Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 who cares...it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah no kidding, ouch. .1-.25 in QPF in Northern Balto county/Carroll county and over to Harford Co Md .5 QPF from HGR to Balto City, .75 from MRB to Frederick MD, 1" from OKV to DCA and then south it just silly QPF of 1.25 to 2" It's the NAM. Everyone needs to calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Incredible precip map, especially down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's the NAM's deadly range? This is not it right? 48 hrs though? within 6hrs, the the verification usually starts to get close to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The main issue I suppose at this point is that it's a bit towards the Euro. True. If the 0z Euro holds, and the GFS also holds, we'll have a head scratcher on our hands, but it still won't be time to change our thinking of the storm. Now, if either A) the 0z GFS moves towards the NAM/Euro, or B.) the next 12z NAM holds onto the S jog, while the 12z Euro holds - then it's time to start rethinking this thing. I'm going to start having a hard time going against the NAM/Euro combo 48 hours before the event. I still think that the banding will end up further n than what the NAM depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While it creams MBY, I want to see some more support before getting to attached to this solution. Still far from over for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As currently depicted, Baltimore and burbs probably not too happy... Dang, I know I said earlier about being concerned about getting too much snow but this would be a big bag of WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 True. If the 0z Euro holds, and the GFS also holds, we'll have a head scratcher on our hands, but it still won't be time to change our thinking of the storm. Now, if either A) the 0z GFS moves towards the NAM/Euro, or the next 12z NAM holds onto the S jog, while the 12z Euro holds - then it's time to start rethinking this thing. I'm going to start having a hard time going against the NAM/Euro combo 48 hours before the event. I'm making no statements yet until the full 00z suite is in but just toss the NAM altogether. I remember how "wonderful" the NAM/ECMWF combination was for my area before the 2/8-9 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Going by the clown maps I'm assuming the lower rates in MD cause less cooling and thus we stay mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thank god the NAM went south - being in the bullseye (in DC) scares me 2 days out. Plenty of time to jog north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thank god the NAM went south - being in the bullseye (in DC) scares me 2 days out. Plenty of time to jog north. it would be pretty funny if the gfs jogs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thank god the NAM went south - being in the bullseye (in DC) scares me 2 days out. Plenty of time to jog north. Yeah, DCA is still so close to the jackpot that if no consensus is reached tonight, we'll be nowcasting snow amounts on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 00Z Nam at the SFC is right smack in between the 18Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF at 54/60/66 hours, then joins up with the GFS off the VA Capes at 72. Moreover, the latest NAM lines up perfectly within the EC Ensemble mean at 54 hrs (06Z Wed), though lifts a little farther N of the EC Mean (along the ern VA/NC border) by 12Z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm making no statements yet until the full 00z suite is in but just toss the NAM altogether. I remember how "wonderful" the NAM/ECMWF combination was for my area before the 2/8-9 storm. Exactly. Toss it aside and wait for GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 tossing models is just as stupid as hugging them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 tossing models is just as stupid as hugging them. Not when it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 tossing models is just as stupid as hugging them. +1 You can't throw out every solution that screws your backyard. But I also think people need to come down and wait for the 00z suite before cancelling anything as HM said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 who cares...it's the NAMYeah except it looks like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 such a tight wound thing tough few days coming for some of us I suspect On the 00Z NAM, I'm 20 miles from 0.15" and 25 miles from 1.50" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone lol'd at the 12 and 18Z NAM, now we are taking it as gospel? C'mon man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's not totally out to lunch compared to other guidance. Not saying it's right, but 100% ignoring it is just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There's always a last minute jog north. At least that's what I always hear from anyone counting on a last minute jog north. But seriously, haven't I heard lore of how fearsome 1/96 looked for Richmond and how uncertain it looked for NY/NE until just hours before the event's onset, when the extent of the phase was picked up by the models?? I like where we sit. (Assuming of course the GFS holds serve in 15 minutes.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is there a difference between the 4km HI-RES NAM and the regular NAM? Based off of sim radar at 60... the HI-RES is further north by a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There's always a last minute jog north. At least that's what I always hear from anyone counting on a last minute jog north. But seriously, haven't I heard lore of how fearsome 1/96 looked for Richmond and how uncertain it looked for NY/NE until just hours before the event's onset, when the extent of the phase was picked up by the models?? I like where we sit. (Assuming of course the GFS holds serve in 15 minutes.) modes in 96 are a hell of a lot different than models in 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There's always a last minute jog north. At least that's what I always hear from anyone counting on a last minute jog north. But seriously, haven't I heard lore of how fearsome 1/96 looked for Richmond and how uncertain it looked for NY/NE until just hours before the event's onset, when the extent of the phase was picked up by the models?? I like where we sit. (Assuming of course the GFS holds serve in 15 minutes.) Everytime we needed a jog north...it went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone lol'd at the 12 and 18Z NAM, now we are taking it as gospel? C'mon man! Nam is useless. I went from 2" qpf to .1 in one run and it does that all the time even 24 hours before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is there a difference between the 4km HI-RES NAM and the regular NAM? Based off of sim radar at 60... the HI-RES is further north Don't know if there's any phsyics differences but higher res lets it resolve small scale features more. But its also due to convective feedback issues and spin ups... anyway do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I was reading earlier that a piece of energy helps kick the 500 low se? Seems like that's what just happened. The Nam was slower and not as deep early and then the thing just sort of took off. Made the stall much less of a feature. Precip now out of my area much sooner. Interesting thought, at least to me, is what happens if the 500 low isnt as deep and further north, which has happened all year, and the kicker in the ne isn't there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't know if there's any phsyics differences but higher res lets it resolve small scale features more. But its also due to convective feedback issues and spin ups... anyway do you have a link? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires_area_param.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=20130304+00+UTC&area=namer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's not totally out to lunch compared to other guidance. Not saying it's right, but 100% ignoring it is just stupid. Exactly...especially when the current NAM solution is somewhere in between the GFS (farther N/wetter for DC) and the EC (farther S/drier). Those of us in the DC area need to take solace that, at least for now, the NAM *still* is north of the EC and even north of the EC Mean by 60-84 hours. However, yes it could very well be the beginning of a trend toward the EC. Will be interesting to see if the 00Z GFS and GEFS...and 03Z SREF...do the same thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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