WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To those posting precip totals for srefs, are you getting those by adding, or is there a site that has that. I know PSU has it, but I rarely see 21z updated this early there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 similar...maybe a tad wetter for me and you and a tad more south, but very similar Despite it being NAM driven it is good to see consistency regardless of the effectiveness of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty good read from Bob Ryan's blog. http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2013/03/snow-storm-wednesday-more-likely-18222.html I'm really encouraged that he gives 70% chance of 6"+, considering how conservative he's known to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's are colder at BWI last run the 0-850 line mean got to just a hair north of BWI this run, it stays south of BWI at least 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I was visiting my dad in st. Mary's county in 03 where we got 7" of snow followed by about 5"of sleet. It was not a fun experience, especially since where I lived in moco had 22" on the ground even when I got home a week later. Made up for it big time though in 2010. Honestly, all I'm really looking for at this point is a good period of +TSSN. I've had my super high total fix for now. Still would love to see this in the 15-20" range which I don't think is out of the question here in moco.Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 In Upper Marlboro we had about 14" of snow followed by sleet practically all afternoon followed by snow later that evening for a total of 19" Had it not been for the sleet, I would've had 2-ft or more... Being able to experience 09-10 without having to worry much (if at all) about being hampered by a sleet changeover makes the season that much more exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's are colder at BWI last run the 0-850 line mean got to just a hair north of BWI this run, it stays south of BWI at least 30 miles[/quote Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I kinda forgot about the upper low coming through Monday. That gave us another inch or two Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yes, I have some health issues and shoveling a foot and a half of snow would be trying at this point. I do have a snow blower so that takes some of the worry off me. Got it...it is easy to get wrapped up in just the fun part of the storm...and this will be some wet snow like shoveling soaked rags...be careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The fall line basically runs right along I-95. For parts of the mid-Atlantic(toward Philadelphia and south near Stafford) that is pretty close but for us here in the DC area, the fall line is quite a bit further west. Think Great Falls. That is the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For parts of the mid-Atlantic(toward Philadelphia and south near Stafford) that is pretty close but for us here in the DC area, the fall line is quite a bit further west. Think Great Falls. That is the fall line. Nah, Great Falls, IAD and Rockville are well to the west of the fall line. Found this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW, DTs first map from Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is rolling Keep us posted. Hope it can pull 4" QPF! Then we cut it in half for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW, DTs first map from Facebook: 1STGUESS.jpg that is odly conservative for DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW, DTs first map from Facebook: 1STGUESS.jpg errrro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's are colder at BWI last run the 0-850 line mean got to just a hair north of BWI this run, it stays south of BWI at least 30 miles I shared your temperature woes ... and still do. Living in Annapolis will do that to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 that is odly conservative for DT. I thought the same thing. With that said, that looks really reasonable to me given the start as rain, and the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is a TAD north a 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not much change on the NAM, perhaps it makes its turn south like 20-50 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ULL @ 36 is quite different from the 18z NAm @ 42....Seems to be a separate piece of energy straggling to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM not digging the SW as fast as 18z. H5 Ridge axis is slower. It is not trending towards the Euro, or the 18z GFS, which was faster than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm starting to converge on an idea which will be my first guess for the DC area: Start out as rain, change to snow tues night/wed morning, SN+ or TSSN banding during Wed, taper wed night. Will have some wind, but blizzard conditions for 3+ hours won't verify. 10-15" DC, S&E suburbs 15-20" N&W suburbs Large gradient of snow totals along I-95 between fredericksburg and baltimore. I don't believe sleet or ZR will occur, from what I see on the soundings. What will hold down totals for DC / SE is rain that will be slow to change to snow, and low ratios. Going to be really tough to shovel, be careful with your backs (and your hearts). Take lots of breaks. Hoping for minimal power outages, but there will be some of those. Someone with elevation (blue ridge) might see up to 22-25" and be on the top of the snow totals in the public info statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ULL @ 36 is quite different from the 18z NAm @ 42....Seems to be a separate piece of energy straggling to the south of it. doesn't honestly surprise me. The stj shortwave is dragging its heals coming on the coast. Can't say for sure what this means yet. I'm bad at prognosticating models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ULL @ 36 is quite different from the 18z NAm @ 42....Seems to be a separate piece of energy straggling to the south of it. a little slower again it seems vs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Little more hanging to the south into Oklahoma at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Me too! And I love the name "winturd" !!! =) Ha. Sure has been that for the past few years. Bring this storm on...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm starting to converge on an idea which will be my first guess for the DC area: Start out as rain, change to snow tues night/wed morning, SN+ or TSSN banding during Wed, taper wed night. Will have some wind, but blizzard conditions for 3+ hours won't verify. 10-15" DC, S&E suburbs 15-20" N&W suburbs Large gradient of snow totals along I-95 between fredericksburg and baltimore. I don't believe sleet or ZR will occur, from what I see on the soundings. What will hold down totals for DC / SE is rain that will be slow to change to snow, and low ratios. Going to be really tough to shovel, be careful with your backs (and your hearts). Take lots of breaks. Hoping for minimal power outages, but there will be some of those. Someone with elevation (blue ridge) might see up to 22-25" and be on the top of the snow totals in the public info statements. I will this forecast and run with it...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its not a consolidated vort anymore at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its not a consolidated vort anymore at 39 I think that will change in the next panel or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm starting to converge on an idea which will be my first guess for the DC area: Start out as rain, change to snow tues night/wed morning, SN+ or TSSN banding during Wed, taper wed night. Will have some wind, but blizzard conditions for 3+ hours won't verify. 10-15" DC, S&E suburbs 15-20" N&W suburbs Large gradient of snow totals along I-95 between fredericksburg and baltimore. I don't believe sleet or ZR will occur, from what I see on the soundings. What will hold down totals for DC / SE is rain that will be slow to change to snow, and low ratios. Going to be really tough to shovel, be careful with your backs (and your hearts). Take lots of breaks. Hoping for minimal power outages, but there will be some of those. Someone with elevation (blue ridge) might see up to 22-25" and be on the top of the snow totals in the public info statements. Wow. Bullish. And I will take that 22-25 thank you very much. Thanks for posting this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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