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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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A GFS solution is a real pasty snow - it's harder to verify blizzards with larger aggregates that are glued together by 32F isotherms.   Even with wind blowing it around, it will be harder to verify a blizzard in the non-hyperbolic terminology of this when we don't have the "saw dust" dryness to work with.   

 

Details details details....

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I love how you have been tying a noose nearly all winter long, yet have ~30" more inches than I do. :lol:

 

 

lol, And it has been just as useless as last winters snow, A lot of bad luck with all these storms timing wise and results after, My snow pack is 8", Rain storms after snow storms, Above normal temps, Ground surfaces thawed, It goes on

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Ok everyone. The GFS and it's Ensemble mean are very fun to look at, but realistically what should we expect with the rest of today's runs.  

 

We should probably expect the Euro to come northward a bit towards the GFS and it's ensembles.  But we should also expect that the 18z GFS trends back towards the northward Euro solution.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want what the GFS is selling.  I just want to keep expectations in check.

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Scraper...same as before.

It seems alot of this is 2 issues:

1. Interaction with what was thought to be phantom system in NY state.

2. Much broader expanse of heavy qpf away from low center vs normal.

The path of the system even on GFS is normally a scaper.

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Ok everyone. The GFS and it's Ensemble mean are very fun to look at, but realistically what should we expect with the rest of today's runs.  

 

We should probably expect the Euro to come northward a bit towards the GFS and it's ensembles.  But we should also expect that the 18z GFS trends back towards the northward Euro solution.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want what the GFS is selling.  I just want to keep expectations in check.

 

Nice thought, but impossible in weenie land.  I agree, a compromise seems to be the most obvious and logical solution. 

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consistency is important right now and the gfs has shown a major/historic event for 3-4 runs. we will see but it makes a difference that the other models are coming around slowly to its point of view.

Ok everyone. The GFS and it's Ensemble mean are very fun to look at, but realistically what should we expect with the rest of today's runs.  

 

We should probably expect the Euro to come northward a bit towards the GFS and it's ensembles.  But we should also expect that the 18z GFS trends back towards the northward Euro solution.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want what the GFS is selling.  I just want to keep expectations in check.

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consistency is important right now and the gfs has shown a major/historic event for 3-4 runs. we will see but it makes a difference that the other models are coming around slowly to its point of view.

 

This is a good point. I texted this to Phil earlier that this isn't just a GFS blip... it's been 4 runs in a row with ensemble support. 

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