dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol. Too early to go with a straight GFS solution. Just because the euro came north it doesn't mean it is going to verify like the gfs op. I'd still play a blend, but it's fascinating to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah hate to say it but I'm starting to lean more toward to GFS. Euro showed a cave. I expected one of the 12z op runs to do it... but the trend is NW. Probably a mistake to fully embrace the GFS. This is about the time we start to see it trend SE. No other solution is wrapped up like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro will come north and gfs a little south? From here on out? If so, that's a big storm for SNE (at least eastern half or 2/3rds) and a big win for the GFS...like a 70/30 compromise from yesterday which is usually what the GFS loses by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL Nothing yet from DT on FB...so I guess he is deciding how to spin the 12Z Euro run. Sound the alarms. Tell your friends. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you look at the last several runs it's more like 700-1000 miles, it's been caving for more than a day. That said I'd still toss the GFS and go with a blend of all the others, until proven otherwise. Props to you and Tip for seeing the possibility of this N scenario days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Common sense would argue the GFS with its enormous eastern MA QPF is probably overdone... The Euro came N a bit compared to 00z, but not nearly the impact of the 12z GFS and its ensemble mean... I suspect, however, that since every member of the GFS ensembles are virtually identical, and it is the Euro that is the one that is differentiating, that should speak volumes in this situation. I've never liked the Euro's appeal on things over the last couple of days - I explained why. I could see 1/2 to 2/3rds, maybe 3/4 of the GFS QPF, and an at last compromised closer ECM solution ending up being the story with this thing, and that would be fine with the GFS performance on things for me. The problem is, the GFS is the extreme solution, but by shear statistical past, the extreme solution is the rarer realized. Much rarer actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A compromise is actually a decent storm lolMAN o man what will Eck think when he awakes from his night of cuddling in his feety pajamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah hate to say it but I'm starting to lean more toward to GFS. Euro showed a cave. I expected one of the 12z op runs to do it... but the trend is NW. I envision a live shot Wednesday night where you are in 3"/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro tries to get .75-1.00 contour into Boston, but idk how much of it is rain/snow...Prob colder than GFS...it would only take a few budges NW to be similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From here on out? If so, that's a big storm for SNE (at least eastern half or 2/3rds) and a big win for the GFS...like a 70/30 compromise from yesterday which is usually what the GFS loses by. I don't know...just talking out loud. My worry is the gfs collapse to the euro. Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro verbatim is a long duration but somewhat middling system but the change in one run is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Props to you and Tip for seeing the possibility of this N scenario days ago.-850 sds FTW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip rates suck though. Not good for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks more like the ec ens QPF now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ain't gonna cut it though. I know lol. Triple bun material from Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well we know the GFS all too well. It may well hiccup at 18Z and then bounce back at 0Z or 12Z tomorrow. Probably a mistake to fully embrace the GFS. This is about the time we start to see it trend SE. No other solution is wrapped up like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wouldn't give high 5s yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro verbatim is a long duration but somewhat middling system but the change in one run is enormous.winds are cranking at CC, it's coming Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip rates suck though. Not good for BOS. or the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would have expected a bigger leap than the EC made. But, no doubt this is a cave. It's not an utter failure in that it's adjusting for whatever bad runs in had to at least provide credence to an event much further north than it had. Suspect it will tick further north as well. Curious to see how it's ensembles look. But, for those who don't want to acknowledge its many failings during the course of this winter, please take note that the king has fallen. That's not saying the GFS solution is going to play out, but the EC is doing some pretty serious back tracking as it trys to catch up. Chalk it up to the winter of 2013--the great year of modeling fails. 30.8/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From here on out? If so, that's a big storm for SNE (at least eastern half or 2/3rds) and a big win for the GFS...like a 70/30 compromise from yesterday which is usually what the GFS loses by. Lol, Will I just gave ratios on thinking that were very similar - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably a mistake to fully embrace the GFS. This is about the time we start to see it trend SE. No other solution is wrapped up like it. Yeah... can't fully embrace it... but after a big Euro jump and 4 runs of GFS consistency (WITH ensemble support) have to almost hedge toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't know...just talking out loud. My worry is the gfs collapse to the euro. Wouldn't be the first time. Yeah but I'm starting to def favor the more amped solutions now. The Euro made a nice change from 00z. Its biggest change yet. That retro-phase of energy I mentioned 2-3 days ago now seems to be how we are going to get a good system. The Lakes phase once we got inside of D5-6 never was going to get it done...we needed a March 2001-esque retrophase to help get this ULL a bit more neutral/negative and clear downstream at the same time. It looks like this might be actually happening now...but obviously still some time left before getting too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip rates suck though. Not good for BOS. Yeah... verbatim the Euro probably isn't much accumulation for many spots in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man that's a big jump north. 100s of miles. That is a cave Guys, she's really not THAT bad looking. With the lights low and, oh by the way, she's not THAT heavy, and she's got a nice personality. She's actually a 6 out of 10...maybe 6.5 with the right makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 All aboard the GFS one last hurrah for me i think. SNE crew, were playing with house money here,if we dont get it, no big loss, we had an epic February!! If we do, this is a bonus and will probably be the last major winter storm for me as i leave the east coast later this year. Its been a wonderful 9 years tracking these things with all of you. Ill never forget it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hard to ignore the trending Scott, whether it goes all the way is still up in the air. Ens to me will tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Prepare for power outages ESP inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip rates suck though. Not good for BOS. Yeah temp profiles are only less of a concern if things get heavy like the GFS is showing. If it's only falling light-to-moderately... blegh for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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