AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dear Lord -- it's pretty bad when the JMA, and CRAS models are being considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what is RVA? Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what is RVA? Richmond..so RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS and the CRAS (and i believe the cras sometimes can be used as an indicator of a western or northern bais in the other models) vs pretty much everything else, i'm not sure why were even bothering at this point. This looks like it's going to be another euro like solution and i've to hear any real reasoning why it might be otherwise. GGEM.... just a cold rain for most of the storm, now usually it runs a little on the warm side, but by that much? ehhhh ...long live the euro I know this will get deleted, but either back up your claims with meteorology, or stop posting. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do people realize that the 12z Euro still gives DCA 1" qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know this will get deleted, but either back up your claims with meteorology, or stop posting. Thank you. this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do people realize that the 12z Euro still gives DCA 1" qpf? People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. It's comical. We spent days and days tracking .10" storms, getting excited when a model showed .18, but now the Euro ONLY shows 1.0" and it's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. You do realize 3 weeks ago the Euro gave Northern New Jersey pre blizzard? Think they ended up with 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT is getting trolled on Facebook in epic fashion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's comical. We spent days and days tracking .10" storms, getting excited when a model showed .18, but now the Euro ONLY shows 1.0" and it's It's all relative, but when it all comes down... people will see it doesn't really matter as long as they can get a snow day out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Our range right now is 1" to 2.5" qpf. I'm not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eeeek. Euro running. Out to 30 so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. Let's start with the excitement. Yes, the Euro has a better track record. But what IS a track record? I rode horses as a kid, and my pony was the swiftest around...until he broke his leg. I won more competitions jumping with that pony over the 5 years I rode him than any of my friends (stick with me on this, true story) - Oddly, my horse was named 'Euro.' But he was near lame the last 3. Statistically, I still beat out my friends over 8 years...even though I wasn't worth a darn the last 3. Case in point: , where and , (YAAAY CONFLUENCE! DIFFLUENCE! HORRIZONTAL WIND!) No, I don't sit here and run intangibles and play with numbers. I'm not that sadistic...but you too, can play with numbers and see how your favorite model stacks up! Grab the 12z, line up the current time of your favorite frame - and then take a look at where you are now...in real time. Does it add up? Why not? What happened in between? Dollars to donuts, the GFS is more right than wrong for the last 24 hours. Shocker: the semi-long range NAM isn't slouching either. Euro will be the one to break, at least for the Mid/Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 48, either its slower, or more north with the ULL. also, looks to be some type of laggging vorticity in NE. could be timing, tough to tell on the euro h5 maps on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per earthlight -- Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams...everything farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Case in point: , where and , Love me some Diffy-Q's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 showing a double barrel low with the low popping over CVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Def. more GFS-esk through 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Getting super juicy would not help the temps either so 1" liq. quiv. mostly snow might well be more snow than 1.5" liq. equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As long as it's north of the NAM and 12z. NAM was north than hit a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Love me some Diffy-Q's! Your love life is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. The euro has followed the gfs throughout the past few days. And its probably wise not to bet against the model that's showing snow for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To my weenie eyes, the euro looks close to 50 miles north.. atleast the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To my weenie eyes, the euro looks close to 50 miles north.. atleast the surface low Looks...NAMish under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z Euro had the frame before the precip with surface temps of 8.7c, they're 7.0c this time fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro looks very close to NAM irt low placement and 500/850 vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. Euro goes SOUTH at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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