dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i am not attributing this to DTK, but there are a lot of math minds who don't believe in intangibles....like heaters in poker or blackjack or even horse racing...that there is no such thing as running good or running bad.....intangibles are very very real....I am not convinced that 18z is as good a run in our backyard and we all know the DC split exists.... It's okay, I think it is a good discussion either way. In fact, if you can think of any particularly bad 18z "fluke" runs from any quasi-recent cases, I'd be happy to look into it and see if we can't find something that may have gone awry with observation usage/assimilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i am not attributing this to DTK, but there are a lot of math minds who don't believe in intangibles....like heaters in poker or blackjack or even horse racing...that there is no such thing as running good or running bad.....intangibles are very very real....I am not convinced that 18z is as good a run in our backyard and we all know the DC split exists.... in winter.. probably. i was talking about t-storms though which i think it random and people just notice when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That sounding is snow. And the position of the Low on that map is perfect for us up here. Wish it was 36 hours out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 everyone in this forum knows at least the basics of how to read a skew-t....this isnt the Philly or NYC forum heh. i didn't even force myself to learn to read a skew t till like 2 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs mean is over a inch of liquid for the entire dca metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS'ed! Snowquestration FTW. The sounding Matt posted is certainly a wet snow if the precip is falling at any decent sort of rate (~1mi vis or lower I'd guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. I suck at reading them too, but that seems like snow to me. Correct. I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 heh. i didn't even force myself to learn to read a skew t till like 2 yrs ago. Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. Correct. GFS_3_2013030218_F90_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Am I correct in that it shows a ne wind at the surface? That never hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. if it helps, the red line is the temperature and the green line is the dewpoint. when they're very close together it's saturated and likely precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. Correct. ...and hopefully it'll come down hard enough to drag the 0C line into the ground GFS_3_2013030218_F90_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. They are also very confusing to me as well. IAN posted a great guide a while back but I lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS'ed! Snowquestration FTW. The sounding Matt posted is certainly a wet snow if the precip is falling at any decent sort of rate (~1mi vis or lower I'd guess). I've been think along the lines of "sequesteurno". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Am I correct in that it shows a ne wind at the surface? That never hurts. East wind right at the surface, NE wind just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs mean is over a inch of liquid for the entire dca metro area Baltimore is very close to a inch. And .75 just north of mason Dixon line west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 if it helps, the red line is the temperature and the green line is the dewpoint. when they're very close together it's saturated and likely precip is falling. Hey, thanks for that. It does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 They are also very confusing to me as well. IAN posted a great guide a while back but I lost it. Winter precip http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php I think this was the other http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm thinking this could be like the psuhoffman storm in terms of temps/paste job if 18z is right.....hopefully we can manage to match the 5 inches I got during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm thinking this could be like the psuhoffman storm in terms of temps/paste job if 18z is right.....hopefully we can manage to match the 5 inches I got during that storm. 5? I got like 9-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i think it is shortsighted to talk about verification scores and what data is ingested in the model and how by definition it should perform better than 12z in the means since it is 6 hours later....when we all have anecdotal evidence and experience that it is not as skilled in our backyard and often has goofy solutions that are an outlier....In fact there is a certain renowned met who posts in our forum, who has a less than glowing opinion of the off GFS runs, especially 18z, but I will let him speak for himself on that if he wants to this is by no means a slight...but its a good example of "selection bias"....one may view a large swing at 12z as a "trend" but a large swing at 18z is considered an "outlier", mainly because of the biased opinion (which may at one point been a valid observation of a bias) of the subject.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Winter precip http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php I think this was the other http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html I'm away so i can't bookmark it but I will hopefully remember to when I get home, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 5? I got like 9-10 inches It was compacting like crazy I think the maximum snow depth I measured in Columbia Heights was 5.5 inches, I didn't use a snowboard so the actual total was probably a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs mean is over a inch of liquid for the entire dca metro area over 1.25" for DC metro with a 1.5"+ precip max just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm away so i can't bookmark it but I will hopefully remember to when I get home, thank you. You should be able to bookmark those links on your phone... and thanks Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Could be a similar profile tho that storm moved much faster. If this was early Feb we'd be beside ourselves... Well more than now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 over 1.25" for DC metro with a 1.5"+ precip max just south not to mention a great deal of consistency among the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It was compacting like crazy I think the maximum snow depth I measured in Columbia Heights was 5.5 inches, I didn't use a snowboard so the actual total was probably a bit higher. I got 6.75" ~0.5 - 0.75 fell earlier in the day IIRC, and I measured just over 6" in Mt Pleasant by the library Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Man the ens members look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 over 1.25" for DC metro with a 1.5"+ precip max just south 18z GEFS QPF mean blowup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 not to mention a great deal of consistency among the individual members. You beat me to it, but yes, great consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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