Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i think the euro had some trouble with the set up of the deformation bands on that one, but then which model can accurately portrait that i have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even though it is too late this run for the NE there is a bit more phasing the run compared to 12Z and it gets the low ever so closer. 12Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). I think Euro did better up towards Boston and was more consistent, but was too aggressvie in bringing the heavy snow south into NYC and New Jersey. GFS did better around NYC and New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. Depends how fast I can get this paper done.. which at the moment is really slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even though it is too late this run for the NE there is a bit more phasing the run compared to 12Z and it gets the low ever so closer. 12Z 0Z You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different Bingo. Beat me to the punch. CTP had this up, but quickly redacted it. It was changed to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You know that hr 96 at 12z is different at 0z's 96 hour? My guess is probably not, of course they are going to look different I know that but, if you run through the whole loop the streams never phase on 12Z, 0Z does late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. What time does it come out. Also what time is the next big model come out after the 6z. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know that but, if you run through the whole loop the streams never phase on 12Z, 0Z does late. Well in that case congrats Atlantic ocean!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What time does it come out. Also what time is the next big model come out after the 6z. Thanks We'll probably start picking up on some NAM goodness around 0330. GFS closer to 0530 for what we're looking for. Next shot will be between 930am-11am for the 12z suite - NAM/GFS/ENS/CMC/UKIE/EURO I suspect there will be no objections for not chasing down the KMA/JMA/CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). First good luck to everyone. Second, the euro insisted for 3-4 runs that the low would stall further southwest of just about every other model. It got that part wrong, the low ended up stalling 100-150 miles ne toward where the other guidance had it. Overall it hit a homerun but was overly aggressive/sw with the stall point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We'll probably start picking up on some NAM goodness around 0330. GFS closer to 0530 for what we're looking for. Next shot will be between 930am-11am for the 12z suite - NAM/GFS/ENS/CMC/UKIE/EURO I suspect there will be no objections for not chasing down the KMA/JMA/CRAS? I'll be around, not like I'm going anywhere...working 3rd 16 hour shift in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else toughing out the 6z suite in my neck of the woods? I'm somewhat obligated to look at it. So, I'll be 'round. I am in Europe so i am up and would greatly appreciate details of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am in Europe so i am up and would greatly appreciate details of them. No sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well in that case congrats Atlantic ocean!! It almost looked like extreme NE MD had less precip than 12z with everyone else more. Next we'll watch a dry v develop over the area. Kidding on the last part... Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can't believe that the 0Z GFS and zero of it's ENS members looked anything like EURO. All are north. 0Z GFS must have been smoking the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I may have just cracked this storm's code. There's one crucial difference between the the "south" camp (NAM/Euro) and the North camp (CMC/GFS/SREF). It almost seems obvious in hindsight. It took awhile to nail it down but I'm almost positive that the breakdown of the cut-off low in ME is the key. If it stays north or breaks down and slides due east, then we have a GFS-esk scenario. If it slides south due to an interaction between a tiny s/w rotating around the main ULL off the coast then it sinks south and "chases" after the s/w, then it's a NAM/Euro scenario. This senario lowers heights out ahead of our bowling ball, yada yada, and we have a H5 center that exits off Norfolk/OBX.I wish I had time to put together a slideshow but I have a paper due at 10AM and just don't have time. Of course, I might be just going crazy from sleep deprivation. Which is a total possibility. Edit: Oh the strength of the southern s/w matters too, maybe to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I may have just cracked this storm's code. There's one crucial difference between the the "south" camp (NAM/Euro) and the North camp (CMC/GFS/SREF). It almost seems obvious in hindsight. It took awhile to nail it down but I'm almost positive that the breakdown of the cut-off low in ME is the key. If it stays north or breaks down and slides due east, then we have a GFS-esk scenario. If it slides south due to an interaction between a tiny s/w rotating around the main ULL off the coast then it sinks south and "chases" after the s/w, then it's a NAM/Euro scenario. This senario lowers heights out ahead of our bowling ball, yada yada, and we have a H5 center that exits off Norfolk/OBX. I wish I had time to put together a slideshow but I have a paper due at 10AM and just don't have time. Of course, I might be just going crazy from sleep deprivation. Which is a total possibility. Edit: Oh the strength of the southern s/w matters too, maybe to a lesser extent. Took a look and see what you mean. UKMET also shots the block out quicker and is almost close to the GFS at upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm in Hawaii and I have no idea what's going on. When I check my NWS forecast, it looks like a rain/mix event, and you guys are talking significant snow. Which is right? Flight gets back Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm in Hawaii and I have no idea what's going on. When I check my NWS forecast, it looks like a rain/mix event, and you guys are talking significant snow. Which is right? Flight gets back Thursday morning. Tomorrow you'll probably be looking into what time your flight lands...and where. You may find it to be important, because yes - we're quibbling over 75-100 miles at this juncture for the M/A (New England can be another conversation) but nevertheless, For Centreville -> I'd be paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If my theory holds water, this run should be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is what I'm on about... Top is 6z, bottom is 0z. Pretty different for being back to back runs IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If my theory holds water, this run should be further north. Your theory holds water. I posted an equation a few pages back - You've got about 80% of it wrapped up in that bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM similar enough without making any notation through 24 (compared to 30 from the 0z) EDIT: A tick warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some ULL interaction is kickstarting, and @wxmeddler's theory looks to be holding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some ULL interaction is kickstarting, and @wxmeddler's theory looks to be holding I just compared the 0z @30hrs to 6z at 24 hrs.. Holy cow, what a difference! I should of had the idea earlier! FWIW, My paper is not getting done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just compared the 0z @30hrs to 6z at 24 hrs.. Holy cow, what a difference! I should of had the idea earlier! FWIW, My paper is not getting done.. hahaha. Perhaps if you were more sleep deprived, you'd have even better ideas! (My physics=AWESOME...my ideas, not so great) lol This is coming north with the primary, but I don't think precip will follow as strongly until 12z. Doesn't look like it's got a handle on the swinging of the 'hammer' so to speak through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Watches just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Watches just issued. THOSE JERKS. Make a liar out of me, they will. 36 is trucking right on through on the surface. Looking good. "...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAYEVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS." I expect Mount Holly will take care of Cecil Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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