HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't know..looks pretty far separated still when the ULL exits off of HSE. I do agree right after it helps give it a boot..but I'm not sure if it's that big of a deal quite yet. The blocking takes on an "omega" look between that wave, the Atlantic Low and the Quebec Ridge. The less influence from the back-end wave would increase ridging out West and diminish the increasing momentum of this thing diving down under the block. I think these small differences can have an effect on the negative tilt timing and therefore its subsequent occluding process. I guess we will found out. Good talk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless, the euro op just seems to occlude too fast which can happen...it did it in the Feb blizzard we had as well. You mean the model occluded too fast compared to actual or it seemed like it was modeled to occlude too fast but, that was the actual result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't know..looks pretty far separated still when the ULL exits off of HSE. I do agree right after it helps give it a boot..but I'm not sure if it's that big of a deal quite yet. from what I see on WunderMaps (great btw, never knew those existed before) because it is so far upstream from the ULL, the jet is oriented in such a way it becomes a kicker, and increases the forward momentum of the bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Who cares if the probability maps are computer-generated? The model runs themselves are computer-generated. It is just another product to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I saw that 1' qpf during the 24 hrs ending 87 hrs and nearly needed a nitro The 1" shows up at 72 on the 24hr QPF as well fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless, the euro op just seems to occlude too fast which can happen...it did it in the Feb blizzard we had as well. Yes, and the fact that the operational EC has been on the outer (southern) fringes of it's 50 member ensemble spread with the low track, now within 96 hours, has to be a concern. Certainly wouldn't toss out the op EC, but I also wouldn't put as much weight into that deterministic run. Certainly not as much as the GFS and GEFS/SREF means at this point, which are locked in, and compare more favorably with the EC mean than the op EC does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes, and the fact that the operational EC has been on the outer (southern) fringes of it's 50 member ensemble spread with the low track, now within 96 hours, has to be a concern. Certainly wouldn't toss out the op EC, but I also wouldn't put as much weight into that deterministic run. Certainly not as much as the GFS and GEFS/SREF means at this point, which are locked in, and compare more favorably with the EC mean than the op EC does. Adding to your point, I think its pretty rare for the OP to be on its own and to have been right. Anyone know any notable examples (either good or bad for us)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes, and the fact that the operational EC has been on the outer (southern) fringes of it's 50 member ensemble spread with the low track, now within 96 hours, has to be a concern. Certainly wouldn't toss out the op EC, but I also wouldn't put as much weight into that deterministic run. Certainly not as much as the GFS and GEFS/SREF means at this point, which are locked in, and compare more favorably with the EC mean than the op EC does. The GFS is locked in? 12 hours ago it was showing the heaviest axis of snow 75-100 miles South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Who cares if the probability maps are computer-generated? The model runs themselves are computer-generated. It is just another product to look at. Still worth noting as the other product is done by hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Adding to your point, I think its pretty rare for the OP to be on its own and to have been right. Anyone know any notable examples (either good or bad for us)? I just remember it was very south with the 12/09 bliz and joined the party last sometimes it's fickle and wrong once we're within 48 hrs, it'll join the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Adding to your point, I think its pretty rare for the OP to be on its own and to have been right. Anyone know any notable examples (either good or bad for us)? Pretty much every borderline storm this winter the op Euro lead the way and eventually everything else followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Still worth noting as the other product is done by hand. OK, fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems like no matter which scenario plays out, there could be record setting MLLW levels for some shore locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Pretty much every borderline storm this winter the op Euro lead the way and eventually everything else followed. I should have clarified my point, I mean against its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems like no matter which scenario plays out, there could be record setting MLLW levels for some shore locations. Monster like large waves? MLLW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Who cares if the probability maps are computer-generated? The model runs themselves are computer-generated. It is just another product to look at. It matters because when weenies look at the board they'll see it and think "oh gee, the GFS has support from the HPC" when really it's just the HPC's direct interpretation of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 from what I see on WunderMaps (great btw, never knew those existed before) because it is so far upstream from the ULL, the jet is oriented in such a way it becomes a kicker, and increases the forward momentum of the bowling ball. Yep, and I agree with HM too. He brings up a good point. I just don't know if I believe the exact depiction of the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It matters because when weenies look at the board they'll see it and think "oh gee, the GFS has support from the HPC" when really it's just the HPC's direct interpretation of the GFS. We all just said it is not just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Monster like large waves? MLLW lol Mean Lower Low Water Prolonged onshore flow could make this an interesting place: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/tide/sussex.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems like no matter which scenario plays out, there could be record setting MLLW levels for some shore locations. Anyone have thoughts on potential for storm surge in the Ches. Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro still gives DCA an inch. It is close. Of course we all know what not getting flushed means in terms of temps and precip type. But that is for another post. Everyone makes good points. But it is always concerning when the most skilled model is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC or WPC now can support whatever model, but it does not mean you toss the others..especially if there is no way to tell it does not make sense. We are pretty much where we expect to be 72-90hrs out. Little nuances in the flow have a big impact..especially if 50 miles means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Anyone have thoughts on potential for storm surge in the Ches. Bay? Should be sustained NE winds so I would assume the western shore would be where the issues are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS is locked in? 12 hours ago it was showing the heaviest axis of snow 75-100 miles South. The ensembles have been locked in and very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS is locked in? 12 hours ago it was showing the heaviest axis of snow 75-100 miles South. I misstated what I intended to say...sorry. I meant the GFS and GEFS mean seem to be locked in with each other's solution, not to say trends aren't still ongoing. Last night's 00/06Z GFS nevertheless still hit the DC area pretty hard...that's the part that hasn't changed as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 9z SREF Ens Tracks 12z Tracks....GFS is norther-est, er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From about Tuesday Night into Thursday Morning we are piling water into the Mid Atlantic shore. I am not an expert on this stuff, esp. for your area in the Chesapeake/Tidewater etc. But that is a long time to be piling water. At least, astronomically, things aren't bad like they were with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC or WPC now can support whatever model, but it does not mean you toss the others..especially if there is no way to tell it does not make sense. We are pretty much where we expect to be 72-90hrs out. Little nuances in the flow have a big impact..especially if 50 miles means everything. Translation for weenies: Everything is on hold until the EURO comes out after 1 am. (unless the American models cave to to the EURO this eve). Conventional wisdom: a blend between the GFS and EURO is probably a proper baseline and will allow changes in either direction to not be jarring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro ensembles are a bit more progressive then the op...IOW they don't occlude as quick as the operational run. They also aren't as bullish in bringing the s/w southeast through lake Huron like the op run had. So all in all at the surface and aloft, when comparing these features at T+84hrs, the ensemble is a little NE of the op. Those features brought up earlier from HM and others are the nuances that need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Translation for weenies: Everything is on hold until the EURO comes out after 1 am. (unless the American models cave to to the EURO this eve). Conventional wisdom: a blend between the GFS and EURO is probably a proper baseline and will allow changes in either direction to not be jarring. Bad translation. It means it's too early to toss one solution over the other. I don't fall in love with the euro op as much as others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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