yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... I will probably just use them to see what the h5 passage looks like to get an idea for the NAM... I guess a peak at its QPF wouldn't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anxiously awaiting the NAM. Think I wouldn't mind it all to see a slight southerly jog. Hey, is there any reason (synoptic-based) modeled QPF could increase further region-wide, or that temp profiles become cooler? If we truly do receive 1.75"+ QPF that's 90% snow, measuring a 6-10er just won't cut it for me. I dont think any of us care when people have unreasonable expectations or some demands on what must happen...It is fine if you feel that way, but no need to look for outside help because getting an 8" snowstorm unacceptable to you...go chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Good confidence boost sometimes. Beware of sharp edges tho. OKC ftl last Monday. That gradient looks fairly sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... That's because the NAM is in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'd have to look for the date, but remember the forecast called for something silly like 30+ inches of snow, warm layer wrapped in and all fell as sleet. We got the quantity, just wrong form. As a side note, it is still flurrying here, been falling for 5+ days, just never has accumulated due to rates. LOTS of T's..... yea might have been a different storm than. i remember them calling for winter storm warning snow but not that much. i just remember most of it falling as sleet instead of snow and hearing ny getting pummeled by snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... Way way way too early for sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... I thought they were a good short range model, see how things are setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The only thing I would look for in the SREF's is the way our bowling ball exits the coast. The 15z sref's had 7 wrapping up to the N, 7 going more or less straight off the coast of Norfolk and 7 diving south in a euro-esk fashion. If that balance changes significantly in one way or the other than we have an idea of what to expect with the 0z suite. Looking at precip amounts for individual members is trivial and a waste of time at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's because the NAM is in there. i know...so what is the point if they simpy support the NAM which we know sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OKC ftl last Monday. That gradient looks fairly sharp. not sure who unapproved that but actually thought about it earlier... remember they got screwed on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Way way way too early for sref eh, we're not that far out anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i know...so what is the point if they simpy support the NAM which we know sucks in some ways they're probably better than the nam for a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why people hate sleet, it is frozen and almost sort of white like snow. It's that hideous "ping" sound that it makes, for one. Also, It is seriously easy to slip and fall on sleet provided there's a layer of it on the ground, a fact I learned more than once during the Feb '07 sleet storm. Sleet is not picturesque- it does not recreate landscapes like snow. And no one keeps track of the Top 5 Biggest Sleet Storms or hopes to break the the all-time seasonal sleet-fall record. My first memory of sleet was that time during the '95 blizzard, when my location lost precious hours of heavy precip to sleet. Happened again in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the sleet storm you all were probably referring to was Jan 17-18 1994 . We got about 6-8 inches in northern carroll. I remember that storm. For me, it was prolonged heavy ZR overnight that plastered 3 inches of solid ice. Heard that if it was all snow, it would have been more than 2 ft. I was a freshman in high school, and watching the snow change over to sleet and freezing rain at a temp of 19* is not something I would wish upon even my worst enemies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why people hate sleet, it is frozen and almost sort of white like snow. It's that hideous "ping" sound that it makes, for one. Also, It is seriously easy to slip and fall on sleet provided there's a layer of it on the ground, a fact I learned more than once during the Feb '07 sleet storm. Sleet is not picturesque- it does not recreate landscapes like snow. And no one keeps track of the Top 5 Biggest Sleet Storms or hopes to break the the all-time seasonal sleet-fall record. My first memory of sleet was that time during the '95 blizzard, when my location lost precious hours of heavy precip to sleet. Happened again in 2003. I was visiting my dad in st. Mary's county in 03 where we got 7" of snow followed by about 5"of sleet. It was not a fun experience, especially since where I lived in moco had 22" on the ground even when I got home a week later. Made up for it big time though in 2010. Honestly, all I'm really looking for at this point is a good period of +TSSN. I've had my super high total fix for now. Still would love to see this in the 15-20" range which I don't think is out of the question here in moco. Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I dont think any of us care when people have unreasonable expectations or some demands on what must happen...It is fine if you feel that way, but no need to look for outside help because getting an 8" snowstorm unacceptable to you...go chase... All I am saying is, Why not end the epic snow drought with a bang-- a KU and a new 24/hr snowfall record for March! 12" would do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So long as we get the precip to help with the spring leaf out and wildfire season, it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 All I am saying is, Why not end the epic snow drought with a bang-- a KU and a new 24/hr snowfall record for March! 12" would do the trick I think we had a poll along those lines a couple of months ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am actually concerned about getting too much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty good read from Bob Ryan's blog. http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2013/03/snow-storm-wednesday-more-likely-18222.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 21z SREF DCA - ~1.75, DC Metro - mostly 1.5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 eh, we're not that far out anymore. I would only use it within 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF's are out. Outliers are a bit more progressive but the mean is still in the same place. Looks like 2-3 members still are hanging onto the euro track. Overall, no change to the track and more members coming to a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 21z SREF DCA - ~1.75, DC Metro - mostly 1.5+ H5 Still looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am actually concerned about getting too much snow. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 21z SREF DCA - ~1.75, DC Metro - mostly 1.5+ Was that an increase from the previous run? Sorry, running pretty tired here this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seriously? yes, I have some health issues and shoveling a foot and a half of snow would be trying at this point. I do have a snow blower so that takes some of the worry off me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Was that an increase from the previous run? Sorry, running pretty tired here this evening. 15z was 1.74 at DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Was that an increase from the previous run? Sorry, running pretty tired here this evening. similar...maybe a tad wetter for me and you and a tad more south, but very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z was 1.74 at DCA... So pretty much a hold... thats good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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