Shane M. Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty sure this is a snow sounding at 60 hrs for DCA http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013030400_F60_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Yup looks like snow to me, although surface temps just barely above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? For SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Why do I feel you have said this with pretty much every model run? Still ripping 925 mb winds on the GFS (60-70 kts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FYI....DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.6 -1.5 0.07 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -0.6 0.29 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.3 0.50 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -3.5 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.3 -3.9 0.55 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.9 0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So, who's staying up to get Euro'ed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FYI....DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.6 -1.5 0.07 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.3 -0.6 0.29 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.3 0.50 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -3.5 0.59 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.3 -3.9 0.55 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.9 0.07 33/34 degrees and about I would say the first .2 is prob rain... after should be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Yep the Euro/NAM/UKMET/GGEM are all a good bit South of the GFS. Maybe the GFS scores a coup ... would be about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So, who's staying up to get Euro'ed? What time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Oh my god yes, we keep losing model after model to a euro like scenarios, it's like the GFS is on anther planet or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe this is wishful thinking, but this feels like Dec. 19, 2009, when Charlottesville to Frederickburg Va was suppose to be the bullseye, but in the end the bullseye moved toward Dulles Airport if I recall. And even for Feb. 5 2010, DC was suppose to be the bullseye, but it ended up being in northern Carrol County.. I'm no met, but seems to me the best bands usually set up about 50 miles from where its progged. Even in the well-forecast, modeled, Boston Blizzard last month, the heaviest snow didn't end up in Boston. It ended up in central Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Whhhaaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm hearing the UKIE came North? Yes, but still well south of the GFS. UKIE was the southern most outlier of all the models before this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe this is wishful thinking, but this feels like Dec. 19, 2009, when Charlottesville to Frederickburg Va was suppose to be the bullseye, but in the end the bullseye moved toward Dulles Airport if I recall. And even for Feb. 5 2010, DC was suppose to be the bullseye, but it ended up being in northern Carrol County.. I'm no met, but seems to me the best bands usually set up about 50 miles from where its progged. Even in the well-forecast, modeled, Boston Blizzard last month, the heaviest snow didn't end up in Boston. It ended up in central Connecticut. Charlottesville got nearly 24" and just south of there in Nelson county was the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM starts off as snow, changes to rain. Not a northerly track, the cold air supply just runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well Maybe a shade north of where it was, but still in Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is coming north as well GGEM is still south. Comma head across central and NOVA. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Huh? It came north with the QPF field a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, but still well south of the GFS. UKIE was the southern most outlier of all the models before this run. GGEM is coming north as well I like this. Even if they're still south, anything moving north is good in my book. Even if they're untrusted models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the key will be if snow gets accumulated to 1" by 9am. Where that happens, even if it's 36/37 by early afternoon with the moderate rates it will continue to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM due east from that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggemp120120.gif Pretty insane QPF there on the GGEM lol I'm guessing it's known for doing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I tried to qualify that in my post... it is march... and temps are an issue... I am just saying from what the model depicted... the overall geographic extent.. million of people impacted.. and not mention.. 12 inches would be around 7:1 ratios with the amounts depicted... 12 inches would break a record for March I believe... Assuming the GFS's depiction of the storm is the prevailing one at go-time, how much will be forecasted for the area? I have a feeling that since DC's biggest March snowfall is ~12", and due to climatological factors, forecasters will be cautious and call for 5-10 or 6-12 for D.C. --at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 After staring at this crap over the last few days and digesting the latest 0z runs, I truly have no clue what to expect on Tuesday/Wednesday. Anyone else have a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM due east from that point. Yes GFS is an outlier, but it has trended away from the consensus since 12z, which is a little alarming. Either the GFS wrong, or it's a hero here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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