The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope

[Ian]

I am pretty sure that would break all time record for the month of march... destroy them in fact... 93 was like 10-12 for the major cities.. and I think something back in the forties was about the same.. if the GFS or NAM verified... it would be something you only see in once in a century.. for the March at least.

 

that's prob high side but would be widespread foot+. still breaking a lot of records including in dc.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is a beaut there.

[Amped]

GFS keeps it's poker face.

[Heisy]

This is the "perfect" run...it puts the energy in the right area. Like others have said we don't want the bowling ball to just glide and meander SE ala Euro, we want the highest vorticity in the NE quadrant so it kind of forces the ULL NE. 

 

Maybe GFS will score a coup like 2010 

[NOVAForecaster]

[swimmatte]

BOOM!

WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.9 -2.1 0.08

WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.4 -1.1 0.13

WED 12Z 06-MAR 0.8 -3.5 0.72

WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.9 -4.5 0.88

THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -5.0 0.41

[Ger]

Now I am concerned that the shift north should stop now but won't. Please some met tell me such a shift is unlikely given the setup.

[stormtracker]

I kinda hate this run, because it probably can't get any better for us.  It set the bar too high.

[Ian]

Now I am concerned that the shift north should stop now but won't. Please some met tell me such a shift is unlikely given the setup.

This is where the euro comes in handy with a blend. .

I think we are close to locking in..

[Scuddz]

I kinda hate this run, because it probably can't get any better for us.  It set the bar to high.

 

 

It's only gotta hold serve for another 7-8 runs...

[Ger]

This is where the euro comes in handy with a blend. .

I think we are close to locking in..

Perfect reasoning. and in that case, the Euro is still my King

[87storms]

Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside.

[Ian]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

[yoda]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

 

I am guessing this is DCA?

[thunderman]

Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside.

I would suspect we could have watches as early as tomorrow morning.

[PDIII]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

Well that is right in the middle of the day... but with those rates.. there should be accumulating snow.. it would be nice to watch it from my office window... seems like all of the little crap[y events we have had over the last few years have been at night... I am thinking we could score atleast 4 inch, 5 inch, 2 inch from that.

[stormtracker]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

BEdvMclCIAERqrW.png large.png

 

Where are the cleaner ones?

[Ji]

GFS gets bashed alot but according to the model, the storm starts in about 48 hours. Arnt we in the GFS wheelhouse? its a pretty damn good model out to 60 right?

[Wonderdog]

BOOM!WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.9    -2.1    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.4    -1.1    0.13        WED 12Z 06-MAR   0.8    -3.5    0.72         WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.9    -4.5    0.88         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.4    -5.0    0.41         

So about 24 hours or so of precip falling, not too shabby.

[chris87]

whatever if you dont like snow maps

 

BEdvMclCIAERqrW.png large.png

 

when i see that i don't mind throwing logic right out the window..

[stormtracker]

Every model run from here on out is going to be nerve wrecking.   I hate it.  Can't we just get it on now.

[clskinsfan]

GFS stole an inch of my NAM qpf ...Seriously though we all would take this in a heartbeat. 12+ for just about everyone in this subforum.

[Ian]

Every model run from here on out is going to be nerve wrecking.   I hate it.  Can't we just get it on now.

softball

[SeminoleSullivan]

For those gunning down the GFS (and I've seen it a bit) as well as those gunning down the 18z - it's important to remember that it's not a regurgitated offshoot of data. It's not an 'off run'

 

Beyond that - If you look at the 0z GFS from last night, and the 6z from this morning - then add 12 hours and look at the current radar (obviously subtracting the obligatory 5 hours) - the GFS is outperforming the Euro, and quite well I might add.

 

The Euro may appear to have a better handle on the confluence, but the GFS seems to have a better grasp on the system from a synoptic standpoint.  Now, I'm not going to shoot my mouth off and say to trust the clown maps, that'd be dumb.

 

What I will say is to USE those maps as a concept of how tight the gradient may be. I'm still thinking the intensification happens faster than the Euro, but a touch slower than the GFS. I'm not giving the GFS all my lovin' but it certainly deserves some respect for how its been handled.

 

Don't root for each model run, take some initiative and gloss over what the surface and current 850s were modeled to be, and you be the judge.

 

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! lol

[swimmatte]

I am guessing this is DCA?

 

Sorry, yes.....

[andyhb]

My lord that GFS run is filthy, the 700 mb UVV's are off the charts as the thing bombs near the Del Marva.

[yoda]

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth066.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth072.gif

[PhineasC]

GFS gets bashed alot but according to the model, the storm starts in about 48 hours. Arnt we in the GFS wheelhouse? its a pretty damn good model out to 60 right?

I love when you make these posts trying to convince yourself to believe.

[swimmatte]

BWI:

 

 

WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.2    -2.4    0.08         WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.2    0.08         WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.1    -3.9    0.59         WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.0    -4.4    0.67         THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.7    -4.9    0.33     

[nw baltimore wx]

For those gunning down the GFS (and I've seen it a bit) as well as those gunning down the 18z - it's important to remember that it's not a regurgitated offshoot of data. It's not an 'off run'

 

Beyond that - If you look at the 0z GFS from last night, and the 6z from this morning - then add 12 hours and look at the current radar (obviously subtracting the obligatory 5 hours) - the GFS is outperforming the Euro, and quite well I might add.

 

The Euro may appear to have a better handle on the confluence, but the GFS seems to have a better grasp on the system from a synoptic standpoint.  Now, I'm not going to shoot my mouth off and say to trust the clown maps, that'd be dumb.

 

What I will say is to USE those maps as a concept of how tight the gradient may be. I'm still thinking the intensification happens faster than the Euro, but a touch slower than the GFS. I'm not giving the GFS all my lovin' but it certainly deserves some respect for how its been handled.

 

Don't root for each model run, take some initiative and gloss over what the surface and current 850s were modeled to be, and you be the judge.

 

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! lol

 

Where have you been?

 

Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote.