wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 F'ing NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sick run. Good thing Yoda was wrong again. It started out south on the h5 maps -- you can check them yourself... then as one of the mets said above it corrected north due to the weak blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Verbatim, that would be 20-30 inches for someone in northern Shenandoah Valley. Likely overdone, but 1-2 feet is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh, i think they are still useful if not taken verbatim. tho at least look at 84 for the gradient guys., I don't believe those clown maps because they seem to default to rain of the numerous products that run programs to reflect snow, those were far more conservative at BWI with the 12z run than any other one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is useless...i dont care if it showed 40 feet. Lets wait till its wheelhouse before getting excited. Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL. WInchester bullseye at 2.72....marginal temps say 20-24 inches....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would love to see Bufkit for BWI. sharp cutoff on snow shield of the clown map of the NAM East of DC. Hope AA co doesnt get the screw job? I would love to see a qpf comparison to 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it was in this time frame that the 18z NAM was first to nail the 12/19/09 bliz just sayin' of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is useless...i dont care if it showed 40 feet. Lets wait till its wheelhouse before getting excited. Wednesday afternoon By then we'll all be using the RAP. The NAM is pretty ridiculous. Probably up to the typical too much precip thing. Still a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Max daily March snowfalls IAD 13.9 3/13/93 DCA 11.5 3/29/42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... Hopefully to the GFS which is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM always sucumbs to one of the globals in the last 24 hours.... idk, since yesterday, GFS has, for the most part, been supporting the NAM an hour after the NAM run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nasty top 3 storms from 12z GFS today.. third was a huge qpf'er at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eric Horst from Millersville really going bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Look, we all know the NAM's QPF is ridiculous. And normally, it could be discounted...but it's not like its radically differently synoptic wise. It's in line with the GFS (track/intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fairly solid run to run consistency for 70 hrs out. Even as an outlier, Euro is still a 6" snowstorm for DC metro. CCB on GFS and NAM stellar. Nice end of season clocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nasty top 3 storms from 12z GFS today.. third was a huge qpf'er at DC 12zcips.jpg 3/14/91 was a heart-breaker. We had either a WSWatch or warning up for 8+" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA was the most south of models for days. Finally came north today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eric Horst from Millersville really going bold. What is so bold about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is so bold about it? Heavy snow likely for basically all of MD and into southern PA and almost Philly. Pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is so bold about it? "Heavy Snow Likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The only thing that looks probable is the rather steep gradient in precip from southwest to northeast with this storm. The details are for those with strong hearts. It's going to be a bumpy ride for many in this forum over the next 3-4 days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Has anyone seen a sleet sounding modeled for this storm? I have not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 3/14/91 was a heart-breaker. We had either a WSWatch or warning up for 8+" of snow. That one is almost never brought up. Interesting that you you remember it. I can only vaguely recall what happened. I was a senior in high school so that was probably the only time in my whole life that the potential for snow didn't rule my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 "Heavy Snow Likely" Doesn't every single model now print out some heavy snow for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Has anyone seen a sleet sounding modeled for this storm? I have not. I've been waiting for someone uninformed to ask about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think the biggest forecast challenge will be with the amounts east of I-95, especially southern MD. We typically see this terrain-dependent gradient when BL issues are present (especially early). However, I've seen the CCB/deformation axis and deepening TROWAL crank up wicked precipitation rates at the tail end, with this feature hanging on a little while longer over the eastern 'burbs while pivoting more N-S, to a point where those areas more than make up for the fact that they are lower in elevation when all is said and done. Elevated convection doesn't hurt matters either. Many of the analogs for this time of year, with a similar track (including the March '58 and '60 storms) do not have that sharp cutoff NE-E-SE of DC. Will be very interesting to see how this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Doesn't every single model now print out some heavy snow for the area? Not for the areas in South Central PA that he shaded in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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