Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL, we sit here struggling to get a storm and SNE farts and they have purples. Boston can get snow from a miller F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There's no reason to post unless you have new info to add... I don't post when things are bad because I don't care as much. I don't follow it as closely nor spend much time on my own interpretations. Dunno if this was directed at me or not, but I kinda feel like it was. It wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is no way the Gfs can give Boston a foot and euro nothing 2 days before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS is delicious. The 500 mb low stalls at the coast and phases just a bit and it almost seems as if the SLP center is dragged back in toward our region for a couple of heartbeats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS is delicious. The 500 mb low stalls at the coast and phases just a bit and it almost seems as if the SLP center is dragged back in toward our region for a couple of heartbeats. You can clearly see it in the 66-72 panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 hate to say it, but per accuwx text, the gfs is warmer than 18z at bwi 34-35 during the height hopefully that's change back some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS pinches off the NW Atlantic / New England wave so much that it meanders to Lake Ontario this run. Also, the northern wave that the storm breaks off originally has no effect. Between the NW Atlantic wave breaking off so far west and the lack of any momentum transfer from the northern wave, the storm is free to amplify/go negatively tilted sooner. This is the first run that did that with the NW Atlantic/New England wave. By retrograding west this much, it allows the ridging to improve and gives room for the wave to amplify over the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It retrophases with a piece of the New England low and that pulls the system into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS much warmer, would be half a rain event even up into parts of the DC metro Not with those rates. Soundings have consistently been below freezing where it counts. It will be messy on the surface but not rainy for most until you get closer to the bay. Gfs is showing a ridiculous pivoting deform band. Someone would have tssn for sure (verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BOS gets more qpf than BWI...and colder, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS pinches off the NW Atlantic / New England wave so much that it meanders to Lake Ontario this run. Also, the northern wave that the storm breaks off originally has no effect. Between the NW Atlantic wave breaking off so far west and the lack of any momentum transfer from the northern wave, the storm is free to amplify/go negatively tilted sooner. This is the first run that did that with the NW Atlantic/New England wave. By retrograding west this much, it allows the ridging to improve and gives room for the wave to amplify over the Mid Atlantic. any clue with the BL is warmer slightly? All this should indicate more cold air injection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BOS gets more qpf than BWI...and colder, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BOS gets more qpf than BWI...and colder, of course You knew the snow gods wouldn't make them sit this one out. Our event will end up being a sideshow, you watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 any clue with the BL is warmer slightly? All this should indicate more cold air injection. Why would this indicate more cold air? The stuff I'm talking about is influencing the amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You knew the snow gods wouldn't make them sit this one out. Our event will end up being a sideshow, you watch. definitely finding a new hobby next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How does jyo get more qpf than DCA. Rarely see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 what's nice is that every model is showing streak breaker amounts for the dc metro area, which is all most of us probably were hoping for. great to see the gfs hold serve. looking forward to what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 definitely finding a new hobby next winter Nino will suck you right back in. Mark my words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BOS gets more qpf than BWI...and colder, of course at least we're in on the action this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I remember the morning of PDI, after the insane rates ended and it was light snow at the very end of the storm temps were at 34 or so insane rates sure can help but there's other stuff going on that can spoil the cooling effects of those rates..I just don't know what they are technically speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You knew the snow gods wouldn't make them sit this one out. Our event will end up being a sideshow, you watch. Most of us mets up there are having some fun at the expense of the GFS. Its a terrible model in big east coast storms...it makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. It almost nevers scores the coup in big storms. I'd be surprised if it did in this one. I do think the Euro is too far south, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its a lot more right than the GFS...especially as it pertains up to this region. For down there in that region, a slight shift north of the Euro makes it a much better storm for BWI and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When it comes to GFS or NAM, which one do you want in your camp? Now when we're talking about GFS vs Euro... Fwiw euro nailed blizzard up north. Gfs was only southeast outlier until it trended last run to euro.Do I think that holds any importance here? No. But euro is wrong sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol I don't care if Boston gets 30 as long as we get ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why would this indicate more cold air? The stuff I'm talking about is influencing the amplification. normally injection from a Northern Stream shortwave would mean more cold air becuase of air mass source region, although in this case, since it broke off from the original storm to some extent, that rulle probably doesn't apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of us mets up there are having some fun at the expense of the GFS. Its a terrible model in big east coast storms...it makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. It almost nevers scores the coup in big storms. I'd be surprised if it did in this one. I do think the Euro is too far south, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its a lot more right than the GFS...especially as it pertains up to this region. For down there in that region, a slight shift north of the Euro makes it a much better storm for BWI and northward. Even at 48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston can get snow from a miller F You don't know anything about boston climo. Neither you or phin. City gets the shaft regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only in this forum can a 2"+ QPF event be turned into a debbie downer session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There still is a sharp cutoff north of the Mason Dixon line.something else to watch. It is good news that the GFS stalls the heaviest band right over Northern DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even at 48 hours out? Esp at that time range...though for SNE, the storm would be more like 72-96 hours as it flips the ULL slowly northward after it exits the Mid-atlantic coast. The meat of the event for DC is still about in the 60 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the evolution of the GFS is just weird to me. I highly doubt this phases up the coast. I don't buy that retrograding vort in to NNE at all unless I see other models pick up on it or more run to run consistently. GFS has been ALL over the place with the evolution of the N Atl low. This kind of variance IMO is quite ridiculous this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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