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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope


stormtracker

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I'd rather the NAM and GFS split the difference, then most will be happy and it will cut down on p-type issues.  The GFS would pull in some warmer air since it is ampled up close to the coast.  Then the NAM is too far south it's closer to a fringing...  Track down the middle and we are all good.

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There's no reason to post unless you have new info to add... I don't post when things are bad because I don't care as much. I don't follow it as closely nor spend much time on my own interpretations. Dunno if this was directed at me or not, but I kinda feel like it was.

It wasn't.

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The GFS pinches off the NW Atlantic / New England wave so much that it meanders to Lake Ontario this run. Also, the northern wave that the storm breaks off originally has no effect. Between the NW Atlantic wave breaking off so far west and the lack of any momentum transfer from the northern wave, the storm is free to amplify/go negatively tilted sooner.

This is the first run that did that with the NW Atlantic/New England wave. By retrograding west this much, it allows the ridging to improve and gives room for the wave to amplify over the Mid Atlantic.

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GFS much warmer, would be half a rain event even up into parts of the DC metro

Not with those rates. Soundings have consistently been below freezing where it counts. It will be messy on the surface but not rainy for most until you get closer to the bay.

Gfs is showing a ridiculous pivoting deform band. Someone would have tssn for sure (verbatim)

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The GFS pinches off the NW Atlantic / New England wave so much that it meanders to Lake Ontario this run. Also, the northern wave that the storm breaks off originally has no effect. Between the NW Atlantic wave breaking off so far west and the lack of any momentum transfer from the northern wave, the storm is free to amplify/go negatively tilted sooner.

This is the first run that did that with the NW Atlantic/New England wave. By retrograding west this much, it allows the ridging to improve and gives room for the wave to amplify over the Mid Atlantic.

 

any clue with the BL is warmer slightly? All this should indicate more cold air injection.

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any clue with the BL is warmer slightly? All this should indicate more cold air injection.

Why would this indicate more cold air? The stuff I'm talking about is influencing the amplification.

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I remember the morning of PDI, after the insane rates ended and it was light snow at the very end of the storm temps were at 34 or so

insane rates sure can help but there's other stuff going on that can spoil the cooling effects of those rates..I just don't know what they are technically speaking

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You knew the snow gods wouldn't make them sit this one out. Our event will end up being a sideshow, you watch. 

 

 

Most of us mets up there are having some fun at the expense of the GFS. Its a terrible model in big east coast storms...it makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. It almost nevers scores the coup in big storms. I'd be surprised if it did in this one. I do think the Euro is too far south, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its a lot more right than the GFS...especially as it pertains up to this region. For down there in that region, a slight shift north of the Euro makes it a much better storm for BWI and northward.

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