chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i think it is shortsighted to talk about verification scores and what data is ingested in the model and how by definition it should perform better than 12z in the means since it is 6 hours later....when we all have anecdotal evidence and experience that it is not as skilled in our backyard and often has goofy solutions that are an outlier....In fact there is a certain renowned met who posts in our forum, who has a less than glowing opinion of the off GFS runs, especially 18z, but I will let him speak for himself on that if he wants to this is by no means a slight...but its a good example of "selection bias"....one may view a large swing at 12z as a "trend" but a large swing at 18z is considered an "outlier", mainly because of the biased opinion (which may at one point been a valid observation of a bias) of the subject.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Winter precip http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php I think this was the other http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html I'm away so i can't bookmark it but I will hopefully remember to when I get home, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 5? I got like 9-10 inches It was compacting like crazy I think the maximum snow depth I measured in Columbia Heights was 5.5 inches, I didn't use a snowboard so the actual total was probably a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm away so i can't bookmark it but I will hopefully remember to when I get home, thank you. You should be able to bookmark those links on your phone... and thanks Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Could be a similar profile tho that storm moved much faster. If this was early Feb we'd be beside ourselves... Well more than now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 over 1.25" for DC metro with a 1.5"+ precip max just south not to mention a great deal of consistency among the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Man the ens members look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 over 1.25" for DC metro with a 1.5"+ precip max just south 18z GEFS QPF mean blowup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 not to mention a great deal of consistency among the individual members. You beat me to it, but yes, great consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You should be able to bookmark those links on your phone... and thanks Ian Yea but unless they are on my home computer they are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I missed 18z run, what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I missed 18z run, what happened? I'm thinking you were wrong yesterday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 not to mention a great deal of consistency among the individual members. Where can i find the 18z individ ensembles? I dont see them on e-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I missed 18z run, what happened? GFS 18z plasters DC with 2" liquid. Debate whether its all snow or snow/rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Where can i find the 18z individ ensembles? I dont see them on e-wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes it did. There's even commentary on its completely different solution in the other thread. As for the NAM, relevant or not, it sure looks like it's about to explode on those 84 hour panels. And, as Mitch noted, it lines up very well with the SREFS. Neither may be useful, but it's an observation. Not trying to be a dick...but you're wrong. On 2/28 it had a northern vort path south of CHI....with a phase just south of Central VA, then a jump NE w/ NYC-SNE getting into the action. This was the first different solution that was north. The GFS and EURO then followed though not as amped. Maybe we are debating the same thing but it never took a GL phase path cutter. 18z GFS is legit....book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Haven't seen runs like this in years. Savor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 ***BREAKING NEWS**** TWC names our storm Winter Storm Saturn. Serious, serious biz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ***BREAKING NEWS**** TWC names our storm Winter Storm Saturn. Serious, serious biz I would have preferred Uranus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ***BREAKING NEWS**** TWC names our storm Winter Storm Saturn. Serious, serious biz One ring to rule them all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not trying to be a dick...but you're wrong. On 2/28 it had a northern vort path south of CHI....with a phase just south of Central VA, then a jump NE w/ NYC-SNE getting into the action. This was the first different solution that was north. The GFS and EURO then followed though not as amped. Maybe we are debating the same thing but it never took a GL phase path cutter. 18z GFS is legit....book it I'm on the phone, so I can't paste it, it's a locked topic so I can't quote it, but if you want to go back to the last long range thread, Feb 28, you'll see a post by PSUHoffman that starts "GGEM... in which he talks about the GGEM having the system in the lakes. I can't pull up any archived images of its runs, but it had a very northern solution about 3 days ago. I'll gladly accept it's solution now, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's gonna suck when I get 2.5", you get 6" and Ji gets 16" You're in Old Town? It's not on the Atlantic Ocean. I lived there for 6 years two blocks up from the water and shoveled plenty of snow. You won't have such a sharp drop off gradient if DC is able to get accumulating snow out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One ring to rule them all? No Sauron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK mets, the sounding graph looks good, but this text output says that the 0 line is around 500 meters above the ground, correct? so that's over 1500', which means it is likely not snow, at least per the article Ian posted am I wrong? PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 999. 72. 1.9 1.3 52.0 9.8 975. 275. 1.4 0.3 61.7 20.1 950. 484. 0.2 -0.6 69.7 25.7 925. 697. -1.1 -1.6 76.7 28.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would have preferred Uranus . Yeah, then the headline could be "DC breaks out of snow (Ur)anus, finally receives more than 2 inches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm on the phone, so I can't paste it, it's a locked topic so I can't quote it, but if you want to go back to the last long range thread, Feb 28, you'll see a post by PSUHoffman that starts "GGEM... in which he talks about the GGEM having the system in the lakes. I can't pull up any archived images of its runs, but it had a very northern solution about 3 days ago. I'll gladly accept it's solution now, however. Correct! That was when ther upper vort went thru the southern lakes(CHI) instead of the previous Iowa solution. It then phased in southern VA and went NE with snow into NYC and SNE. Every other solution at that time took the vort OTS via South Carolina. The GGEM was the 1st model to key in on this. I think you are interpreting what was said by psu wrong. It was never a lakes cutter. I too will take the latest solution. You are going to get crushed bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. Correct. GFS_3_2013030218_F90_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Thanks! I feel like I've heard it explained many times, but for some reason I was able to grasp your explanation better. I know there's still a lot more to it, but at least I have a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not trying to be a dick...but you're wrong. On 2/28 it had a northern vort path south of CHI....with a phase just south of Central VA, then a jump NE w/ NYC-SNE getting into the action. This was the first different solution that was north. The GFS and EURO then followed though not as amped. Maybe we are debating the same thing but it never took a GL phase path cutter. 18z GFS is legit....book it Tried to post a pic. Didn't work. Here's a link http://meteocentre.com/models/get_arch_panel.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb You can get archived images there. You'll see it's early solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FWIW- gfs verification graph posted in sne forum shows that 18z at 96 scores better than 12z at 102. Makes sense overall because once you get inside of 5 days the errors that are pushed down the line in time become much more manageable. I don't believe the qpf output but the h5 and h85 track and strength sure look optimal to me. Another 24 hours of that and I'll almost be forced to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now, how much snow can the tarmac @ DCA melt on a 35F March day? Screw it, I'm putting in a special request to use American University for DCs total for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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