The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope

[Ian]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

[yoda]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

 

I am guessing this is DCA?

[thunderman]

Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside.

I would suspect we could have watches as early as tomorrow morning.

[PDIII]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

Well that is right in the middle of the day... but with those rates.. there should be accumulating snow.. it would be nice to watch it from my office window... seems like all of the little crap[y events we have had over the last few years have been at night... I am thinking we could score atleast 4 inch, 5 inch, 2 inch from that.

[stormtracker]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

BEdvMclCIAERqrW.png large.png

 

Where are the cleaner ones?

[Ji]

GFS gets bashed alot but according to the model, the storm starts in about 48 hours. Arnt we in the GFS wheelhouse? its a pretty damn good model out to 60 right?

[Wonderdog]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

So about 24 hours or so of precip falling, not too shabby.

[chris87]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

BEdvMclCIAERqrW.png large.png

 

when i see that i don't mind throwing logic right out the window..

[stormtracker]

Every model run from here on out is going to be nerve wrecking.   I hate it.  Can't we just get it on now.

[clskinsfan]

GFS stole an inch of my NAM qpf ...Seriously though we all would take this in a heartbeat. 12+ for just about everyone in this subforum.

[Ian]

Every model run from here on out is going to be nerve wrecking.   I hate it.  Can't we just get it on now.

softball

[SeminoleSullivan]

For those gunning down the GFS (and I've seen it a bit) as well as those gunning down the 18z - it's important to remember that it's not a regurgitated offshoot of data. It's not an 'off run'

 

Beyond that - If you look at the 0z GFS from last night, and the 6z from this morning - then add 12 hours and look at the current radar (obviously subtracting the obligatory 5 hours) - the GFS is outperforming the Euro, and quite well I might add.

 

The Euro may appear to have a better handle on the confluence, but the GFS seems to have a better grasp on the system from a synoptic standpoint.  Now, I'm not going to shoot my mouth off and say to trust the clown maps, that'd be dumb.

 

What I will say is to USE those maps as a concept of how tight the gradient may be. I'm still thinking the intensification happens faster than the Euro, but a touch slower than the GFS. I'm not giving the GFS all my lovin' but it certainly deserves some respect for how its been handled.

 

Don't root for each model run, take some initiative and gloss over what the surface and current 850s were modeled to be, and you be the judge.

 

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! lol

[swimmatte]

I am guessing this is DCA?

 

Sorry, yes.....

[andyhb]

My lord that GFS run is filthy, the 700 mb UVV's are off the charts as the thing bombs near the Del Marva.

[yoda]

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth066.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth072.gif

[PhineasC]

GFS gets bashed alot but according to the model, the storm starts in about 48 hours. Arnt we in the GFS wheelhouse? its a pretty damn good model out to 60 right?

I love when you make these posts trying to convince yourself to believe.

[swimmatte]

BWI:

 

 

WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.2    -2.4    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.08         WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.1    -3.9    0.59         WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.0    -4.4    0.67         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.7    -4.9    0.33     

[nw baltimore wx]

For those gunning down the GFS (and I've seen it a bit) as well as those gunning down the 18z - it's important to remember that it's not a regurgitated offshoot of data. It's not an 'off run'

 

Beyond that - If you look at the 0z GFS from last night, and the 6z from this morning - then add 12 hours and look at the current radar (obviously subtracting the obligatory 5 hours) - the GFS is outperforming the Euro, and quite well I might add.

 

The Euro may appear to have a better handle on the confluence, but the GFS seems to have a better grasp on the system from a synoptic standpoint.  Now, I'm not going to shoot my mouth off and say to trust the clown maps, that'd be dumb.

 

What I will say is to USE those maps as a concept of how tight the gradient may be. I'm still thinking the intensification happens faster than the Euro, but a touch slower than the GFS. I'm not giving the GFS all my lovin' but it certainly deserves some respect for how its been handled.

 

Don't root for each model run, take some initiative and gloss over what the surface and current 850s were modeled to be, and you be the judge.

 

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! lol

 

Where have you been?

 

Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote.

[Ronnie]

I really like the nam and gfs but honestly feeling nervous about the euro's state of mind on things

[Fodie77]

GFS stole an inch of my NAM qpf ...Seriously though we all would take this in a heartbeat. 12+ for just about everyone in this subforum.

 

Haha, this is slowly becoming a train wreck for RIC and central VA, but good luck to you nonetheless. Being from the Valley myself I'll always root for you guys.

[weathercoins]

Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside.

 

I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package

[PhineasC]

So about 24 hours or so of precip falling, not too shabby.

Yes, GFS says this could be a classic with some wind, long duration, and maybe some TSSN if we play our cards right. The real story will be the outages and tree damage as this will be cement.

[andyhb]

Yes, GFS says this could be a classic with some wind, long duration, and maybe some TSSN if we play our cards right. The real story will be the outages and tree damage as this will be cement.

 

I have strong suspicions that this GFS run would be a prolific TSSN producer.

 

At 72 hrs, it has winds at 925 mb ripping at 60-70 kts...

 

[NOVAForecaster]

[samdman95]

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth066.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth072.gif

clown maps are silly, but if you're going to use them, use the ones that show the full extent of the snow, rather than during the storm.  16" bullseye over DC

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth084.gif

[Ger]

All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches?

[Ji]

if the 00z gfs shows this again...i believe the euro will respond. The 00z run is where things could really start charging either way

[Deck Pic]

Probably still +SN until around 3pm or so

 

[Ian]

closeup. file saving time has commenced.

 

[Bari]

Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that.