yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM does not look that much south, looks like it was just slower. That's why we should probably wait before declaring anything. It still could end up south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And the 15Z SREFs are in... Mean went down at IAD about an inch, but the lower members have moved up and the higher members have moved down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM does not look that much south, looks like it was just slower. thru 57, I'd agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 It did get wetter, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. If we get less than 24", I'll be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We are going to be NAM'd again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It did get wetter, that's for sure. a product of slowing down I would suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. Looks like it still is going to be big to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM at 66 is beautiful. super juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so Eh not really. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If we get less than 24", I'll be upset. Same but we'll deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We are going to be NAM'd again After a decade of posting on weather forums, you still manage to post the same lousy analysis time and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Mega NAM'ing in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 h5 is tilting at 69 in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 69 Shenandoah valley already at 1.25....Burried on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z NAM started off south about 50 miles with the h5 vort, but then corrected farther north with a little weaker blocking up north. Ended up being almost identical to 12z as it approaches NOVA. If it had started 50 miles north like the 12z, then the final solution may have been farther north with the surface low. Regardless, it's juicier than 12z and that CCB is pretty gnarly for DC/Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 sim rad wow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL. The NAM is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Why does the NAM sim radar always seems north of the op run precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just buried by the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This run is better for everyone. Longer duration down here, too. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 looks stalled at 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Why does the NAM sim radar always seems north of the op run precip shield? Remember that the precip maps are for the previous period (6 hours usually). So sim radar is "live" at that moment on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If only the NAM were the Euro I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OMG nam just stalls over Norfoolk for 8 hours. 2.25 into Winchester...Unreal run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 sim rad wow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif I was just going to comment on that. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nice high pressure appearing to our north at 75 hrs (probably a little sooner actually) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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