NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches? I think it's because the first bit is rain, and then the ratios are very wet, please someone correct me if that's wrong. Either way.. Literal DC bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches? for us at low elevation I'd probably take 70% of QPF since it is obscene and then use 7:1 or 8:1 ratios...If I was forecasting off the 18z GFS, I'd probably go 10-14" for DCA/Cap Hill and 15-20" for Rockville etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that. With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 for us at low elevation I'd probably take 70% of QPF since it is obscene and then use 7:1 or 8:1 ratios...If I was forecasting off the 18z GFS, I'd probably go 10-14" for DCA/Cap Hill and 15-20" for Rockville etc... DCA would have a good shot at getting in the range of 11/11/87, 3/29/42, 2/23/87 type totals...those would be decent analogs I think for the type of storm you would get on teh coastal plain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package "A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours." That'd be right on the cusp. I think you'll start seeing them show up after the 12z suite for southern parts of the CWA. Below: Yes, the radar is about an hour ahead...but I've circled a few areas (Intellicast also doesn't exactly snag Canada, either) Also note the 850 temps. Granted, this is only 15 hours out -> but these are the things that I'm looking at. That being said - I think Philadelphia is still very much in the game - I'm not sold on the New England idea yet, I'm still favoring the Euro's tougher ballgame with the confluence by a hair. But pattern recognition may well come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good lol... as a met student don't hate me for hearing exactly what i wanted to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that. Probably b/c drifting would be minimal IMO, Ratios too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where have you been? Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote. Fighting with physics. If I had my druthers, I'd say you were in the sweet spot. West of 270, north of 70 is where my money is at the moment. But your area isn't far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Probably b/c drifting would be minimal IMO, Ratios too low. Bingo. It'd be like trying to blow a wet towel around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 for us at low elevation I'd probably take 70% of QPF since it is obscene and then use 7:1 or 8:1 ratios...If I was forecasting off the 18z GFS, I'd probably go 10-14" for DCA/Cap Hill and 15-20" for Rockville etc... I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There were actually big changes on this run. SNE gets hit with precip Storm bombs offshore to 984mb Storm is slower to exit. These all make sense given that there is a strong closed H5 low. It was the quick moving 1002mb solutions that had me scratching my head. This is not a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bingo. It'd be like trying to blow a wet towel around. Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Always remember - Forecasting has always been stupid with numbers. 20% chance of rain? 20% of the area gets it/ 20% chance it falls over the whole area, part of the area? Same goes for snow. Those of us who measure with boards/gauges might find that DC Proper could well have a foot of snow. But what sticks and what falls...two different animals. That's where physics becomes fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Our local NWS office seems to think so ...STRONG NLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WED AFTN AND NGT. POWER OUTAGES WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN AREASTHAT RECEIVE HVY WET SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Oh absolutely, I was referencing more of the drifting aspect. This stuff is going to compact too. So the totals will be dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Oh absolutely, I was referencing more of the drifting aspect. This stuff is going to compact too. So the totals will be dubious. Yes, those that measure with boards place two side by side, clean one each 6 hour period, don't touch the other- difference will likely be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. I got almost 7" on 1/26 and over 4" on 2/2 again this is based on the GFS if that was my guidance, DC is not getting only 6"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up. And apparently we're not far off from this either... I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up. And apparently we're not far off from this either... lol those snow shower later on wednesday turned out to be much better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 BWI: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.2 -2.4 0.08 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.2 0.08 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.1 -3.9 0.59 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -4.4 0.67 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.7 -4.9 0.33 What about IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What about IAD Thought I posted but...... WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.2 -2.7 0.08 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.7 -2.4 0.12 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.6 -3.9 0.64 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.7 -4.7 0.63 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -5.2 0.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2013/post-4284-0-45336000-1362350334.png I found this enlightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OP GFS slightly north of the mean but not by much...very much in sync at this point with mean and individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OP GFS slightly north of the mean but not by much...very much in sync at this point with mean and individual members 72 panel of GEFS bullseye DC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All but in the bag.. Of course I'm out of town and due back on Wednesday night. Doubt that happens but at least I'll be stranded in New Orleans. Enjoy ****ers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 18z GEFS came a bit more realistic compared to the 12z GEFS for Philly/NYC, then again 18z GEFS puts DC right in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The thing that jumps out to me between this mornings GFS run and this evenings is the drop in pressure (and winds). This thing is really bombing out - what is the potential that temps drop even further than we worried about earlier today (e.g., upper 20s rather than lower 30s) thus increasing our ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Didn't 1/26/11 happen very quickly? I seem to remember that being a fast mover. I like your high end of 6-10, but with that last GFS run, I'd say 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The thing that jumps out to me between this mornings GFS run and this evenings is the drop in pressure (and winds). This thing is really bombing out - what is the potential that temps drop even further than we worried about earlier today (e.g., upper 20s rather than lower 30s) thus increasing our ratios? I'm no Met, but I'd say that's pretty much impossible with no real CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The slightly drier 18z look more realistic to me, i'm not sure but that 12z looked a little bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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