Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol I don't care if Boston gets 30 as long as we get ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why would this indicate more cold air? The stuff I'm talking about is influencing the amplification. normally injection from a Northern Stream shortwave would mean more cold air becuase of air mass source region, although in this case, since it broke off from the original storm to some extent, that rulle probably doesn't apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of us mets up there are having some fun at the expense of the GFS. Its a terrible model in big east coast storms...it makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. It almost nevers scores the coup in big storms. I'd be surprised if it did in this one. I do think the Euro is too far south, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its a lot more right than the GFS...especially as it pertains up to this region. For down there in that region, a slight shift north of the Euro makes it a much better storm for BWI and northward. Even at 48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston can get snow from a miller F You don't know anything about boston climo. Neither you or phin. City gets the shaft regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There still is a sharp cutoff north of the Mason Dixon line.something else to watch. It is good news that the GFS stalls the heaviest band right over Northern DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even at 48 hours out? Esp at that time range...though for SNE, the storm would be more like 72-96 hours as it flips the ULL slowly northward after it exits the Mid-atlantic coast. The meat of the event for DC is still about in the 60 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I remember the morning of PDI, after the insane rates ended and it was light snow at the very end of the storm temps were at 34 or so insane rates sure can help but there's other stuff going on that can spoil the cooling effects of those rates..I just don't know what they are technically speaking that is a pretty good comparison other than the fact that it was around 12 degrees at the height of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the evolution of the GFS is just weird to me. I highly doubt this phases up the coast. I don't buy that retrograding vort in to NNE at all unless I see other models pick up on it or more run to run consistently. GFS has been ALL over the place with the evolution of the N Atl low. This kind of variance IMO is quite ridiculous this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 normally injection from a Northern Stream shortwave would mean more cold air becuase of air mass source region, although in this case, since it broke off from the original storm to some extent, that rulle probably doesn't apply. There is no phasing here during the storm. These features are only transferring momentum while the storm is happening for the Mid Atlantic. If anything, more amplification / west low could mean an influx of a warmer boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. The NAM only gave MBY 1.75 this run so no wonder I'm a tad bit edgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. It's extremely pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If this were to verify... I am pretty sure it would be up there with 1993, 1996, 2003, 2010... I know the temps will hold down accumulations... but this is just plain madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. experience mainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. Not to mention it's totals were 40% too low in the FEB 9th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. To think just days ago we would have died for 2 inches of streak busting snow, but 2"+ QPF--that sucks! It's awful! Toss it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS clown map do i remember the color scheme right that that bullseye is 35-40". if so... loooool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From CWG 11:00 p.m. update: We’ve reviewed the latest model data, and our updated D.C. area snow accumulation chances for between Tuesday night and Wednesday night: Chance of 2” or more: 70-80 percentChance of 5” or more: 45-60 percentChance of 10” or more: 10-30 percent The low end of the ranges apply to D.C./I-95 and points east, while the higher end of the ranges apply to areas of west of D.C. and I-95 (where the accumulation potential is greater due to colder temperatures). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS much warmer, would be half a rain event even up into parts of the DC metro You serious, Clark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking at the 00z GFS soundings (KIAD), from just before 54hrs until just after 66hrs, there would be heavy snow with a good amount of instability. Still snowing at hour 72 but moderate at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PDIII, dont stretch it...for DC Balt.... QPF is around 1.50-1.75.....A bit will be lost to rain and snow that doesnt stick right away. Then you're stuck with bad ratios...There is no chance that DC hits 96/PDii #s...But they could def. do 6-12 if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 that is a pretty good comparison other than the fact that it was around 12 degrees at the height of the storm nah., it started off frigid but then warmed incredibly never did know why with such rates still, the nagging temp issues reappear after 18z suite allayed them for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston/SNE really benefits from how it juts out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 hrs GFS sounding DCA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BTW... the UKIE is a little better this run w/ the LP tracking along the VA/NC border, but its OTS quickly. Hard to tell exactly, but it seems to get 1" up to DCA. Looks alot like the NAM to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dont know if anybody cares but the Ukie came a little north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston/SNE really benefits from how it juts out into the Atlantic. I knew that. Just playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 hrs GFS sounding DCA area GFS_3_2013030400_F54_39.0000N_77.0000W.png you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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