wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's hangin' a lot more energy back over the upper midwest. Heights over mid-atl slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 surface looks almost identical 0z at 39 vs. 18z at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think that will change in the next panel or two Its closed off again at 45... but there are two separate pieces it looks like (see what wxmeddler said above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip axis now N of Chicago and into Lake Michigan by 25-50 mi. Congrats Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope once the highest vorticity rounds the ULL it doesn't kick it SE here. The GFS & old NAM runs were more north because at this point energy was already closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does look different on front end but final solution still looks good IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 surface looks almost identical 0z at 39 vs. 18z at 45 Yeah, odd given that the h5 looks different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Closed off again at 45. Two pieces of energy still ... straggler piece in western TN. Will have to see if consolidate in later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its closed off again at 45... but there are two separate pieces it looks like (see what wxmeddler said above) N Atl block is further east too... I don't think at this point less consolidation means further SE... if anything I think it will pull it north slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does look different on front end but final solution still looks good IMO you have the post 45 hour panels already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Closed off again at 45. Two pieces of energy still ... straggler piece in western TN. Will have to see if consolidate in later panels. It appears its trying to get its act together at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I like how the NAM closes off the low just before it reaches the TN/KY border... vort energy circling around the south side of the 5h low should help it track Eward towards the VA capes. Good for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Both the block and the bowling ball are weaker. Interesting changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty much consolidated at 48. I would lay money this is still a good solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most of the energy is on the backside of the shortwave...As it is rounding the ULL it might kind of push it SE here, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 no, the vort is not as tight and strong at 48 than 54 hrs on the 18z, but wait for that energy coming in on the back side to spin it up better in the next panel I think that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 48 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Energy is moving in at 51... but h5 is slightly SW a bit comparing to 18z at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty much consolidated at 48. I would lay money this is still a good solution. Problem is most of the energy on previous runs was already rounding the bend...The energy is lagging here on the 00z...I think it will get its act together but a bit farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well, it is wetter than 18z if that could be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Rounding the bend at 51. PVA/precip into Southwest VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks like it might be a hair south this run, but wetter. hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm starting to converge on an idea which will be my first guess for the DC area: Start out as rain, change to snow tues night/wed morning, SN+ or TSSN banding during Wed, taper wed night. Will have some wind, but blizzard conditions for 3+ hours won't verify. 10-15" DC, S&E suburbs 15-20" N&W suburbs Large gradient of snow totals along I-95 between fredericksburg and baltimore. I don't believe sleet or ZR will occur, from what I see on the soundings. What will hold down totals for DC / SE is rain that will be slow to change to snow, and low ratios. Going to be really tough to shovel, be careful with your backs (and your hearts). Take lots of breaks. Hoping for minimal power outages, but there will be some of those. Someone with elevation (blue ridge) might see up to 22-25" and be on the top of the snow totals in the public info statements. Very very bullish in my opinion, but good luck. I don't think a widespread 12"+ is likely, except for maybe the far north/west suburbs because lower elevations could have a number of issues, such as a 33-34 degree boundary layer which tends to be much more stubborn in melting snow on contact than higher grounds (I saw this for myself on 1/26/2011 when I was at UMD). Even with the colder burbs, I can't come up with any reason to think they'll get significantly more than the 8-14" they saw on 1/26/2011. The NAM is obviously overdone, I also think the 18z GFS with its DC bullseye is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Certainly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wait for the rise... edit: or lack there of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 h5 is better... but note there is more energy on the backside starting to dive in that wasn't there at 60 on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 biggest trend I noticed this run is a hell of a lot more phasing. Also the trough at 51 looks to be taking a slight neg. tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its def south a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Much wetter...surface looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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