real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what happens at the surface as the low exits land is much better than 12z...you can see it in the precip shield..it is healthier and wetter in general..the precip shield is oriented better and the 1" countour jogged north by maybe 40 miles....the storm is much more east/west oriented now....at 12z the sfc completely fell apart Subtle improvement overall but not eyepopping. Slp goes off the coast a bit further n. Precip is still there. I can see how it can go more towards the gfs. Not up the coast or anything. Just getting the axis of heaviest precip closer. Gfs seems dead set on putting us in a major deform area. Skeptical of course but the euro did not take away that possibility or move in the wrong direction. Today was really good news door to door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I actually like the slow down on the euro, possible more time to phase with the northern stream, and more time for the blocking high to get out of the way to inch a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? .98 for DCA So, yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wonder what the GFS is smoking? THis has got to be a letdown for NE. I mean, I want the GFS to win for obvious reasons, but the main reason would be to see it score a huge coup on the Euro. I'd like to see DT shut his mouth for one thing. lol. If the GFS was somehow right DT would look like like a major idiot for bashing it so hard. Please just this one time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Could help some that sun really has not worked over the ground for a while and getting about 12 hours per day into Tues. that temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Subtle improvement overall but not eyepopping. Slp goes off the coast a bit further n. Precip is still there. I can see how it can go more towards the gfs. Not up the coast or anything. Just getting the axis of heaviest precip closer. Gfs seems dead set on putting us in a major deform area. Skeptical of course but the euro did not take away that possibility or move in the wrong direction. Today was really good news door to door. subtle is right....the euro is a rock.....there is a reason mets spend so much money getting its products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Subtle improvement overall but not eyepopping. Slp goes off the coast a bit further n. Precip is still there. I can see how it can go more towards the gfs. Not up the coast or anything. Just getting the axis of heaviest precip closer. Gfs seems dead set on putting us in a major deform area. Skeptical of course but the euro did not take away that possibility or move in the wrong direction. Today was really good news door to door. I don't know that it'll translate more 'toward the GFS' other than on the surface, so to speak. On our side of the fence it's all about real estate: LOWcation LOWcation LOWcation. That, and how fast it starts counting backwards. But yes, generally speaking - Flakes look to be a pretty secure bet at this point. But I think this will come down to a situation where watches get issued on a dice roll in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 subtle is right....the euro is a rock.....there is a reason mets spend so much money getting its products Where was the low at 12Z from some graphics I see this run the low is just east of VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? from i heard yeah about an inch but the precipitation shield a tad north and east, still not as ample as the GFS. It also hold holds onto the tight qpf gradient... looks like someones going to get screwed and someone else is going to get walloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where was the low at 12Z from some graphics I see this run the low is just east of VA beach. jumped se to hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't know that it'll translate more 'toward the GFS' other than on the surface, so to speak. On our side of the fence it's all about real estate: LOWcation LOWcation LOWcation. That, and how fast it starts counting backwards. But yes, generally speaking - Flakes look to be a pretty secure bet at this point. But I think this will come down to a situation where watches get issued on a dice roll in some places. I see WSWs for I-81 corridor and SW of Warrenton being issued in the morning package (either the 3 or 9 am)... further NE will have to wait till after the 12z suite IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Could help some that sun really has not worked over the ground for a while and getting about 12 hours per day into Tues. that temps are below freezing. One of those funny situations where you can tell all your friends (if, in this example the forecast were locked down tight) 6" would fall...but they may gripe that they only saw 4. But between compaction, and what got lost to melting - 4 on the ground, 6 in your gauge. I think any of the light QPF from the onset is lost. Regardless of track, unless some serious intensity shows up that I'm not seeing. So if the final guess comes out at .85 - but 3 hours of light .13 QPF come to be. I'd throw that away, plus another bit for ground moisture/warmth. Then adjust for your ratios. So that .85 would probably turn into a 4-6" event, leaning ever closer to the 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 jumped se to hatteras So the low is like 25ish miles north. Hmm Euro is starting to get out of it's deadly range too. Tomorrow 12Z will be the real test of what will go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 they're going to be very conservative on issuing WSW tomorrow, even if things do turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I see WSWs for I-81 corridor and SW of Warrenton being issued in the morning package (either the 3 or 9 am)... further NE will have to wait till after the 12z suite IMO I said it earlier as well. LWX for the NRN tier of the CWA will probably hold tough until 2-3, I expect Mount Holly to issue WWA for their portions up in Cecil Co. But, This is a weekday storm we're talking about. So they'll cut closer to that 48 hour call than anything else. Even if they have to scale up later. But I concur with you. My gut tells me the Sweet spot is south of I-70, West of 270...and then head toward Roanoke with the wife and kiddies for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). Starting when? Yes - the GFS was a little less bullish, but it tends to ignore some crucial rules of thermodynamics when it feels like it. Boundary Layer temps come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i think the euro had some trouble with the set up of the deformation bands on that one, but then which model can accurately portrait that i have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even though it is too late this run for the NE there is a bit more phasing the run compared to 12Z and it gets the low ever so closer. 12Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). I think Euro did better up towards Boston and was more consistent, but was too aggressvie in bringing the heavy snow south into NYC and New Jersey. GFS did better around NYC and New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. Depends how fast I can get this paper done.. which at the moment is really slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even though it is too late this run for the NE there is a bit more phasing the run compared to 12Z and it gets the low ever so closer. 12Z 0Z You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different Bingo. Beat me to the punch. CTP had this up, but quickly redacted it. It was changed to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different I know that but, if you run through the whole loop the streams never phase on 12Z, 0Z does late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. What time does it come out. Also what time is the next big model come out after the 6z. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know that but, if you run through the whole loop the streams never phase on 12Z, 0Z does late. Well in that case congrats Atlantic ocean!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What time does it come out. Also what time is the next big model come out after the 6z. Thanks We'll probably start picking up on some NAM goodness around 0330. GFS closer to 0530 for what we're looking for. Next shot will be between 930am-11am for the 12z suite - NAM/GFS/ENS/CMC/UKIE/EURO I suspect there will be no objections for not chasing down the KMA/JMA/CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). First good luck to everyone. Second, the euro insisted for 3-4 runs that the low would stall further southwest of just about every other model. It got that part wrong, the low ended up stalling 100-150 miles ne toward where the other guidance had it. Overall it hit a homerun but was overly aggressive/sw with the stall point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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