Fodie77 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks to be yet another Richmond screwjob Congrats if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 upper NW at 90 hours I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 new kensington PA and not a met and never seen you post here before,..dont let the door hit your interloping ass on the way out Sorry, I meant no disrespect. Just poking fun at how weenies in ALL regions spin the off hour runs to prop up the hope for snow. Very infrequent poster in the mid atlantic forum, but lurk pretty regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I do appreciate the info....since there is some conventional wisdom that the 18z runs are not as skilled...I will defer to you on this one...maybe these are old biases that no longer have any credence even in our backyard I've wondered about the global/NH type scores .. at least how useful they are to the everyday happenings in any one location like our backyards. I don't understand it all enough though to be honest.. I wish laymen wouldn't talk about it as if it's always meaningful because I don't think they understand it either. But in the end I bet a good part of it is the same stuff that makes us think there is a DC split, a Norman hole, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. huh???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. I suck at reading them too, but that seems like snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. The column is saturated up to 450 level which may imply good dendritic growth layer. The snow may partially melt near the ground but if it comes down fast, will drag down enough cold air to get the boundary layer to 32 - 34 degrees quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Remember on soundings skew-t chart the temperature lines run on an angle not vertical. Probably why people see them and think rain all the time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. Definitely a snow sounding. Wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I do appreciate the info....since there is some conventional wisdom that the 18z runs are not as skilled...I will defer to you on this one...maybe these are old biases that no longer have any credence even in our backyard That's why I have to provide that caveat that it doesn't hold for every event, especially when you break it down into something specific/regional. I think that the 00/12 UTC cycles are more prone to big shifts for forecasts in our back yard, because of the assimilation of high quality, high-vertical density raob data. By the way, goofy things do tend to happen with various runs of the regional systems, in particular the NAM I think, because they use partial cycling (i.e. they back up 12 hours, I think twice a day, and reset to the global model and spin back up to real-time). I suspect this leads to huge discontinuities (in terms of dprog/dt) for the 06/18 NAM runs ....at least that is my hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes please. North again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i am not attributing this to DTK, but there are a lot of math minds who don't believe in intangibles....like heaters in poker or blackjack or even horse racing...that there is no such thing as running good or running bad.....intangibles are very very real....I am not convinced that 18z is as good a run in our backyard and we all know the DC split exists.... It's okay, I think it is a good discussion either way. In fact, if you can think of any particularly bad 18z "fluke" runs from any quasi-recent cases, I'd be happy to look into it and see if we can't find something that may have gone awry with observation usage/assimilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i am not attributing this to DTK, but there are a lot of math minds who don't believe in intangibles....like heaters in poker or blackjack or even horse racing...that there is no such thing as running good or running bad.....intangibles are very very real....I am not convinced that 18z is as good a run in our backyard and we all know the DC split exists.... in winter.. probably. i was talking about t-storms though which i think it random and people just notice when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That sounding is snow. And the position of the Low on that map is perfect for us up here. Wish it was 36 hours out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 everyone in this forum knows at least the basics of how to read a skew-t....this isnt the Philly or NYC forum heh. i didn't even force myself to learn to read a skew t till like 2 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs mean is over a inch of liquid for the entire dca metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS'ed! Snowquestration FTW. The sounding Matt posted is certainly a wet snow if the precip is falling at any decent sort of rate (~1mi vis or lower I'd guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suck at reading soundings, but by the looks of it from looking at some other info it seems 18z GFS was pretty much all rain for DCA. I hope I'm wrong. It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. I suck at reading them too, but that seems like snow to me. Correct. I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 heh. i didn't even force myself to learn to read a skew t till like 2 yrs ago. Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. Correct. GFS_3_2013030218_F90_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Am I correct in that it shows a ne wind at the surface? That never hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. if it helps, the red line is the temperature and the green line is the dewpoint. when they're very close together it's saturated and likely precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's a mixed bag to start, but then goes to snow. Correct. ...and hopefully it'll come down hard enough to drag the 0C line into the ground GFS_3_2013030218_F90_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I've highlighted the freezing mark with the black line, Swim. With the exception of the bottom 800 feet or so, everything is well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, I know very, very little. I dont even know the difference in the green and red. I just look at them and hope they all stay left of the 0 degree line. They are also very confusing to me as well. IAN posted a great guide a while back but I lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS'ed! Snowquestration FTW. The sounding Matt posted is certainly a wet snow if the precip is falling at any decent sort of rate (~1mi vis or lower I'd guess). I've been think along the lines of "sequesteurno". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Am I correct in that it shows a ne wind at the surface? That never hurts. East wind right at the surface, NE wind just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs mean is over a inch of liquid for the entire dca metro area Baltimore is very close to a inch. And .75 just north of mason Dixon line west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 if it helps, the red line is the temperature and the green line is the dewpoint. when they're very close together it's saturated and likely precip is falling. Hey, thanks for that. It does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 They are also very confusing to me as well. IAN posted a great guide a while back but I lost it. Winter precip http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php I think this was the other http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm thinking this could be like the psuhoffman storm in terms of temps/paste job if 18z is right.....hopefully we can manage to match the 5 inches I got during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm thinking this could be like the psuhoffman storm in terms of temps/paste job if 18z is right.....hopefully we can manage to match the 5 inches I got during that storm. 5? I got like 9-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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