DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Our range right now is 1" to 2.5" qpf. I'm not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eeeek. Euro running. Out to 30 so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. Let's start with the excitement. Yes, the Euro has a better track record. But what IS a track record? I rode horses as a kid, and my pony was the swiftest around...until he broke his leg. I won more competitions jumping with that pony over the 5 years I rode him than any of my friends (stick with me on this, true story) - Oddly, my horse was named 'Euro.' But he was near lame the last 3. Statistically, I still beat out my friends over 8 years...even though I wasn't worth a darn the last 3. Case in point: , where and , (YAAAY CONFLUENCE! DIFFLUENCE! HORRIZONTAL WIND!) No, I don't sit here and run intangibles and play with numbers. I'm not that sadistic...but you too, can play with numbers and see how your favorite model stacks up! Grab the 12z, line up the current time of your favorite frame - and then take a look at where you are now...in real time. Does it add up? Why not? What happened in between? Dollars to donuts, the GFS is more right than wrong for the last 24 hours. Shocker: the semi-long range NAM isn't slouching either. Euro will be the one to break, at least for the Mid/Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 48, either its slower, or more north with the ULL. also, looks to be some type of laggging vorticity in NE. could be timing, tough to tell on the euro h5 maps on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per earthlight -- Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams...everything farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Case in point: , where and , Love me some Diffy-Q's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 showing a double barrel low with the low popping over CVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Def. more GFS-esk through 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Getting super juicy would not help the temps either so 1" liq. quiv. mostly snow might well be more snow than 1.5" liq. equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As long as it's north of the NAM and 12z. NAM was north than hit a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Love me some Diffy-Q's! Your love life is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. The euro has followed the gfs throughout the past few days. And its probably wise not to bet against the model that's showing snow for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To my weenie eyes, the euro looks close to 50 miles north.. atleast the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To my weenie eyes, the euro looks close to 50 miles north.. atleast the surface low Looks...NAMish under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z Euro had the frame before the precip with surface temps of 8.7c, they're 7.0c this time fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro looks very close to NAM irt low placement and 500/850 vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail. Euro goes SOUTH at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro goes SOUTH at 72. Good for you. <shrugs shoulders> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 really tight gradient across dc snowmap wise. nightmare forecast unless the gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 really tight gradient across dc snowmap wise. nightmare forecast unless the gfs is right. At this point, we have no choice but to believe the GFS is the outlier. What's the total for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro goes SOUTH at 72. looks similar but sfc features slightly north... estimates 1" DCA and IAD 0.75 BWI Huh? I was told it was S O U T H at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sounds like a NAM clone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 baby steps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Huh? I was told it was S O U T H at 72 hours. it does that weird SE jog thing, but the QPF field is further N... still keeps the heaviest down near CHO-RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Three to five inches of extremely wet cement snow would be fine. I need to thin out a few old dead branches in my front yard tree. I DO like snow. I am NOT greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At this point, we have no choice but to believe the GFS is the outlier. What's the total for us? it's pretty similar to 12z.. 3/4 or 4/8.. right on the line it looks. picks up big w/sw and drops fast e. higher totals actually expanded north in the hgr area and s pa tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope it's north so DT can fail.lol. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How does the temp profile look east of the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it's pretty similar to 12z.. 3/4 or 4/8.. right on the line it looks. picks up big w/sw and drops fast e. higher totals actually expanded north in the hgr area and s pa tho. Thanks, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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