BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 still going strong on the last frame at hr 84! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This run is very close to the SREF Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where the heaviest precip sets up really relies on where the highest energy sets up that rotates around the ULL. Thats why it will be tough to forecast this storm even around 48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 lol still going at 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Mega copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM lol...~2.6" for JI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sick run. Good thing Yoda was wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We don't mind clown map postings, but please use the banter thread for that as no one takes them seriously. eh, i think they are still useful if not taken verbatim. tho at least look at 84 for the gradient guys., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would love to see Bufkit for BWI. sharp cutoff on snow shield of the clown map of the NAM East of DC. Hope AA co doesnt get the screw job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sick run. Good thing Yoda was wrong again. just an early part of the run wobble, but everyone's nerves are shot I think but the slowing down does give it a chance to get even bigger, that's the good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Why does the NAM sim radar always seems north of the op run precip shield? QPF panels are for the 3 or 6 hr (depends on your source) BEFORE the valid time. Sim radar is the radar snapshot AT the valid time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 F'ing NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sick run. Good thing Yoda was wrong again. It started out south on the h5 maps -- you can check them yourself... then as one of the mets said above it corrected north due to the weak blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Verbatim, that would be 20-30 inches for someone in northern Shenandoah Valley. Likely overdone, but 1-2 feet is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh, i think they are still useful if not taken verbatim. tho at least look at 84 for the gradient guys., I don't believe those clown maps because they seem to default to rain of the numerous products that run programs to reflect snow, those were far more conservative at BWI with the 12z run than any other one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is useless...i dont care if it showed 40 feet. Lets wait till its wheelhouse before getting excited. Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL. WInchester bullseye at 2.72....marginal temps say 20-24 inches....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would love to see Bufkit for BWI. sharp cutoff on snow shield of the clown map of the NAM East of DC. Hope AA co doesnt get the screw job? I would love to see a qpf comparison to 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it was in this time frame that the 18z NAM was first to nail the 12/19/09 bliz just sayin' of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is useless...i dont care if it showed 40 feet. Lets wait till its wheelhouse before getting excited. Wednesday afternoon By then we'll all be using the RAP. The NAM is pretty ridiculous. Probably up to the typical too much precip thing. Still a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Max daily March snowfalls IAD 13.9 3/13/93 DCA 11.5 3/29/42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... Hopefully to the GFS which is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... idk, since yesterday, GFS has, for the most part, been supporting the NAM an hour after the NAM run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nasty top 3 storms from 12z GFS today.. third was a huge qpf'er at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eric Horst from Millersville really going bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Look, we all know the NAM's QPF is ridiculous. And normally, it could be discounted...but it's not like its radically differently synoptic wise. It's in line with the GFS (track/intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fairly solid run to run consistency for 70 hrs out. Even as an outlier, Euro is still a 6" snowstorm for DC metro. CCB on GFS and NAM stellar. Nice end of season clocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.