lsukev Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Almost split half and half now. Is this the GFS ensemble individual members? At what point do we start weighting the Op more heavily than the ensemble? I seem to remember that after a certain point the ensembles should be weighted less heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is this the GFS ensemble individual members? At what point to we start weighting the Op more heavily than the individuals? I seem to remember that after a certain point the ensembles should be weighted less heavily. It's at right about at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I count 8 that are "hits" at least for MBY. Maybe head to the PA forum and discuss the fringing there? Don't count the OP. And right now considering a hit as 1"+ for central MD It's pretty close to split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Don't count the OP. And right now considering a hit as 1"+ for central MD It's pretty close to split. 7 out of 11 = 63.6 percent... nice try though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is this the GFS ensemble individual members? At what point do we start weighting the Op more heavily than the ensemble? I seem to remember that after a certain point the ensembles should be weighted less heavily. We are at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good to see you back from the dead. We need you! I swear...... look, my issue, for the 55th time, was that we needed it to bomb to be snow it now bombs so it now snows the extra precip and cooler temps are added bonuses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Are the LWX snow maps from Earl Barker useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 winterymix! (punny) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty interesting that a lot of the ensembles are all over the place. It shows how just small change in the ULL and where the max vorticity is can change where the heavy precip falls. I'm rooting for you guys because I'm hoping to make a road trip as well, but I would not feel that comfortable at all yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if i get 1.4" of sleet im going to lose it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 winterymix! (punny) Untitled-15.jpg Not sure why people hate sleet, it is frozen and almost sort of white like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Rain to sleet to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if i get 1.4" of sleet im going to lose it But really, how likely is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But really, how likely is that? i dunno. i wouldnt be shocked tho 1.4" would be a surprise. it still give dc like 9" snow too on that run. not sure how accurate the meteograms are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With the incremental trend to shift more to the NE, it wouldn't surprise me if it ended up hugging the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why people hate sleet, it is frozen and almost sort of white like snow. sleet doesn't do much for me, just like hail in the summer doesn't do much for me. snow is just a lot cooler to look at and relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But really, how likely is that? i dunno. i wouldnt be shocked tho 1.4" would be a surprise. it still give dc like 9" snow too on that run. not sure how accurate the meteograms are. It's actually done quite well. They've basically shut out DC this year. If anything, they might be slightly bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i dunno. i wouldnt be shocked tho 1.4" would be a surprise. it still give dc like 9" snow too on that run. not sure how accurate the meteograms are. I wouldn't be too worried about pellets. Just looking at the 18Z GFS but BUFKIT (IAD,DCA, and BWI), but I see no signs of pellets at all. Even unsaturated right before the column saturates, pellets wouldn't be likely (completely ignoring the fact that the column is dry/void of precip). Once saturation begins, the wet bulb profile is cool enough that the entire column above the BL goes below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wouldn't be too worried about pellets. Just looking at the 18Z GFS but BUFKIT (IAD,DCA, and BWI), but I see no signs of pellets at all. Even unsaturated right before the column saturates, pellets wouldn't be likely (completely ignoring the fact that the column is dry/void of precip). Once saturation begins, the wet bulb profile is cool enough that the entire column above the BL goes below freezing. Yeah we discussed that earlier just hadn't seen it on that product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I understand that he's been blogging, I find Wes's absence notable. He was on here during the 18z NAM/GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I understand that he's been blogging, I find Wes's absence notable. His afternoon CWG update was bullish... especially for him... very much "Wes- like" he basically gave us a 33-33-33 shot for three different scenarios... he is the hands-down best making an "I don't know what is gonna happen forecast" look fancy and sophisticated... sometimes I dont think he realizes he is doing it when he does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I understand that he's been blogging, I find Wes's absence notable. Thats a great sign. Wes is the medical examiner of this board. He shows up, delivers a grim prognosis and picks up the body. As long as the prospects are alive and kicking no need for the toe tag guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I understand that he's been blogging, I find Wes's absence notable. He's on vacation. He's very much into it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if i get 1.4" of sleet im going to lose it I can remember 7+ of sleet one time, that was nasty. AND stayed around for a long time....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can remember 7+ of sleet one time, that was nasty. i think in 94 we had a brutal sleet storm, but i think that was because the storm came a little further west than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's all a matter of +SN at the lower elevations...March 58 fell in a few hours at 33-34 degrees....Palm Sunday in maybe 6-7 hours at 32-33....Feb 87 at 33...Jan 26 at 33-34 (of course sun angle much more favorable).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anxiously awaiting the NAM. Think I wouldn't mind it all to see a slight southerly jog. Hey, is there any reason (synoptic-based) modeled QPF could increase further region-wide, or that temp profiles become cooler? If we truly do receive 1.75"+ QPF that's 90% snow, measuring a 6-10er just won't cut it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i think in 94 we had a brutal sleet storm, but i think that was because the storm came a little further west than expected. I'd have to look for the date, but remember the forecast called for something silly like 30+ inches of snow, warm layer wrapped in and all fell as sleet. We got the quantity, just wrong form. As a side note, it is still flurrying here, been falling for 5+ days, just never has accumulated due to rates. LOTS of T's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF out in 25-30 min...do we care?..I never give them as much value as others...they dont seem to diverge much from teh NAM..... Good confidence boost sometimes. Beware of sharp edges tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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