of those cases NCEP went wild for awhile (gfs/nam) only to come back to the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Prepare for power outages ESP inland Oh boy, here we go! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Prepare for power outages ESP inlandTo be fair Tolland needs to always be prepared for outages...even under high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Wxrisk.com **** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...***keep dreaming NYC and CT Look how he prefaces it though. Does not mention RI or MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Wxrisk.com **** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...***keep dreaming NYC and CT Being wrong is not the problem, refusing to admit you're wrong is the problem... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah the trend is obvious. The thing is, normally that retro phase stuff would not work, but this ULl is so massive, it allows it to happen and nail us on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Prepare for power outages ESP inlandHow about those posts earlier about the GFS just adding confusion and being a worthless model? ECM wouldn't argue for power outages inland, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Wxrisk.com **** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...*** keep dreaming NYC and CT He has turned into a laughing stock in the wx world lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From DT lol Wxrisk.com**** 12z MONDAY EUROPEAN ..STAYS SOUTH...***keep dreaming NYC and CT He refuses to acknowledge the north trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Guys, she's really not THAT bad looking. With the lights low and, oh by the way, she's not THAT heavy, and she's got a nice personality. She's actually a 6 out of 10...maybe 6.5 with the right makeup. These posts are offensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Kocin is the man too....love the update " THEREFORE...THE 12ZGFS PROVIDES NO NEW INFORMATION EXCEPT THAT IT HAS BEEN VERYCONSISTENT WITH ITSELF. HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT THE 12Z UKMET ANDCANADIAN EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT SUPPOSED TO INCLUDE IT YET...BUTBOTH SEEM TO SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS...WITH THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUINGITS TREND OF MOVING NORTH OF THE RUNS 24 HOURS AND GREATER. THE12Z CANADIAN DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE MORE TO SAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 All aboard the GFS one last hurrah for me i think. SNE crew, were playing with house money here,if we dont get it, no big loss, we had an epic February!! If we do, this is a bonus and will probably be the last major winter storm for me as i leave the east coast later this year. Its been a wonderful 9 years tracking these things with all of you. Ill never forget it!! just to repeat cause im an attention whore lol admitedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's gonna be a system somewhat past it's peak, large expansive and maturing, which is what helps push the qpf shield this far afield into SNE in the first place So yeah a long duration light/mod event and not a great thing for the coastal plain. ORH would probably jackpot as usual. I mean verbatim...I think the final outcome is more amped them this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To be fair Tolland needs to always be prepared for outages...even under high pressure. lol, Days and days of no school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is going to seem a bit "out there" to some folks/readers, but this hearkens back to an advance FAST (Forecast Analysis and Synoptic Techniques) II discussion during my Senior year up at UML. The atmosphere has a kind of "pseudo elasticity" about it. The whole of the domain has a hidden differential that pulls and contorts everywhere. In effect, systems that are significantly morphed over the Pacific domain can translate an effect on variables in the physical equations, transitively, half way around the world. Anyway, there is a hidden flavor of that going on with this thing. I mentioned earlier that the GFS was subtly turning the trough more negative relative to the surrounding medium across the last 4 cycles. But one thing I have noticed is that the ridge associated with the -NAO is morphing and the atmosphere is "sloshing" back west with wave lengths as a result. It's the stretching and contracting of one feature in one location, that is helping to induce changes in a different location - it's kind of like micro-teleconnective responses. Fascinating - really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Look how he prefaces it though. Does not mention RI or MA. Yeah E MA and RI get pretty solid qpf this run while further W into NYC doesn't do as well...but even E CT gets over a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How about those posts earlier about the GFS just adding confusion and being a worthless model? ECM wouldn't argue for power outages inland, lol. Many of us are going to have Been very wrong. But it's actually a win because we get a Oak Obliterating snowstorm out of it t. So losers win and winners win. We all win FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well I'll clearly be wrong about the euro with just one nudge north. But, tough to really argue either way with the gfs behavior lately and other guidance not buying. The red flag that made me uneasy were the ensembles. They led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't know if the storm will work out but one thing I am sure of is the trolling of DT will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah E MA and RI get pretty solid qpf this run while further W into NYC doesn't do as well...but even E CT gets over a half inch. What will you walk out into at South Station Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah E MA and RI get pretty solid qpf this run while further W into NYC doesn't do as well...but even E CT gets over a half inch. And if you look at his 1st guess map, he gives SE MA accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Many of us are going to have Been very wrong. But it's actually a win because we get a Oak Obliterating snowstorm out if it. So losers win and winners win. We all win FTW Except MPM, tight QPF gradient will result in his emotional unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well I'll clearly be wrong about the euro with just one nudge north. But, tough to really argue either way with the gfs behavior lately and other guidance not buying. The red flag that made me uneasy were the ensembles. They led the way. Euro ensembles getting better qpf in here at 3-4 day lead time than the OP is a bit of a red flag as well. The Euro ensembles were one reason I stayed pretty bullish in the inverted trough Feb 24 event...they really had a nice looking setup. Still though, even the Euro ensembles will probably end up way too far south at 3-4 days lead. We'll see if the GEFS stay the course in the next 24 hours...they definitely made it a head scratcher since 18z yesterday when they nearly all agreed on big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.