wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ahh, with that pesky ME ULL gone, we can finally get some decent difluent ridging out front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. Indeed. Though, the NAM is puzzling right now. It looks like there's too much emphasis on the ULL. Too much suction, to use a 5th grade term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Indeed. Though, the NAM is puzzling right now. It looks like there's too much emphasis on the ULL. Too much suction, to use a 5th grade term. Yeah for all that shear/vorticity on the bottom side, there isn't a lot of height falls in the left exit. Conservation of Vorticity I believe that is.. Edit: I meant conservation of potential vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah for all that shear/vorticity on the bottom side, there isn't a lot of height falls in the left exit. Conservation of Vorticity I believe that is.. The word you're looking for is 'Hoarding' haha. But yes. Nevertheless, profiles show instability abounding by 54 near DC. If I were a betting man, I'd say that is when you'd want to start counting QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. When this is all over you should write a paper on your theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 00z nam panic can be put to rest wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 00z nam panic can be put to rest wow Why are you up? I haven't even looked at the NAM. I'm scared. What's it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The uvvs are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a peek at the SREF's, If my theory is on track.. This is going to be a epic 72 hrs coming up. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why are you up? I haven't even looked at the NAM. I'm scared. What's it show? It's hecstacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam says hello to GFS...BOOM nice 12-15 hr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Geez, now everyone comes out of the woodworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm going to go ahead and infer that the Euro's slight jog north (of the surface low) is its first step in what will surely be a tortured surrender-- at the hands of the Queen (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 OMG..just saw it. Went way into the GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HECS for sure. 2"+ liquid for much of NoVa, DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can't ask for a better 500mb low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What exactly do you think is going to happen? For the DC area? Take the 6z NAM, (the 12z will likely be on the same track also) move the precip swath 25-50 mi N then it will be ~25 miles N or S of that line. In other words, I think NOVA and DC are in for a good hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Later on today I am gonna go out and buy at least three more Jebman shovels. I'm gonna need em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At 7 to 1 ratios that would be 14" for a lot of folks...minus the melting and compacting and loss of a bit to front end rain..probably like a widespread 6-10" storm more out west obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM only in bed with EURO for 6 hours....now hopped back over towards GFS. I'd still like to see EURO a little more robust further north and east like the GFS/NAM. How many time do we see these situations and then look back and say that we shouldn't have doubted the EURO? The EURO is such a b*tch with its SW to NE gradient. I'd rather see a more north to south gradient component like the GFS/NAM. It's going to be a nail biter for many---why the hell else am I up at 4 AM? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ouch, 70 kt winds at 900mb right in the low level warm sector into the DE beaches. Beach erosion anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 New thread been give http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39585-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope-part-ii/http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39585-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope-part-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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