winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't think this makes any sense. True, I just checked and the soundings don't show sleet. We're not done modeling this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, I'm not seeing sleet-- maybe parts of SW VA before the coastal-- some model data inferred that. i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i thought that was a forecast for the storm at first. looks pretty good except maybe way out west. What is wrong with 100+ falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is wrong with 100+ falling? better method is probably to expect whatever you need to get to climo winter avg. we'll rename the storm later once that aspect is apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah--tho i am not sure they are all the same (i guess at least the initial conditions are?). the ones i see on a pay site generally seem to line up with soundings so i still use them as a general idea of where things are and the bullseye etc. as far as taking numbers verbatim or modified.. not sure there is much value there but still fun. you're right they aren't the same...i've seen ones based on direct model output of "snow" or "snow depth", also you can compute "snowfall" from a post-processing sense where you compute how much of the QPF is snow based on the soundings (also taking into account some static snow-to-liquid ratio or trying to estimate from the sounding data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. I'm thinking that when we get into the cold side/wrap around, rain will mix with sleet before mixing with and turning back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. Maybe he's assuming when it occludes that warm wrap around works in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 better method is probably to expect whatever you need to get to climo winter avg. we'll rename the storm later once that aspect is apparent. Well, I'd need 15 to get to 27 average, but not sure I'd want 15 if its a 5-7 to 1 snow.....trees, trees, trees! A good 6-10 would thrill me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS looks really weak through hr. 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS holds. not only holds...it bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS actually came north just a smidge vs 12z with the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 :o I like these posts from you. I'm stuck at 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS phases some more energy this run again and comes north. .75-1.00" qpf in 6hrs in DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 not only holds...it bombs slight shift in orientation of the ULL....saw the same thing in the NAM...starts a bit south in the 0-36hr range, then takes on a slight negative tilt as it approaches the coast...really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 bullseyed on the gfs again wooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Holy crap. Just saw the later panels. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DC FTMFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS looks really weak through hr. 63. Good analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, I'd need 15 to get to 27 average, but not sure I'd want 15 if its a 5-7 to 1 snow.....trees, trees, trees! A good 6-10 would thrill me at this point. I'm getting that feeling I get when a potential Big one is lurking. 6-10 isn't enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DC FTMFW NAM-esque QPF. What a bulls-eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS looks really weak through hr. 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Excellent placement of the h5 at 69 and 72... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 DC FTMFW The bullseye is literally DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM-esque QPF. What a bulls-eye. ~2.25 for DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 sick run.. 18" for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Crushed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS looks really weak through hr. 63. You posted this about a NAM run today too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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