Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the spread is better than it was....but yes...bottom line is I cant find a compelling reason not to hug the euro right now... yeah a little .. the higher totals pushed toward us a bit, just not much shift right on that gradient. main story is confidence west grows probably. those areas are going to get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, at least we can cross off the "dive down to Wilmington,NC" option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it's pretty similar to 12z.. 3/4 or 4/8.. right on the line it looks. picks up big w/sw and drops fast e. higher totals actually expanded north in the hgr area and s pa tho. Really, higher as in what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 umm.no...the sfc features came north like 50 miles....the 12z dove southeast Nice. So nothing like the GFS, but it came north a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the sfc looks like a clone of the nam... 500... not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 few more shifts east w/ jackpot and it matches the gfs can look at it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice. So nothing like the GFS, but it came north a little. it has that weird piece of the N Atl low that breaks away, but weaker than the GFS...its kinda a cross between the GFS and NAM and 500, with the sfc weighted more toward the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really, higher as in what? 8-12" gets a bit north of the border now over in that area.. hard to describe since i dont really know it well, but near hgr, north and northwest a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks to have slowed 6 hours DCA: WED 06Z 06-MAR 2.1 -3.6 0.03 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.5 0.36 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.6 -4.9 0.34 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.5 -4.9 0.21 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.1 -3.5 0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it has that weird piece of the N Atl low that breaks away, but weaker than the GFS...its kinda a cross between the GFS and NAM and 500, with the sfc weighted more toward the NAMAgreed. It's a nice combo of the features that both we're picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 few more shifts east w/ jackpot and it matches the gfs can look at it that way I wonder what the GFS is smoking? THis has got to be a letdown for NE. I mean, I want the GFS to win for obvious reasons, but the main reason would be to see it score a huge coup on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 what happens at the surface as the low exits land is much better than 12z...you can see it in the precip shield..it is healthier and wetter in general..the precip shield is oriented better and the 1" countour jogged north by maybe 40 miles....the storm is much more east/west oriented now....at 12z the sfc completely fell apart Ok. That's a nice shift. And with that I'm off to bed. Work in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what happens at the surface as the low exits land is much better than 12z...you can see it in the precip shield..it is healthier and wetter in general..the precip shield is oriented better and the 1" countour jogged north by maybe 40 miles....the storm is much more east/west oriented now....at 12z the sfc completely fell apart There may actually be hope to project the trend forward. A blend is good for us. East toward the Bay Id be more nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 8-12" gets a bit north of the border now over in that area.. hard to describe since i dont really know it well, but near hgr, north and northwest a smidge. Hmm well a few more 10 mile shifts and we will have it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what happens at the surface as the low exits land is much better than 12z...you can see it in the precip shield..it is healthier and wetter in general..the precip shield is oriented better and the 1" countour jogged north by maybe 40 miles....the storm is much more east/west oriented now....at 12z the sfc completely fell apart Subtle improvement overall but not eyepopping. Slp goes off the coast a bit further n. Precip is still there. I can see how it can go more towards the gfs. Not up the coast or anything. Just getting the axis of heaviest precip closer. Gfs seems dead set on putting us in a major deform area. Skeptical of course but the euro did not take away that possibility or move in the wrong direction. Today was really good news door to door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I actually like the slow down on the euro, possible more time to phase with the northern stream, and more time for the blocking high to get out of the way to inch a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? .98 for DCA So, yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wonder what the GFS is smoking? THis has got to be a letdown for NE. I mean, I want the GFS to win for obvious reasons, but the main reason would be to see it score a huge coup on the Euro. I'd like to see DT shut his mouth for one thing. lol. If the GFS was somehow right DT would look like like a major idiot for bashing it so hard. Please just this one time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Could help some that sun really has not worked over the ground for a while and getting about 12 hours per day into Tues. that temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Subtle improvement overall but not eyepopping. Slp goes off the coast a bit further n. Precip is still there. I can see how it can go more towards the gfs. Not up the coast or anything. Just getting the axis of heaviest precip closer. Gfs seems dead set on putting us in a major deform area. Skeptical of course but the euro did not take away that possibility or move in the wrong direction. Today was really good news door to door. I don't know that it'll translate more 'toward the GFS' other than on the surface, so to speak. On our side of the fence it's all about real estate: LOWcation LOWcation LOWcation. That, and how fast it starts counting backwards. But yes, generally speaking - Flakes look to be a pretty secure bet at this point. But I think this will come down to a situation where watches get issued on a dice roll in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 subtle is right....the euro is a rock.....there is a reason mets spend so much money getting its products Where was the low at 12Z from some graphics I see this run the low is just east of VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is total QPF for DC on Euro. Still around 1'? from i heard yeah about an inch but the precipitation shield a tad north and east, still not as ample as the GFS. It also hold holds onto the tight qpf gradient... looks like someones going to get screwed and someone else is going to get walloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't know that it'll translate more 'toward the GFS' other than on the surface, so to speak. On our side of the fence it's all about real estate: LOWcation LOWcation LOWcation. That, and how fast it starts counting backwards. But yes, generally speaking - Flakes look to be a pretty secure bet at this point. But I think this will come down to a situation where watches get issued on a dice roll in some places. I see WSWs for I-81 corridor and SW of Warrenton being issued in the morning package (either the 3 or 9 am)... further NE will have to wait till after the 12z suite IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Could help some that sun really has not worked over the ground for a while and getting about 12 hours per day into Tues. that temps are below freezing. One of those funny situations where you can tell all your friends (if, in this example the forecast were locked down tight) 6" would fall...but they may gripe that they only saw 4. But between compaction, and what got lost to melting - 4 on the ground, 6 in your gauge. I think any of the light QPF from the onset is lost. Regardless of track, unless some serious intensity shows up that I'm not seeing. So if the final guess comes out at .85 - but 3 hours of light .13 QPF come to be. I'd throw that away, plus another bit for ground moisture/warmth. Then adjust for your ratios. So that .85 would probably turn into a 4-6" event, leaning ever closer to the 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 jumped se to hatteras So the low is like 25ish miles north. Hmm Euro is starting to get out of it's deadly range too. Tomorrow 12Z will be the real test of what will go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 they're going to be very conservative on issuing WSW tomorrow, even if things do turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I see WSWs for I-81 corridor and SW of Warrenton being issued in the morning package (either the 3 or 9 am)... further NE will have to wait till after the 12z suite IMO I said it earlier as well. LWX for the NRN tier of the CWA will probably hold tough until 2-3, I expect Mount Holly to issue WWA for their portions up in Cecil Co. But, This is a weekday storm we're talking about. So they'll cut closer to that 48 hour call than anything else. Even if they have to scale up later. But I concur with you. My gut tells me the Sweet spot is south of I-70, West of 270...and then head toward Roanoke with the wife and kiddies for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the GFS or EURO end up with higher verification for the New England blizzard a few weeks ago? I remember the EURO was very bullish on accumulation in NNJ and NYC, the GFS rather less so (think the GFS won on that one). Starting when? Yes - the GFS was a little less bullish, but it tends to ignore some crucial rules of thermodynamics when it feels like it. Boundary Layer temps come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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