gymengineer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nasty top 3 storms from 12z GFS today.. third was a huge qpf'er at DC 12zcips.jpg 3/14/91 was a heart-breaker. We had either a WSWatch or warning up for 8+" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA was the most south of models for days. Finally came north today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eric Horst from Millersville really going bold. What is so bold about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is so bold about it? Heavy snow likely for basically all of MD and into southern PA and almost Philly. Pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is so bold about it? "Heavy Snow Likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The only thing that looks probable is the rather steep gradient in precip from southwest to northeast with this storm. The details are for those with strong hearts. It's going to be a bumpy ride for many in this forum over the next 3-4 days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Has anyone seen a sleet sounding modeled for this storm? I have not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 3/14/91 was a heart-breaker. We had either a WSWatch or warning up for 8+" of snow. That one is almost never brought up. Interesting that you you remember it. I can only vaguely recall what happened. I was a senior in high school so that was probably the only time in my whole life that the potential for snow didn't rule my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 "Heavy Snow Likely" Doesn't every single model now print out some heavy snow for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Has anyone seen a sleet sounding modeled for this storm? I have not. I've been waiting for someone uninformed to ask about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think the biggest forecast challenge will be with the amounts east of I-95, especially southern MD. We typically see this terrain-dependent gradient when BL issues are present (especially early). However, I've seen the CCB/deformation axis and deepening TROWAL crank up wicked precipitation rates at the tail end, with this feature hanging on a little while longer over the eastern 'burbs while pivoting more N-S, to a point where those areas more than make up for the fact that they are lower in elevation when all is said and done. Elevated convection doesn't hurt matters either. Many of the analogs for this time of year, with a similar track (including the March '58 and '60 storms) do not have that sharp cutoff NE-E-SE of DC. Will be very interesting to see how this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Doesn't every single model now print out some heavy snow for the area? Not for the areas in South Central PA that he shaded in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some sleet makes sense simply because the storm may deepen just enough to bring long-fetch east winds all the way to the west of the Bay. The boundary layer freezing level has no reinforcing source of cold air. The surface low is going to be just a tiny bit too close to the big cities. I don't think this makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this forum does not include PA. the system, as currently modeled, is a hit for much of this forum. I am sorry, but my climo is much more similar to northern Maryland than to the rest of central PA. I am 10 miles from the M/D line. Why must people be so rigid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am sorry, but my climo is much more similar to northern Maryland than to the rest of central PA. I am 10 miles from the M/D line. Why must people be so rigid? There are folks in VA who do not have climate like the DC area that post here (because they are in our defined region)...subforums are around for a reason but this is a banter conversation anyway. If we go by climo only that defeats the purpose of subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't think this makes any sense. almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Such a nice consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Not sure I'm answering the correct question, but its relevant with respect to the gradient seen in a lot of the snow depth maps from the models, but i've noticed a large difference in "total snowfall" vs "total snow depth" which is being traced back to how the land surface model component of the model is handling melting (or lack of accumulation at the surface)....snow physics in LSMs are difficult to parameterize, and as someone who works with them all the time, i'm not a particularly big fan of how the Noah LSM handles snow physics (which is the operational land surface component in the NAM/GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Seems like it is pretty much rain or snow. Upper levels are plenty cold on all of the models. In fact, with these new NAM/GFS depictions the 850s crash super hard as the coastal ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sure would be nice to see the Euro jump on the big storm bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Even here to a degree. In the past I have been just far enough N+W to be okay but I do tend to get a bit of mixing during bigger events. Doesn't impact my final total THAT much usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure I'm answering the correct question, but its relevant with respect to the gradient seen in a lot of the snow depth maps from the models, but i've noticed a large difference in "total snowfall" vs "total snow depth" which is being traced back to how the land surface model component of the model is handling melting (or lack of accumulation at the surface)....snow physics in LSMs are difficult to parameterize, and as someone who works with them all the time, i'm not a particularly big fan of how the Noah LSM handles snow physics (which is the operational land surface component in the NAM/GFS). thanks.. i think that's probably what i was interested in. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. AvgSFMap_1208_2.jpg The fall line basically runs right along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thanks.. i think that's probably what i was interested in. maybe. well i know i don't have to convince most of the perils of "clown" maps...but just the issues with snow physics should be enough to leave you with no faith (and that's not even addressing how snow liquid equivalent is handled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. AvgSFMap_1208_2.jpg i thought that was a forecast for the storm at first. looks pretty good except maybe way out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, I'm not seeing sleet-- maybe parts of SW VA before the coastal-- some model data inferred that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 well i know i don't have to convince most of the perils of "clown" maps...but just the issues with snow physics should be enough to leave you with no faith (and that's not even addressing how snow liquid equivalent is handled). yeah--tho i am not sure they are all the same (i guess at least the initial conditions are?). the ones i see on a pay site generally seem to line up with soundings so i still use them as a general idea of where things are and the bullseye etc. as far as taking numbers verbatim or modified.. not sure there is much value there but still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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