CTWeatherFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT laughing at the GFS. Nervous laughter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET is probalby a bigger hit vs CMC but who can tell... I agree...Ukie would probably look really nice if we could go one more panel or two after the 72h panel....still not quite GFS territory but more solid than the nuisance event (maybe 3-6?) the GGEM shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT 12Z CMC STAYS SOUTH -- MOSTLY -- HUGE SNOWS FOR WEST CENTRAL VA .. NE VA .. DCA ... INTO MUCH OF MD KEEPS 90% OF SNOW OUT OF NYC CT LONG ISLAND MASS .. again LOOK at the data image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a good point. I texted this to Phil earlier that this isn't just a GFS blip... it's been 4 runs in a row with ensemble support. And the Euro's been hell bent on the southern solution for like 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And the Euro's been hell bent on the southern solution for like 3 days now. Yeah it's one of the biggest discrepancies I can remember for this time frame (i.e. within 60 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT laughing at the GFS.How much rain is he expecting in Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wxrisk.com*** ALERT 12Z CMC STAYS SOUTH -- MOSTLY -- HUGE SNOWS FOR WEST CENTRAL VA .. NE VA .. DCA ... INTO MUCH OF MDKEEPS 90% OF SNOW OUT OF NYC CT LONG ISLAND MASS .. again LOOK at the data image Hes so full of himself...I used to enjoy him, he totally ignores the huge shift north the GGEM made, somehow spins it into matching his own thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT laughing at the GFS. To be fair, it does seem a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Speaking of DT, one of his best lines ever was about 5 days before 1/22 when everything was south of here and a miss after the euro came out. "The 50/50 low is gone, the system clobbers New England, I'm going to blow my brains out" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT clealy not buying the GFS Wxrisk.com *** ALERT 12Z CMC STAYS SOUTH -- MOSTLY -- HUGE SNOWS FOR WEST CENTRAL VA .. NE VA .. DCA ... INTO MUCH OF MD KEEPS 90% OF SNOW OUT OF NYC CT LONG ISLAND MASS .. again LOOK at the data image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I've managed to not become remotely emotionally invested in this storm. Going to be awesome to watch unfold. For all of the hysterics, seems NYC and BOS have an even money shot to get more snow than RIC, right? Even if it's like 4" to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT 12Z CMC STAYS SOUTH -- MOSTLY -- HUGE SNOWS FOR WEST CENTRAL VA .. NE VA .. DCA ... INTO MUCH OF MDKEEPS 90% OF SNOW OUT OF NYC CT LONG ISLAND MASS .. again LOOK at the data image Blatantly wrong but anyone looking at the GGEM can see that. Look at 84 now vs 96 last night, LOL. And the Euro's been hell bent on the southern solution for like 3 days now. Not really. In effect maybe, but it's trended as quickly north as the Euro ever does. It's steadily lifted the ULL out faster while pulling back the northern stream energy. The missing piece of the puzzle was the s/w that was off our coast last night that rotates around. Suspect it'll have that this run, and the Euro will finally come to the SNE GTG. Until the Euro runs toss the Euro and GFS, go with the CMC/UK for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 elevations do how did 35 inches melt in a colder than normal Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets not forget the JMA has had big hit for a day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To be fair, it does seem a bit much. Yeah. But he's denying any northward trends the models are showing. Sticking with the bowling ball east idea. Riding the op Euro hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Walt Drag DRAG SPECIAL 12 PM AFD!!! **POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD** THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OUR INTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AGAIN AT 330 PM. THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIME AVAILS. IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM. 500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS IN THE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES. HAZARDS: TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND the FORTUNE THAT ITS NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED NORTH. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE IN THE TIDE SECTION. HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS. EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets not forget the JMA has had big hit for a day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MAJOR PREDICTION - I now Know that this storm will be no better than "OK" for us. This methodology has worked like a charm this season. My Friend, Hallie, from Texas, who isn't really a fan of our region, come up to do a 1 year Masters at BU. In the time she has been in Boston, she has seen about 10" of snow: All the time she has been here, the models show something, and it doesn't really pan out. But - She went on a 2 week vacation in late December and Missed - The Dec. 29th Bombogenisis Storm! She had to go to a funeral out of Nowhere and had to leave February 7th, and came back on February 11th RIGHT as the Snow changed to rain on that Monday morning!! Literally - Missed the Biblical Blizzard of 2013! She is leaving Thursday morning for Spring Break - Perfect Right!?!? Except - The storm is supposed to be in Full Swing by then - Hence: No Good Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice grab Ginx. Man do we miss those AFD's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 3 snowstorms in 4 weeks would be awesome!!! Windy here in Boston today. Temp is 42 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 im not that high and I still do elevations do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MAJOR PREDICTION - I now Know that this storm will be no better than "OK" for us. This methodology has worked like a charm this season. My Friend, Hallie, from Texas, who isn't really a fan of our region, come up to do a 1 year Masters at BU. In the time she has been in Boston, she has seen about 10" of snow: All the time she has been here, the models show something, and it doesn't really pan out. But - She went on a 2 week vacation in late December and Missed - The Dec. 29th Bombogenisis Storm! She had to go to a funeral out of Nowhere and had to leave February 7th, and came back on February 11th RIGHT as the Snow changed to rain on that Monday morning!! Literally - Missed the Biblical Blizzard of 2013! She is leaving Thursday morning for Spring Break - Perfect Right!?!? Except - The storm is supposed to be in Full Swing by then - Hence: No Good Storm. Tell her to move her flight up in case it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Walt Drag DRAG SPECIAL 12 PM AFD!!! **POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD** THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OUR INTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AGAIN AT 330 PM. THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIME AVAILS. IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM. 500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS IN THE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES. HAZARDS: TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND the FORTUNE THAT ITS NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED NORTH. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE IN THE TIDE SECTION. HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS. EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY. Nice read. Link http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just throwing it out there, the gfs verbatim is mostly rain in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I miss Drag. That man forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if it ends up even like last nights Euro ENS it'll have shifted about 1000 miles in a few runs. Not bad. What did last night's Euro Ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just throwing it out there, the gfs verbatim is mostly rain in Boston. Actually it's not. Some of it is but at its' peak it's pounding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 did you write that lol Walt DragDRAG SPECIAL 12 PM AFD!!!**POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD**THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OUR INTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCT AGAIN AT 330 PM.THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIME AVAILS.IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM.500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS IN THE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.HAZARDS:TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND the FORTUNE THAT ITS NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED NORTH.COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE IN THE TIDE SECTION.HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS. EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I really find it hard to believe walt thinks the GFS has been better than the Euro all the way from Sandy to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice grab Ginx. Man do we miss those AFD's So I guess there are a few mets who still use the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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