Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:23 PM, winterymix said: Some sleet makes sense simply because the storm may deepen just enough to bring long-fetch east winds all the way to the west of the Bay. The boundary layer freezing level has no reinforcing source of cold air. The surface low is going to be just a tiny bit too close to the big cities. I don't think this makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:25 PM, wxtrix said: this forum does not include PA. the system, as currently modeled, is a hit for much of this forum. I am sorry, but my climo is much more similar to northern Maryland than to the rest of central PA. I am 10 miles from the M/D line. Why must people be so rigid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:28 PM, anotherman said: I am sorry, but my climo is much more similar to northern Maryland than to the rest of central PA. I am 10 miles from the M/D line. Why must people be so rigid? There are folks in VA who do not have climate like the DC area that post here (because they are in our defined region)...subforums are around for a reason but this is a banter conversation anyway. If we go by climo only that defeats the purpose of subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:24 PM, PhineasC said: I don't think this makes any sense. almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:26 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Such a nice consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:23 PM, Ian said: How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Not sure I'm answering the correct question, but its relevant with respect to the gradient seen in a lot of the snow depth maps from the models, but i've noticed a large difference in "total snowfall" vs "total snow depth" which is being traced back to how the land surface model component of the model is handling melting (or lack of accumulation at the surface)....snow physics in LSMs are difficult to parameterize, and as someone who works with them all the time, i'm not a particularly big fan of how the Noah LSM handles snow physics (which is the operational land surface component in the NAM/GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:30 PM, Ian said: almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Seems like it is pretty much rain or snow. Upper levels are plenty cold on all of the models. In fact, with these new NAM/GFS depictions the 850s crash super hard as the coastal ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:26 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Sure would be nice to see the Euro jump on the big storm bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:23 PM, Ian said: How much if at all do models run to climo favoring NW? Or is it just all the temp profile? Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:30 PM, Ian said: almost all big storms mix to some degree at least in spots like around here. i haven't really looked at many soundings though. Even here to a degree. In the past I have been just far enough N+W to be okay but I do tend to get a bit of mixing during bigger events. Doesn't impact my final total THAT much usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:31 PM, chris87 said: Not sure I'm answering the correct question, but its relevant with respect to the gradient seen in a lot of the snow depth maps from the models, but i've noticed a large difference in "total snowfall" vs "total snow depth" which is being traced back to how the land surface model component of the model is handling melting (or lack of accumulation at the surface)....snow physics in LSMs are difficult to parameterize, and as someone who works with them all the time, i'm not a particularly big fan of how the Noah LSM handles snow physics (which is the operational land surface component in the NAM/GFS). thanks.. i think that's probably what i was interested in. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:33 PM, winterymix said: Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. AvgSFMap_1208_2.jpg The fall line basically runs right along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:34 PM, Ian said: thanks.. i think that's probably what i was interested in. maybe. well i know i don't have to convince most of the perils of "clown" maps...but just the issues with snow physics should be enough to leave you with no faith (and that's not even addressing how snow liquid equivalent is handled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:33 PM, winterymix said: Here is the recent snow climatology. The "Fall Line" shows up as an obvious diagonal. AvgSFMap_1208_2.jpg i thought that was a forecast for the storm at first. looks pretty good except maybe way out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, I'm not seeing sleet-- maybe parts of SW VA before the coastal-- some model data inferred that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:36 PM, chris87 said: well i know i don't have to convince most of the perils of "clown" maps...but just the issues with snow physics should be enough to leave you with no faith (and that's not even addressing how snow liquid equivalent is handled). yeah--tho i am not sure they are all the same (i guess at least the initial conditions are?). the ones i see on a pay site generally seem to line up with soundings so i still use them as a general idea of where things are and the bullseye etc. as far as taking numbers verbatim or modified.. not sure there is much value there but still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:24 PM, PhineasC said: I don't think this makes any sense. True, I just checked and the soundings don't show sleet. We're not done modeling this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:36 PM, Huffwx said: Yeah, I'm not seeing sleet-- maybe parts of SW VA before the coastal-- some model data inferred that. i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:36 PM, Ian said: i thought that was a forecast for the storm at first. looks pretty good except maybe way out west. What is wrong with 100+ falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:39 PM, wxdude64 said: What is wrong with 100+ falling? better method is probably to expect whatever you need to get to climo winter avg. we'll rename the storm later once that aspect is apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:38 PM, Ian said: yeah--tho i am not sure they are all the same (i guess at least the initial conditions are?). the ones i see on a pay site generally seem to line up with soundings so i still use them as a general idea of where things are and the bullseye etc. as far as taking numbers verbatim or modified.. not sure there is much value there but still fun. you're right they aren't the same...i've seen ones based on direct model output of "snow" or "snow depth", also you can compute "snowfall" from a post-processing sense where you compute how much of the QPF is snow based on the soundings (also taking into account some static snow-to-liquid ratio or trying to estimate from the sounding data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:39 PM, Ian said: i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. I'm thinking that when we get into the cold side/wrap around, rain will mix with sleet before mixing with and turning back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:39 PM, Ian said: i agree up here at least (only really looked at DC area soundings) it looks like it's either rain or snow.. just know a lot of storms mix, but profile isn't right imby at least. Maybe he's assuming when it occludes that warm wrap around works in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 9:41 PM, Ian said: better method is probably to expect whatever you need to get to climo winter avg. we'll rename the storm later once that aspect is apparent. Well, I'd need 15 to get to 27 average, but not sure I'd want 15 if its a 5-7 to 1 snow.....trees, trees, trees! A good 6-10 would thrill me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS looks really weak through hr. 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS actually came north just a smidge vs 12z with the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.