wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We'll probably start picking up on some NAM goodness around 0330. GFS closer to 0530 for what we're looking for. Next shot will be between 930am-11am for the 12z suite - NAM/GFS/ENS/CMC/UKIE/EURO I suspect there will be no objections for not chasing down the KMA/JMA/CRAS? I'll be around, not like I'm going anywhere...working 3rd 16 hour shift in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. I am in Europe so i am up and would greatly appreciate details of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am in Europe so i am up and would greatly appreciate details of them. No sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well in that case congrats Atlantic ocean!! It almost looked like extreme NE MD had less precip than 12z with everyone else more. Next we'll watch a dry v develop over the area. Kidding on the last part... Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can't believe that the 0Z GFS and zero of it's ENS members looked anything like EURO. All are north. 0Z GFS must have been smoking the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I may have just cracked this storm's code. There's one crucial difference between the the "south" camp (NAM/Euro) and the North camp (CMC/GFS/SREF). It almost seems obvious in hindsight. It took awhile to nail it down but I'm almost positive that the breakdown of the cut-off low in ME is the key. If it stays north or breaks down and slides due east, then we have a GFS-esk scenario. If it slides south due to an interaction between a tiny s/w rotating around the main ULL off the coast then it sinks south and "chases" after the s/w, then it's a NAM/Euro scenario. This senario lowers heights out ahead of our bowling ball, yada yada, and we have a H5 center that exits off Norfolk/OBX.I wish I had time to put together a slideshow but I have a paper due at 10AM and just don't have time. Of course, I might be just going crazy from sleep deprivation. Which is a total possibility. Edit: Oh the strength of the southern s/w matters too, maybe to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I may have just cracked this storm's code. There's one crucial difference between the the "south" camp (NAM/Euro) and the North camp (CMC/GFS/SREF). It almost seems obvious in hindsight. It took awhile to nail it down but I'm almost positive that the breakdown of the cut-off low in ME is the key. If it stays north or breaks down and slides due east, then we have a GFS-esk scenario. If it slides south due to an interaction between a tiny s/w rotating around the main ULL off the coast then it sinks south and "chases" after the s/w, then it's a NAM/Euro scenario. This senario lowers heights out ahead of our bowling ball, yada yada, and we have a H5 center that exits off Norfolk/OBX. I wish I had time to put together a slideshow but I have a paper due at 10AM and just don't have time. Of course, I might be just going crazy from sleep deprivation. Which is a total possibility. Edit: Oh the strength of the southern s/w matters too, maybe to a lesser extent. Took a look and see what you mean. UKMET also shots the block out quicker and is almost close to the GFS at upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm in Hawaii and I have no idea what's going on. When I check my NWS forecast, it looks like a rain/mix event, and you guys are talking significant snow. Which is right? Flight gets back Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm in Hawaii and I have no idea what's going on. When I check my NWS forecast, it looks like a rain/mix event, and you guys are talking significant snow. Which is right? Flight gets back Thursday morning. Tomorrow you'll probably be looking into what time your flight lands...and where. You may find it to be important, because yes - we're quibbling over 75-100 miles at this juncture for the M/A (New England can be another conversation) but nevertheless, For Centreville -> I'd be paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If my theory holds water, this run should be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is what I'm on about... Top is 6z, bottom is 0z. Pretty different for being back to back runs IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If my theory holds water, this run should be further north. Your theory holds water. I posted an equation a few pages back - You've got about 80% of it wrapped up in that bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM similar enough without making any notation through 24 (compared to 30 from the 0z) EDIT: A tick warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some ULL interaction is kickstarting, and @wxmeddler's theory looks to be holding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some ULL interaction is kickstarting, and @wxmeddler's theory looks to be holding I just compared the 0z @30hrs to 6z at 24 hrs.. Holy cow, what a difference! I should of had the idea earlier! FWIW, My paper is not getting done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just compared the 0z @30hrs to 6z at 24 hrs.. Holy cow, what a difference! I should of had the idea earlier! FWIW, My paper is not getting done.. hahaha. Perhaps if you were more sleep deprived, you'd have even better ideas! (My physics=AWESOME...my ideas, not so great) lol This is coming north with the primary, but I don't think precip will follow as strongly until 12z. Doesn't look like it's got a handle on the swinging of the 'hammer' so to speak through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Watches just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Watches just issued. THOSE JERKS. Make a liar out of me, they will. 36 is trucking right on through on the surface. Looking good. "...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAYEVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS." I expect Mount Holly will take care of Cecil Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ahh, with that pesky ME ULL gone, we can finally get some decent difluent ridging out front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. Indeed. Though, the NAM is puzzling right now. It looks like there's too much emphasis on the ULL. Too much suction, to use a 5th grade term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Indeed. Though, the NAM is puzzling right now. It looks like there's too much emphasis on the ULL. Too much suction, to use a 5th grade term. Yeah for all that shear/vorticity on the bottom side, there isn't a lot of height falls in the left exit. Conservation of Vorticity I believe that is.. Edit: I meant conservation of potential vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah for all that shear/vorticity on the bottom side, there isn't a lot of height falls in the left exit. Conservation of Vorticity I believe that is.. The word you're looking for is 'Hoarding' haha. But yes. Nevertheless, profiles show instability abounding by 54 near DC. If I were a betting man, I'd say that is when you'd want to start counting QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. When this is all over you should write a paper on your theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 00z nam panic can be put to rest wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 00z nam panic can be put to rest wow Why are you up? I haven't even looked at the NAM. I'm scared. What's it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The uvvs are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why are you up? I haven't even looked at the NAM. I'm scared. What's it show? It's hecstacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam says hello to GFS...BOOM nice 12-15 hr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.