HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 normally injection from a Northern Stream shortwave would mean more cold air becuase of air mass source region, although in this case, since it broke off from the original storm to some extent, that rulle probably doesn't apply. There is no phasing here during the storm. These features are only transferring momentum while the storm is happening for the Mid Atlantic. If anything, more amplification / west low could mean an influx of a warmer boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. The NAM only gave MBY 1.75 this run so no wonder I'm a tad bit edgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. It's extremely pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If this were to verify... I am pretty sure it would be up there with 1993, 1996, 2003, 2010... I know the temps will hold down accumulations... but this is just plain madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. experience mainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. Not to mention it's totals were 40% too low in the FEB 9th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. To think just days ago we would have died for 2 inches of streak busting snow, but 2"+ QPF--that sucks! It's awful! Toss it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS clown map do i remember the color scheme right that that bullseye is 35-40". if so... loooool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From CWG 11:00 p.m. update: We’ve reviewed the latest model data, and our updated D.C. area snow accumulation chances for between Tuesday night and Wednesday night: Chance of 2” or more: 70-80 percentChance of 5” or more: 45-60 percentChance of 10” or more: 10-30 percent The low end of the ranges apply to D.C./I-95 and points east, while the higher end of the ranges apply to areas of west of D.C. and I-95 (where the accumulation potential is greater due to colder temperatures). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS much warmer, would be half a rain event even up into parts of the DC metro You serious, Clark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking at the 00z GFS soundings (KIAD), from just before 54hrs until just after 66hrs, there would be heavy snow with a good amount of instability. Still snowing at hour 72 but moderate at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PDIII, dont stretch it...for DC Balt.... QPF is around 1.50-1.75.....A bit will be lost to rain and snow that doesnt stick right away. Then you're stuck with bad ratios...There is no chance that DC hits 96/PDii #s...But they could def. do 6-12 if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 that is a pretty good comparison other than the fact that it was around 12 degrees at the height of the storm nah., it started off frigid but then warmed incredibly never did know why with such rates still, the nagging temp issues reappear after 18z suite allayed them for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston/SNE really benefits from how it juts out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 hrs GFS sounding DCA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BTW... the UKIE is a little better this run w/ the LP tracking along the VA/NC border, but its OTS quickly. Hard to tell exactly, but it seems to get 1" up to DCA. Looks alot like the NAM to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dont know if anybody cares but the Ukie came a little north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston/SNE really benefits from how it juts out into the Atlantic. I knew that. Just playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 hrs GFS sounding DCA area GFS_3_2013030400_F54_39.0000N_77.0000W.png you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. We had 980 reply threads for a .18 clipper...now all hell breaks loose if model shows only 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty sure this is a snow sounding at 60 hrs for DCA http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013030400_F60_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm calling this storm pd3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? It has the moist adiabats, they're curved dashed lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PDIII, dont stretch it...for DC Balt.... QPF is around 1.50-1.75.....A bit will be lost to rain and snow that doesnt stick right away. Then you're stuck with bad ratios...There is no chance that DC hits 96/PDii #s...But they could def. do 6-12 if things go right. I tried to qualify that in my post... it is march... and temps are an issue... I am just saying from what the model depicted... the overall geographic extent.. million of people impacted.. and not mention.. 12 inches would be around 7:1 ratios with the amounts depicted... 12 inches would break a record for March I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you have one with adiabats (to show instability)? my bad... my eyes are getting tired. I honestly did not see that. Looks OK, but not very unstable in that sounding. Don't think thats the heavy stuff yet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's extremely pathetic I remember during Snowmagedon people were freaking out because they thought we were only gonna get 15 inches instead of 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Do you all realize that Wes Junker typed the words "double digit accumulations" three times in his latest article, "thundersnow" once and "Dynamic" four times... does anyone truly understand the significance of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys do realize this run is a complete outlier right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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