Ronnie Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I really like the nam and gfs but honestly feeling nervous about the euro's state of mind on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS stole an inch of my NAM qpf ...Seriously though we all would take this in a heartbeat. 12+ for just about everyone in this subforum. Haha, this is slowly becoming a train wreck for RIC and central VA, but good luck to you nonetheless. Being from the Valley myself I'll always root for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside. I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So about 24 hours or so of precip falling, not too shabby. Yes, GFS says this could be a classic with some wind, long duration, and maybe some TSSN if we play our cards right. The real story will be the outages and tree damage as this will be cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes, GFS says this could be a classic with some wind, long duration, and maybe some TSSN if we play our cards right. The real story will be the outages and tree damage as this will be cement. I have strong suspicions that this GFS run would be a prolific TSSN producer. At 72 hrs, it has winds at 925 mb ripping at 60-70 kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth066.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth072.gif clown maps are silly, but if you're going to use them, use the ones that show the full extent of the snow, rather than during the storm. 16" bullseye over DC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 if the 00z gfs shows this again...i believe the euro will respond. The 00z run is where things could really start charging either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 closeup. file saving time has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All that QPF and we only get 12-16 inches? I think it's because the first bit is rain, and then the ratios are very wet, please someone correct me if that's wrong. Either way.. Literal DC bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that. With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package "A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours." That'd be right on the cusp. I think you'll start seeing them show up after the 12z suite for southern parts of the CWA. Below: Yes, the radar is about an hour ahead...but I've circled a few areas (Intellicast also doesn't exactly snag Canada, either) Also note the 850 temps. Granted, this is only 15 hours out -> but these are the things that I'm looking at. That being said - I think Philadelphia is still very much in the game - I'm not sold on the New England idea yet, I'm still favoring the Euro's tougher ballgame with the confluence by a hair. But pattern recognition may well come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good lol... as a met student don't hate me for hearing exactly what i wanted to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that. Probably b/c drifting would be minimal IMO, Ratios too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where have you been? Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote. Fighting with physics. If I had my druthers, I'd say you were in the sweet spot. West of 270, north of 70 is where my money is at the moment. But your area isn't far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Probably b/c drifting would be minimal IMO, Ratios too low. Bingo. It'd be like trying to blow a wet towel around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 for us at low elevation I'd probably take 70% of QPF since it is obscene and then use 7:1 or 8:1 ratios...If I was forecasting off the 18z GFS, I'd probably go 10-14" for DCA/Cap Hill and 15-20" for Rockville etc... I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There were actually big changes on this run. SNE gets hit with precip Storm bombs offshore to 984mb Storm is slower to exit. These all make sense given that there is a strong closed H5 low. It was the quick moving 1002mb solutions that had me scratching my head. This is not a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bingo. It'd be like trying to blow a wet towel around. Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and 8 to 16 for NW burbs. When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low. Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010, With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues. Always remember - Forecasting has always been stupid with numbers. 20% chance of rain? 20% of the area gets it/ 20% chance it falls over the whole area, part of the area? Same goes for snow. Those of us who measure with boards/gauges might find that DC Proper could well have a foot of snow. But what sticks and what falls...two different animals. That's where physics becomes fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Our local NWS office seems to think so ...STRONG NLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WED AFTN AND NGT. POWER OUTAGES WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN AREASTHAT RECEIVE HVY WET SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so..... Oh absolutely, I was referencing more of the drifting aspect. This stuff is going to compact too. So the totals will be dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Oh absolutely, I was referencing more of the drifting aspect. This stuff is going to compact too. So the totals will be dubious. Yes, those that measure with boards place two side by side, clean one each 6 hour period, don't touch the other- difference will likely be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up. And apparently we're not far off from this either... I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up. And apparently we're not far off from this either... lol those snow shower later on wednesday turned out to be much better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 BWI: WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.2 -2.4 0.08 WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.2 0.08 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.1 -3.9 0.59 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.0 -4.4 0.67 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.7 -4.9 0.33 What about IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What about IAD Thought I posted but...... WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.2 -2.7 0.08 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.7 -2.4 0.12 WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.6 -3.9 0.64 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.7 -4.7 0.63 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -5.2 0.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2013/post-4284-0-45336000-1362350334.png I found this enlightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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