Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. We had 980 reply threads for a .18 clipper...now all hell breaks loose if model shows only 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty sure this is a snow sounding at 60 hrs for DCA http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013030400_F60_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm calling this storm pd3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? It has the moist adiabats, they're curved dashed lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PDIII, dont stretch it...for DC Balt.... QPF is around 1.50-1.75.....A bit will be lost to rain and snow that doesnt stick right away. Then you're stuck with bad ratios...There is no chance that DC hits 96/PDii #s...But they could def. do 6-12 if things go right. I tried to qualify that in my post... it is march... and temps are an issue... I am just saying from what the model depicted... the overall geographic extent.. million of people impacted.. and not mention.. 12 inches would be around 7:1 ratios with the amounts depicted... 12 inches would break a record for March I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? my bad... my eyes are getting tired. I honestly did not see that. Looks OK, but not very unstable in that sounding. Don't think thats the heavy stuff yet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's extremely pathetic I remember during Snowmagedon people were freaking out because they thought we were only gonna get 15 inches instead of 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do you all realize that Wes Junker typed the words "double digit accumulations" three times in his latest article, "thundersnow" once and "Dynamic" four times... does anyone truly understand the significance of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty sure this is a snow sounding at 60 hrs for DCA http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013030400_F60_39.0000N_77.0000W.png its close, but probably w/ sick rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty sure this is a snow sounding at 60 hrs for DCA http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013030400_F60_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Yup looks like snow to me, although surface temps just barely above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? For SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Why do I feel you have said this with pretty much every model run? Still ripping 925 mb winds on the GFS (60-70 kts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FYI....DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.6 -1.5 0.07 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -0.6 0.29 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.3 0.50 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -3.5 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.3 -3.9 0.55 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.9 0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So, who's staying up to get Euro'ed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FYI....DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.6 -1.5 0.07 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -0.6 0.29 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.3 0.50 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -3.5 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.3 -3.9 0.55 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.9 0.07 33/34 degrees and about I would say the first .2 is prob rain... after should be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Yep the Euro/NAM/UKMET/GGEM are all a good bit South of the GFS. Maybe the GFS scores a coup ... would be about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So, who's staying up to get Euro'ed? What time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Oh my god yes, we keep losing model after model to a euro like scenarios, it's like the GFS is on anther planet or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe this is wishful thinking, but this feels like Dec. 19, 2009, when Charlottesville to Frederickburg Va was suppose to be the bullseye, but in the end the bullseye moved toward Dulles Airport if I recall. And even for Feb. 5 2010, DC was suppose to be the bullseye, but it ended up being in northern Carrol County.. I'm no met, but seems to me the best bands usually set up about 50 miles from where its progged. Even in the well-forecast, modeled, Boston Blizzard last month, the heaviest snow didn't end up in Boston. It ended up in central Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Whhhaaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Yes, but still well south of the GFS. UKIE was the southern most outlier of all the models before this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe this is wishful thinking, but this feels like Dec. 19, 2009, when Charlottesville to Frederickburg Va was suppose to be the bullseye, but in the end the bullseye moved toward Dulles Airport if I recall. And even for Feb. 5 2010, DC was suppose to be the bullseye, but it ended up being in northern Carrol County.. I'm no met, but seems to me the best bands usually set up about 50 miles from where its progged. Even in the well-forecast, modeled, Boston Blizzard last month, the heaviest snow didn't end up in Boston. It ended up in central Connecticut. Charlottesville got nearly 24" and just south of there in Nelson county was the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM starts off as snow, changes to rain. Not a northerly track, the cold air supply just runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well Maybe a shade north of where it was, but still in Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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