ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not really, it's a losing battle but that's okay. Now I'll have to recompile the model to go back to screwing DC at 00 UTC. I have been kind to you, please don't screw Baltimore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks on phones.....jeeebus cimininy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Temps are borderline looking at 950mb, but those vvs would be a 32-33F snowbomb I would imagine in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not really, it's a losing battle but that's okay. Now I'll have to recompile the model to go back to screwing DC at 00 UTC. I pre-preemptively hate the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks on phones.....jeeebus cimininy. 18zqpf.JPG Thanks Bob that just made my vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So what are the boundary layer temps? Next we'll be worrying about it trending a little too far north. I don't think it can come too much farther north but I've been wrong before. Freezing level during the higher QPF periods falls from 925mb to 950mb. Below that is maybe 1 or 2C. I think it is a snow sounding, especially towards 18 to 21z on Wed. Actually, the early overnight period soundings are good, which makes me wonder if we couldn't hold onto snow despite a modeled boundary layer that is iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ryan Mahue said the new GGEM has been performing as well as the GFS and barely below the EURO Ryan Maue @RyanMaue .@EricBlake12 during same time period using 00z, 12z: GFS = 0.922, ECMWF = 0.939. (Anomaly Correlation 5-day z500 NH) Details 48 minsRyan Maue @RyanMaue How's the new Canadian Global model performing? For 5-day N. Hemi height skill -- very well. r = 0.922 pic.twitter.com/7tbnR6Dab4 Details Go to full profile → AC scores don't really tell the whole story when it comes to real model skill and usability. But I do agree, the GGEM is better than most give it credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Temps are borderline looking at 950mb, but those vvs would be a 32-33F snowbomb I would imagine in DC. With those rates I'd think it would be power outage snow. I love snow but don't like outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's gonna suck when I get 2.5", you get 6" and Ji gets 16" Road trip to my sister's in HGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's gonna suck when I get 2.5", you get 6" and Ji gets 16" I ran 700 panels too. Verbatin, with those vv's and those rates....you get crushed. I'm sure you know this going verbatim but I'm pretty skeptical too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks on phones.....jeeebus cimininy. 18zqpf.JPG Guess what that looks just like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's gonna suck when I get 2.5", you get 6" and Ji gets 16" Qpf maps are snowmageddon 2. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 vinyl, I think you are wrong in saying that phasing brought this storm north, the reason it came north a bit was the block moved out of the way a bit and the ull went positive to negative faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So what are the boundary layer temps? Next we'll be worrying about it trending a little too far north. I don't think it can come too much farther north but I've been wrong before. Wes took the words out of my .. head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not as great a run for those of us in central VA as temps are becoming a bigger problem the further north this goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Clown maps should be entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not as great a run for those of us in central VA as temps are becoming a bigger problem the further north this goes The intial WAA precip is warm, but once the low goes east the rates become insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I hope they're right...Same. Ill take 4" liquid if we can get it. Dinner in Tenley on Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 vinyl, I think you are wrong in saying that phasing brought this storm north, the reason it came north a bit was the block moved out of the way a bit and the ull went positive to negative faster. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yup. I guess HM is still a better met than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I guess HM is still a better met than me. I'm gonna go with Zwyts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wow 18Z with the crush. Lots of heavy, wet snow That's the bad kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 So wait..when does our vort get over land and better sampling territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm gonna go with Zwyts on this. Not sure what you mean. Bowling ball certainly was in play just felt like phasing was better option for cold. This is about perfect for us obviously.. Maybe too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not really, it's a losing battle but that's okay. Now I'll have to recompile the model to go back to screwing DC at 00 UTC. I don't even know how you can handle all the bashing when few of the weenies who constantly bash it have little clue what these models are doing. That said, the NAM is still a bad numerical model, but I know you have nothing to do with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Clown maps should be entertaining Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wow 18Z with the crush. Lots of heavy, wet snow That's the bad kind. The storm we had down this way back in January had only about 5" of heavy wet snow and we had trees coming down all over the place with thousands w/o power. Someone is gonna get destroyed with a heavy wet snow and it might not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yup. I guess HM is still a better met than me. My apologies to you Ian. I didn't realize you got a met degree, sorry again for giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So wait..when does our vort get over land and better sampling territory? Well, the incipient ULL is still just off of the coast of BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What's the JMA say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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