ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GGEM first had this system way north, like Chicago north. Im talking 2 days ago. NYC-SNE. It never showed a CHI solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 and if you're going to do that, at least don't feel the need to post a pbp Meanie. Ok..let's move on from the NAM...the air is thick with tension as we await the GFS. Will it GFS us? Will it cause premature congratulations. Yes, I went there. See it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Meanie. Ok..let's move on from the NAM...the air is thick with tension as we await the GFS. Will it GFS us? Will it cause premature congratulations. Yes, I went there. See it? i was just messing...for everyone who makes fun of those who look at the 84 hr NAM is a person who looks at it and just don't say anything about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Since it is the 18Z GFS it will either show a totally suppressed solution or the biggest storm of all time. Either way it will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Meanie. Ok..let's move on from the NAM...the air is thick with tension as we await the GFS. Will it GFS us? Will it cause premature congratulations. Yes, I went there. See it? the thing is, it's not like the NAM is that far off with the general placement of the main features vs. reliable med range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 it was the 18z that previewed the crap runs last night,.maybe it will preview better runs this time around. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Comparison of the 12z runs courtesy of Meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Im talking 2 days ago. NYC-SNE. It never showed a CHI solution. Yes it did. There's even commentary on its completely different solution in the other thread. As for the NAM, relevant or not, it sure looks like it's about to explode on those 84 hour panels. And, as Mitch noted, it lines up very well with the SREFS. Neither may be useful, but it's an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 maybe tho it's not that different then what we saw on like feb 5-6 just offshore. I buy the general idea just not that fast or extreme. I like the euro depiction better then the gfs as the storm gets going but I've seen this type of look where the storm hits the confluence and gets shunted southeast and it usually happens further east then where they put it more then 48 hours out. 2 examples just from 3 years ago. Both the dec and feb storms had a sharp cutoff just north of Baltimore until 36 hours out when in reality the cutoff was just north of Philly. In my experience and from past events its very rare that the cutoff in a major 2"+ qpf storm ends up there. Usually they either get supressed south of dc or the wall of confluence ends up near Philly or NYC. I've never seen a system get heavy snow into sw pa then miss Baltimore to the south. It can happen but I'm banking against it. This post is mostly for the bwi north and east people. Phin can probably attest to this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I just wish this could be right http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Don't assume it's not. Not because the nam shows it but because how many times have we been screwed by an h5 low being further north from 100 hours out. Maybe this time we get to cash in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Don't assume it's not. Not because the nam shows it but because how many times have we been screwed by an h5 low being further north from 100 hours out. Maybe this time we get to cash in on that. I've said at least 3 times in the past few days, these ns h5 lows this year have always ended up further north. You're right, maybe this time it helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I've said at least 3 times in the past few days, these ns h5 lows this year have always ended up further north. You're right, maybe this time it helps us. Yes but hopefully not too far north...the block should keep it in check but I have become paranoid about h5 N trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Since it is the 18Z GFS it will either show a totally suppressed solution or the biggest storm of all time. Either way it will be wrong. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I buy the general idea just not that fast or extreme. I like the euro depiction better then the gfs as the storm gets going but I've seen this type of look where the storm hits the confluence and gets shunted southeast and it usually happens further east then where they put it more then 48 hours out. 2 examples just from 3 years ago. Both the dec and feb storms had a sharp cutoff just north of Baltimore until 36 hours out when in reality the cutoff was just north of Philly. In my experience and from past events its very rare that the cutoff in a major 2"+ qpf storm ends up there. Usually they either get supressed south of dc or the wall of confluence ends up near Philly or NYC. I've never seen a system get heavy snow into sw pa then miss Baltimore to the south. It can happen but I'm banking against it. This post is mostly for the bwi north and east people. Phin can probably attest to this also. not agreeing or disagreeing, but with this becoming more the bowling ball vs. phase idea, the models are suggesting that there is initially slp north of the Ohio River which then dies and slp redevelops in VA as it hits the block so if that is accurate, I could see a weakening of the precip creating a dead zone before the VA low goes to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z DGEX is ridiculous at 90 to 102 because of the h5 track and SLP placement/movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DGEX is ridiculous fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure of the accuracy of the GGEM ENS but it sure is nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure of the accuracy of the GGEM ENS but it sure is nice to look at Probably better than the GGEM itself - though we probably are slowly drawing into the period when longer range ensembles become less useful. Maybe not quite yet, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ensemble QPF info? Low positioning is ~75mi NE of the Op at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ensemble QPF info? Low positioning is ~75mi NE of the Op at 96hrs. I think Ian said 1 inch DC and. 75 Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 fyp. co sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DT says Euro Ens.....1-2 feet for the entire Shenendoah Valley. Roanoake to Winchester. That would be a truly historic storm for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 With this system moving from west to east, should we be concerned about any ocean flow from the east with respect to temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DT says Euro Ens.....1-2 feet for the entire Shenendoah Valley. Roanoake to Winchester. That would be a truly historic storm for VA. he's exaggerating. it's mostly 8-12" with a small 12-18" bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Dont see too much diff on h5 level at 57 on 18z GFS when comparing it to 12z GFS at 63 except that the block is a bit further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 he's exaggerating. it's mostly 8-12" with a small 12-18" bullseye. DT exaggerate?!?!? Looks like we got some interaction going on at 75 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Closed 3 contour h5 low in N TN/S KY at 84 with a bit more ridging out ahead of it when compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 And looks like the block has moved quicker/a bit more further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Whether the precip max moves north or not. The block is definitely further out of the way. I'll take that as another indication a south trend isn't anything to worry about if nothing else. Edit: tracker is a highly trained ninja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Destroyed whoop there it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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