prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Models are finally coming into agreement for a Winter Storm to impact parts of ND, SD & MN starting late sundayand lasting through tuesday. Alot of areas could recieve 6-8" with parts of ND getting 12+. North Dakota looks to be the jackpot for the start of the event...GFS & CMC at 12z Monday edit: 0z euro has the northern half of ND in 0.50 - 0.75 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Normally I would call this a "classic" long lived frontogenesis events, supper clipper if you will, but this one is slightly unusual. The most unusual is the lack of a true polar front which most of these form on...usually in December-January. The second is the southern stream interaction which will act to form a lee low across the central plains...which will help reinforce the frontal zone as the parent waves arrives. This is going to be an impressive long lived event with the potential for widespread 8-12" snow amounts across a long swath from N Central ND into MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Normally I would call this a "classic" long lived frontogenesis events, supper clipper if you will, but this one is slightly unusual. The most unusual is the lack of a true polar front which most of these form on...usually in December-January. The second is the southern stream interaction which will act to form a lee low across the central plains...which will help reinforce the frontal zone as the parent waves arrives. This is going to be an impressive long lived event with the potential for widespread 8-12" snow amounts across a long swath from N Central ND into MN. 12z models still peg the n half of ND for the jackpot thumping...the inverted trough snows has shifted east for the e half of MN later on monday. My area gets the accumulated snows from the waa later tonight so i am hoping for a few inches from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN1109 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013...SNOW SPREADING IN TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY....A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTBEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILLBRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES TO MUCH OF CENTRALAND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME STORMTOTALS COULD APPROACH 12 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE PRIMARY SNOWBANDS SET UP.THIS SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE SPLIT UP INTO TWO WAVES OF MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOW. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAYMORNING...WITH A SECOND ROUND EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR APERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES.MNZ041-042-047>049-055>058-065>067-075-083-092-040115-/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0005.130304T0000Z-130305T1200Z//O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0003.130304T0300Z-130305T1800Z/DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-NICOLLET-BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...ST. PETER...MANKATO...BLUE EARTH1109 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONCST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PMTHIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING: TWO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACTS: SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* OTHER IMPACTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My latest 16Z TrendCast Output for ND region (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) Minot Weather Progression: Looking for light snow beginning around 00Z, then increasing to moderate snow from 03Z to 10Z, with accumulation of 4-5" during this time frame. Visibilities will be around 1/4 mile winds will be out of the East around 10-15Kts. Grand Forks Weather Progression: Snow will start around 03Z, then increasing to moderate snow from 10Z to 14Z, with accumulation of 3-4" during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Congrats. Hope to see some good pics. Leave us some scraps down this way, will ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even the NAM (sorry Baro...haha) has shifted a bit west at 18z it looks like. Looks like I may get thumped a bit too. Seeing we are on page 1 with less than 10 posts, us Northerners are just too used to these 6 to 12" events and treat them "ho hum" like. Unlike the other regions, where garnering dozens of pages for a bit of a snow threat is the norm and there are less than a dozen northern tier regional members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Front swinging through Billings, MT. KBIL 032147Z 31033G51KT 1/4SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -TSPLGSSN FG SCT007 BKN032CB OVC070 01/M01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2135 WSHFT 2114 RAB34E47PLB39GSB42E43B47SNB43 TSB43 PRESRR OCNL LTGICCG TS OHD MOV E P0000 I1002 $ This event is going to be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even the NAM (sorry Baro...haha) has shifted a bit west at 18z it looks like. Looks like I may get thumped a bit too. Seeing we are on page 1 with less than 10 posts, us Northerners are just too used to these 6 to 12" events and treat them "ho hum" like. Unlike the other regions, where garnering dozens of pages for a bit of a snow threat is the norm and there are less than a dozen northern tier regional members.. I keep forgetting, Red Wing area? I agree, NAM was too far NE, the northern track across ND was what I was referencing. I think SE MN is going to be one of the jackpot zones as there will be a well defined inverted stationary trof axis as the upper low dives SE and the front stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Front swinging through Billings, MT. KBIL 032147Z 31033G51KT 1/4SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -TSPLGSSN FG SCT007 BKN032CB OVC070 01/M01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2135 WSHFT 2114 RAB34E47PLB39GSB42E43B47SNB43 TSB43 PRESRR OCNL LTGICCG TS OHD MOV E P0000 I1002 $ This event is going to be fun to watch unfold. Yeah, SPC issued a MD for a short time for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, SPC issued a MD for a short time for that area. Wild weather, a severe cell with snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow, how time flies by......from the MPX 3/3/13 afternoon AFD. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TOIMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD6-10 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS NEAR A FOOT FOR IN AND AROUNDSOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. FOR THE TWIN CITIES... THIS WILL BE THE FIRSTMARCH SNOWSTORM TO PRODUCE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW SINCE THEMARCH 21-23 STORM FROM 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The waa snow has started here...this looks to be the main event for my area as part 2 of the storm looks to be mainly east of here late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really light snow started falling here in GFK about an hour ago but it has since stopped. Winds out of the SE at about 15 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't expect the heavier stuff to really start falling in GFK until after 2 AM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ton of dry air across northern MN advecting trying to advect westward is stopping the snow dead in its tracks along the valley. Think things will eventually moisten up and we'll see some fairly heavy snow this morning, but I think any chance of hitting that 10" mark is nearly out the window now. Still a 6" storm would be the largest that I've seen since I've been up here. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ton of dry air across northern MN advecting trying to advect westward is stopping the snow dead in its tracks along the valley. Think things will eventually moisten up and we'll see some fairly heavy snow this morning, but I think any chance of hitting that 10" mark is nearly out the window now. Still a 6" storm would be the largest that I've seen since I've been up here. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of hours. Easterly flow FTL in the Northern Plains...it is always a worry. Models never seem to handle it well, especially when there is no GOM fetch to feed the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes working mids and the dry air is killing us..... so lowered snow totals I would say GF lost about 3-4 inches from what would have been so 6 would be a good estimate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just checked the MPX point forecast for the Red Wing area. In the 8 - 16" jackpot zone for the event....for now. Nothing here yet, still rather dry with a DP of 10, RH @ 50 with a light SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Had 2.3" with the waa snow...expecting another 1-3" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Actually getting drier here, DP is now 7 with RH @40%, nothing yet. Winds still SE but have tick up a mph or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 945 AM CST MON MAR 04 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0944 AM HEAVY SNOW DEVILS LAKE 48.11N 98.87W 03/04/2013 E11.0 INCH RAMSEY ND BROADCAST MEDIA 0925 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 N SARLES 48.99N 99.00W 03/04/2013 M12.0 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mayville radar was down earlier this morning so UND powered up their radar around 9am this morning. radar.atmos.und.edu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Report of 4.4 inches at the airport in GFK so far. Sure as hell seems like we've gotten more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Report of 4.4 inches at the airport in GFK so far. Sure as hell seems like we've gotten more than that. That was likely the 18z amount....I saw NWS GF at 4 inches at 18z At 00z the amount at NWS was 6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Snowfall summary so far http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 thru 06z 3/5... NWS Grand Forks 7.1 Grand Forks airport 8.4 Fargo 3.2 12-15 inches Langdon-Devils Lake region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Total snowfall since it started sunday evening is 7.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My total as of 10:30am was about 10". I missed out on the WAA snows, got zilch yesterday but just 40 miles to the west and southwest got 3 to 5 inches. Winding down might get another 1/2" out of it. Pines are a bit stressed thankfully it's not cement here and not real windy yet, I'd guess a ratio of15 to 1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 According to NWS Grand Forks we set a single day record for snowfall yesterday with 7 inches on campus at UND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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