yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OP GFS slightly north of the mean but not by much...very much in sync at this point with mean and individual members 72 panel of GEFS bullseye DC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All but in the bag.. Of course I'm out of town and due back on Wednesday night. Doubt that happens but at least I'll be stranded in New Orleans. Enjoy ****ers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 18z GEFS came a bit more realistic compared to the 12z GEFS for Philly/NYC, then again 18z GEFS puts DC right in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The thing that jumps out to me between this mornings GFS run and this evenings is the drop in pressure (and winds). This thing is really bombing out - what is the potential that temps drop even further than we worried about earlier today (e.g., upper 20s rather than lower 30s) thus increasing our ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Didn't 1/26/11 happen very quickly? I seem to remember that being a fast mover. I like your high end of 6-10, but with that last GFS run, I'd say 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The thing that jumps out to me between this mornings GFS run and this evenings is the drop in pressure (and winds). This thing is really bombing out - what is the potential that temps drop even further than we worried about earlier today (e.g., upper 20s rather than lower 30s) thus increasing our ratios? I'm no Met, but I'd say that's pretty much impossible with no real CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The slightly drier 18z look more realistic to me, i'm not sure but that 12z looked a little bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Our local NWS office seems to think so ...STRONG NLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WED AFTN AND NGT. POWER OUTAGES WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN AREASTHAT RECEIVE HVY WET SNOW. Pepco FTL!!! Seriously though, this concern has been in the back of my mind with this storm if it shapes up as it looks now. Commutageddon had little wind but that heavy, wet snow caused wide-spread outages. My power was out for 2 days, and I felt lucky. Some people were out for a week. I can only imagine what strong winds would add. Now, maybe we'll have a bit less of a problem since the derecho on June 30 pretty well took out a lot of weak/rotting trees and Pepco actually did some pruning and the like after bad publicity (well deserved). We didn't lose power during Sandy, which seemed amazing, but maybe it was true that the derecho actually helped things out in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS gets bashed alot but according to the model, the storm starts in about 48 hours. Arnt we in the GFS wheelhouse? its a pretty damn good model out to 60 right? Outside of the EC the first to note a north trend 120-144 hrs out, the GFS/GEFS have led the charge here. Could be a feather in the cap for the Global Forecast System, which overall has done well this winter from a verification standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 our trees have been so pruned and battered recently im not sure im that worried about massive outages.. but maybe im not thinking about it right. i don't think there were tons jan 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 our trees have been so pruned and battered recently im not sure im that worried about massive outages.. but maybe im not thinking about it right. i don't think there were tons jan 2011? I lost power for 4 days in Jan 2011 (that was the final straw for my dad getting a generator lol). There were a good amount of trees down in my neighborhood tho maybe it was fairly localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 our trees have been so pruned and battered recently im not sure im that worried about massive outages.. but maybe im not thinking about it right. i don't think there were tons jan 2011? Not as many outages as the derecho, but I thought it was pretty bad in the metro area. And yes, trees have been quite pruned in the last year or so, maybe that will actually help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Most deciduous trees are without leaves at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I lost power for 4 days in Jan 2011 (that was the final straw for my dad getting a generator lol). There were a good amount of trees down in my neighborhood tho maybe it was fairly localized. Now that I think about it I remember Kevin takin pics of downed trees in the suburbs. There were plenty snowmageddon too. It's not exactly the same as wind stress so maybe im overestimating our nature made preparedness with quite a few in the last year. At least it's been cold so leaves aren't popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Didn't 1/26/11 happen very quickly? I seem to remember that being a fast mover. I like your high end of 6-10, but with that last GFS run, I'd say 10-14 10-14 on the low end, right?? There's reasonable model agreement on 1.75"+ QPF at DCA. Even after adjusting for ratios, melting and a bit of rain, wouldn't the coastal plain get at least 12-15 inches (at a minimum) on 1.75" liquid?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Most deciduous trees are without leaves at this time. There were huge outages during Feb 2010 and Jan 2011 (less so during 2011). Leaves make it way worse but it doesn't eliminate the threat for a fairly widespread power outage incident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now that I think about it I remember Kevin takin pics of downed trees in the suburbs. There were plenty snowmageddon too. It's not exactly the same as wind stress so maybe im overestimating our nature made preparedness with quite a few in the last year. We have some pine trees around here that got shredded from Snowmageddon and especially Commutageddon. Surprised they're still standing. There were also some crepe myrtles that got split apart during Jan. 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Derecho and Sandy took down a lot of trees that were weak, so I'm guessing downed trees won't be as bad as it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 10-14 on the low end, right?? There's reasonable model agreement on 1.75"+ QPF at DCA. Even after adjusting for ratios, melting and a bit of rain, wouldn't the coastal plain get at least 12-15 inches (at a minimum) on 1.75" liquid?? I'm sure someone can find what liquid equivalent precip fell in DC on 1/26/11. I remember similar NAM/GFS runs before that storm to what we are looking at now (blues and purples). We finished with around 6 inches in NW. I think 10-14 inches is a big number. If I was forecasting from just the GFS I'd go 5-10 inches in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 10-14 on the low end, right?? There's reasonable model agreement on 1.75"+ QPF at DCA. Even after adjusting for ratios, melting and a bit of rain, wouldn't the coastal plain get at least 12-15 inches (at a minimum) on 1.75" liquid??I was using the 2.22" from the info posted earlier, then using a 5-1 low-end ratio and 7-1 high-end.Edit: 2.2 inches from Swimmatte's post earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 our trees have been so pruned and battered recently im not sure im that worried about massive outages.. but maybe im not thinking about it right. i don't think there were tons jan 2011? Jan 2011 was tough on the trees. We had 14 inches here and many of the cypresses folks use to line their property were wrecked. I don't think that one had much wind, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Almost split half and half now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Most mets agree that a fair amount of mixing will occur. Although I realize that people are talking mostly about the 18z models it seems that to say that what we get will be definitively all snow is a little misguided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Jan 2011 was tough on the trees. We had 14 inches here and many of the cypresses folks use to line their property were wrecked. I don't think that one had much wind, though. That's my worry. I've got three dozen around my back hundredth. But I keep them trimmed back pretty good, so bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Split half and half how? Bullseyes to misses? Almost split half and half now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now that I think about it I remember Kevin takin pics of downed trees in the suburbs. There were plenty snowmageddon too. It's not exactly the same as wind stress so maybe im overestimating our nature made preparedness with quite a few in the last year. At least it's been cold so leaves aren't popping. Yeah, what gets you are the pines that end up mega-drooping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Most mets agree that a fair amount of mixing will occur. Although I realize that people are talking mostly about the 18z models it seems that to say that what we get will be definitively all snow is a little misguided. Eh, too weak on the GFS for mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Split half and half how? Bullseyes to misses? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Jan 2011 was tough on the trees. We had 14 inches here and many of the cypresses folks use to line their property were wrecked. I don't think that one had much wind, though. It had pretty strong wind for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18Z NAM is just about all snow at BWI and GFS is, unlike 12Z runs we keep getting wetter and colder I'm trying to remember what was my cause of death yesterday because this doesn't seem real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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