Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wet snow with high moisture content plus wind = very interesting times here in the mid atlantic this week. Talk about a shellackin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Exactly...especially when the current NAM solution is somewhere in between the GFS (farther N/wetter for DC) and the EC (farther S/drier). Those of us in the DC area need to take solace that, at least for now, the NAM *still* is north of the EC and even north of the EC Mean by 60-84 hours. However, yes it could very well be the beginning of a trend toward the EC. Will be interesting to see if the 00Z GFS and GEFS...and 03Z SREF...do the same thing.. What is interesting is that 21z SREFs were around 1.5 to 1.75 for DCA per Zwyts. But then again, neither the NAM nor the SREFs are really usable at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/wrf_reflectivity_60.gif LWX NMM12G 12km WRF-NMM, run every 6 hours out 60 hours, using GFS initial/boundary conditions gfs will be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any read on what is up? from wxsouth on FB he says that the current location of the ULL and the one depicted on the GFS do not match. Also said it was too early to read too much from it. But - we should be verifying with real data and not just models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah except it looks like the euro I'd rather just go with the euro itself. I don't care what the nam shows ever. It is terrible. Our forum is incorrigible sometimes. It makes me want to post elsewhere. Ill probably roll somewhere else for the rest of the evening. I didn't suffer here all this snowless winter to have our one opportunity soiled by a bunch of bandwagoners. If they browsed all winter they sure as hell can browse now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/wrf_reflectivity_60.gif LWX NMM12G 12km WRF-NMM, run every 6 hours out 60 hours, using GFS initial/boundary conditions gfs will be north Quite a different look from the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Many people here laughed at the NAM earlier today when it was ridiculous in the other direction. No need to freak out just because a single run shows DC with "only" 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unless you are a met If you spent all winter on the sidelines then stay there. We have absolutely no interest in what you have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unless you are a met If you spent all winter on the sidelines then stay there. We have absolutely no interest in what you have to say. You are worried way too much about this. It's just a weather forum. No one is going to die its for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Many people here laughed at the NAM earlier today when it was ridiculous in the other direction. No need to freak out just because a single run shows DC with "only" 1" QPF. The NAM has no skill at that range. We have known this and observed it for years now. It is a short range model and a bad one at that. This forum is like New Years or st patty'd day. All your favorite watering holes get overrun by douchebags for one day. Total amateur hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unless you are a met If you spent all winter on the sidelines then stay there. We have absolutely no interest in what you have to say. We have certain posters in this thread who are only here when their area looks to be gold. Many of us have been here all winter long, good and bad. I support what you said 100%. I know exactly what I want to see happen for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You are worried way too much about this. It's just a weather forum. No one is going to die its for entertainment. It's not just for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does anyone have any information on the NAM4 verses NAM12? Any reason one model does not stink more than the other! Any weight to one verses the other? NAM4 shows heavier precip on Northern VA and MD.. so that is why I am asking. NOT that the NAM really matters.. so this is a bit of curiousity. NAM 4 is a higher resolution NAM product. Anyone help a weenie out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RGEM at 48 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM has no skill at that range. We have known this and observed it for years now. It is a short range model and a bad one at that. This forum is like New Years or st patty'd day. All your favorite watering holes get overrun by douchebags for one day. Total amateur hour. The NAM doesn't suddenly get really prescient 48-60 hours out. The busts this year, and 1/11, and so many others since 2003 have showed us that. Discounting the NAM's solution earlier today was warranted, and taking this one with a grain of salt is just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 tossing models is just as stupid as hugging them. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any PBP on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any PBP on the GFS? comes out too quick we'll just wait until it's out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We have certain posters in this thread who are only here when their area looks to be gold. Many of us have been here all winter long, good and bad. I support what you said 100%. I know exactly what I want to see happen for them. There's no reason to post unless you have new info to add... I don't post when things are bad because I don't care as much. I don't follow it as closely nor spend much time on my own interpretations. Dunno if this was directed at me or not, but I kinda feel like it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not much difference really between 00z 39 and 18z 45 at the h5 level... besids 00z being a few miles NW and ever so slightly stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any PBP on the GFS? Yeah it's further north at 30hrs. I have absolutely no Idea what it will do later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM has no skill at that range. We have known this and observed it for years now. It is a short range model and a bad one at that. This forum is like New Years or st patty'd day. All your favorite watering holes get overrun by douchebags for one day. Total amateur hour. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who wants to bet the GFS comes south? Euro says come join Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who wants to bet the GFS comes south? Euro says come join $20 says Canadian & GFS. You're on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Bit more ridging ahead of the h5 low at 48... but still matches up pretty well with 18z h5 at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is generally wetter at 48 hrs than 18z at 54 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NE edge of the precip near the same spot as 18z through 48hrs. A little less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 So far GFS looks almost dead on vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 $20 says Canadian & GFS. You're on. lol gfs said f the euro/nam gfs is maintaining its previous position, it is actually really ugly thermal wise for most of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00Z NAM for DCA. NOT freak-out worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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