Avdave Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, took a southern jog...but it's still juicy enough. Still an inch QPF for DCA thru 75, not a bad showing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does the clown key go up to 75" for central va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro always win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why people are talking about the NAM being way south. It isn't. The 500 mb low comes off the coast at NC, not SC. The surface low is not really south either. The NAM is not taking the EURO kool-aid. The precip shield moved south about 25-40 miles...For example the 18z NAM gave me in Philly .75-1.00, the 00z? 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 damn you euro!! Well, it's always worrisome when the EUro doesn't hop on board. Anxious to see the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why people are talking about the NAM being way south. It isn't. The 500 mb low comes off the coast at NC, not SC. The surface low is not really south either. The NAM is not taking the EURO kool-aid. It isn't how much further south it is, it's the qpf cutoff to the north that makes us think about the euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro always win Except when it shows a big snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Darn, we only get just over an inch this time. Storm cancel!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 such a tight wound thing tough few days coming for some of us I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its still out of its good range. Has plenty of time to go south and miss us completely Probably circle around us and hit Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its definitely trending toward the Euro wrt phasing. I still am not buying a final solution yet. Interesting in that the shortwave that eventually phases with it was once a part of it which splits and goes north, then tries to rephase later on. I imagine the slower solution is the cause of this. Want to see where the rest of the 0Z suite comes in. Anyone within 50 - 75 miles of the bullseye could be it at this point, in reality in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its all about the energy rotating around the ULL, how fast it gets around determines how north the precip is "pushed" north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Darn, we only get just over an inch this time. Storm cancel!! qpf drops off dramatically north of DCA I think BWI went from close to 2" to maybe .6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Darn, we only get just over an inch this time. Storm cancel!! yea but trends suck. hopefully it doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As currently depicted, Baltimore and burbs probably not too happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brutal QPF gradient, but I wouldn't worry about the NAM's precip gradient at 60+ hours. 50mi difference is still teeny tiny at this stage, especially for the NAM. Yeah no kidding, ouch. .1-.25 in QPF in Northern Balto county/Carroll county and over to Harford Co Md .5 QPF from HGR to Balto City, .75 from MRB to Frederick MD, 1" from OKV to DCA and then south it just silly QPF of 1.25 to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's just one run, and not the best timeframe for the NAM performance-wise. I'm not quite buying the S jog, unless it becomes a real trend, which it isn't at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its definitely trending toward the Euro wrt phasing. I still am not buying a final solution yet. Interesting in that the shortwave that eventually phases with it was once a part of it which splits and goes north, then tries to rephase later on. I imagine the slower solution is the cause of this. Want to see where the rest of the 0Z suite comes in. Anyone within 50 - 75 miles of the bullseye could be it at this point, in reality in either direction. I said the last 2 runs I don't like it when a model slows, but it didn't hurt BWI at 12z or 18z but eventually, it starts to, like on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 such a tight wound thing tough few days coming for some of us I suspect I don't buy the tight wound solution just yet. Interesting configuration for sure, not one that I think I've totally seen before. I think this should put a final nail in the coffin that the SREFs are NO predictor of the NAM, as they are based off of old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 yea but trends suck. hopefully it doesn't continue. What trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's just one run, and not the best timeframe for the NAM performance-wise. I'm not quite buying the S jog, unless it becomes a real trend, which it isn't at this point. The main issue I suppose at this point is that it's a bit towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What trend? i meant, in general, we don't want a bad trend. i never like jogs to the south as we near an event, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I said the last 2 runs I don't like it when a model slows, but it didn't hurt BWI at 12z or 18z but eventually, it starts to, like on this run I want to see how/when that northern shortwave splits off. I don't think thats an evolution I've ever seen. A spoke splitting off the bowling ball only trying to re-entangle later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe it's right, but I think y'all are worrying about the NAM too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Back to a CHO bullseye. They are gonna get so burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 congrats weathervswife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It isn't how much further south it is, it's the qpf cutoff to the north that makes us think about the euro's solution. Yeah, the EURO may be right for the wrong reason. The Euro clearly shoves the 500 mb to the SE. The NAM places the low near enough to our area but introduces the precipitation gradient from Hades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I said the last 2 runs I don't like it when a model slows, but it didn't hurt BWI at 12z or 18z but eventually, it starts to, like on this run Starts to is an understatement... That clown map is indicative of these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's the NAM's deadly range? This is not it right? 48 hrs though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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