Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes GFS is an outlier, but it has trended away from the consensus since 12z, which is a little alarming. Either the GFS wrong, or it's a hero here. unfortunately that almost never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 unfortunately that almost never happens Yeah but in the good old days it wasn't unusual for a storm to come way north inside 60hrs on all models. Look at Dec 2010, Feb 2007, Oct 2011, Dec 2009 ect. Those all were supposed to scoot due east, but all of them got a little hung up between the coast and the gulfstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The CMC's map with the low sitting over northern Virginia would be an awesome rain storm I would think, Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The CMC's map with the low sitting over northern Virginia would be an awesome rain storm I would think, Ugh. Huh? Its not over N VA at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I guess this is the last time we can use the GEFS... but 1.5 QPF for DCA metro... DCA is bulls-eye of 1.78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Huh? Its not over N VA at all That's not? Crap, (rubs eyes) it's late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's not? Crap, (rubs eyes) it's late. Its in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its in N NC Yeah, I see it now. My bad. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The CMC's map with the low sitting over northern Virginia would be an awesome rain storm I would think, Ugh. Look at the black dot below the L. The low is over NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its in N NC True, but GGEM is probably warmest model of them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe this is wishful thinking, but this feels like Dec. 19, 2009, when Charlottesville to Frederickburg Va was suppose to be the bullseye, but in the end the bullseye moved toward Dulles Airport if I recall. And even for Feb. 5 2010, DC was suppose to be the bullseye, but it ended up being in northern Carrol County.. I'm no met, but seems to me the best bands usually set up about 50 miles from where its progged. Even in the well-forecast, modeled, Boston Blizzard last month, the heaviest snow didn't end up in Boston. It ended up in central Connecticut. wait, what? Parts of Charlottesville received 28" of snow. i was in between those areas in 2009 and we got 25" surpassing the forecasted 16-20". google a total snowfall map for that storm and you will see the bullseye did not shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00z GEFS destroy everyone from DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have the 0z JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have the 0z JMA? Haven't seen it but I heard it's north like gfs and probably like what the euro will show shortly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 wait, what? Parts of Charlottesville received 28" of snow. i was in between those areas in 2009 and we got 25" surpassing the forecasted 16-20". google a total snowfall map for that storm and you will see the bullseye did not shift north. Ok. maybe Charlottesville and areas SW of DC still got bullseye.. But I am almost certain areas farther east like Fredericksburg were suppose to get more snow than DC. In the end, DC area did equally as well, including some areas north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS and the CRAS (and i believe the cras sometimes can be used as an indicator of a western or northern bais in the other models) vs pretty much everything else, i'm not sure why were even bothering at this point. This looks like it's going to be another euro like solution and i've to hear any real reasoning why it might be otherwise. GGEM.... just a cold rain for most of the storm, now usually it runs a little on the warm side, but by that much? ehhhh ...long live the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok. maybe Charlottesville and areas SW of DC still got bullseye.. But I am almost certain areas farther east like Fredericksburg were suppose to get more snow than DC. In the end, DC area did equally as well, including some areas north of the city. Yes fredericksburg did not do as well as modeled, in fact it is very rare we do better than DC on large snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it's not...it is about 1.25" for DC with the precip max on RVA what is RVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dear Lord -- it's pretty bad when the JMA, and CRAS models are being considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what is RVA? Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS and the CRAS (and i believe the cras sometimes can be used as an indicator of a western or northern bais in the other models) vs pretty much everything else, i'm not sure why were even bothering at this point. This looks like it's going to be another euro like solution and i've to hear any real reasoning why it might be otherwise. GGEM.... just a cold rain for most of the storm, now usually it runs a little on the warm side, but by that much? ehhhh ...long live the euro I know this will get deleted, but either back up your claims with meteorology, or stop posting. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do people realize that the 12z Euro still gives DCA 1" qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know this will get deleted, but either back up your claims with meteorology, or stop posting. Thank you. this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do people realize that the 12z Euro still gives DCA 1" qpf? People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. It's comical. We spent days and days tracking .10" storms, getting excited when a model showed .18, but now the Euro ONLY shows 1.0" and it's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this is all fun and games for now, but until we see shifts from the more reliable guidance (who am I kidding, the Euro and its ensembles), I think we'll have to take these developments as interesting but not "mother of god" status. The NCEP models have not only had a history of shenanigans in this time frame, but have had a specific history with bringing surface lows and precipitation shields too far north and west. And although every storm system is different, this would be an ideal situation for them to play into that bias. You do realize 3 weeks ago the Euro gave Northern New Jersey pre blizzard? Think they ended up with 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT is getting trolled on Facebook in epic fashion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's comical. We spent days and days tracking .10" storms, getting excited when a model showed .18, but now the Euro ONLY shows 1.0" and it's It's all relative, but when it all comes down... people will see it doesn't really matter as long as they can get a snow day out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 People are being irrational. A week ago, if you said we could get an event with 1" or even .75 QPF, this forum would have been dancing with delight. Now, if it's under 1.75", people start getting down. Like I said earlier...only in this forum.. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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