EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That' about what Jason thought for amounts. I'd be surprised if the storm gave us less than 1.00 given the sref mean of 1.5. I think the median was also in that 1.5 or so range. The storm on Jan 25th was modeled by the Euro to be a big 6-8" storm for days then within like 60 hrs it went to crap and SREFS lead the way on never showing a big storm. SREFS are a good tool. I wouldn't doubt the Bullseye coming north still as we get closer. I just can't see the SREFs, GFS and GEFS being so wrong only 78 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I hate being on the south side of everything but the Euro. I'mma kick it in the nutz if it screws me over. Remember when three runs of the euro meant lock it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That' about what Jason thought for amounts. I'd be surprised if the storm gave us less than 1.00 given the sref mean of 1.5. I think the median was also in that 1.5 or so range. So what do you think for northern Frederick County, MD, approx. .25-.50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here's what DT just posted on Facebook (not behind a paywall) in regards to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some random thoughts as I wake up from a midnight shift and get ready for another... 1) The operational ECMWF has been consistently south of the EC mean for several runs now (at least 4). Definitely a south member of it's 50 ensemble members. 2) The GFS and GEFS have locked this think in for several runs, with the SREF and NAM coming on board as the event got within 84-87 hours. Definitely an NCEP vs. Non-NCEP line being drawn, but it should be noted that the spread between the GEFS and EC means continues to dwindle in terms of the forecast track. What's ironic is that when this event was deep into the medium range, the EC was the farthest north solution while the GFS and GEFS were most supressed. Now it's reversed. I would still expect more convergence with the ensemble means (GEFS/EC/SREF), and convergence with the op runs to those means. Verification between the 60-84 hr timeframe would suggest the mean of the operational EC and GFS is traditionally tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. I do think I've seen the Euro do this before with a big storm around here (might have been the ones in 2010) and I've not seen it turn out correct. Wish I still had Euro pay access. Would love to see in depth what the 500 looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really interesting difference between the GFS and Euro with regards to how they treat the 500 and surface lows. The GFS doesn't stack until it is off the coast, that helps us by providing a negative-tilt trough like aspect, stalling the surface low. The Euro stacks over land in NC, and then dives SE, an evolution that I am not used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. Generally but not necessarily in this pattern. I'm guessing a blend of it and other guidance is superior than just it but its still a concern aroun here and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This will be a fun and interesting storm to track for sure the next 3 days matter what the outcome. However.. keeping my expectations very low for us near the mason dixon line. 50 mile shift looks to be huge here right now. yes me too, im in elkton and im keeping expectations to zero. apparently Virginia is for lovers this year...snow lovers. I'll take my feww dustings and move on to next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. The GFS has that little dipsy-doo in it too. Just not as noticeable to us because the track first brings the low further north and the dip happens further east. If you want to see it, click "Loop All." http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=atlantic¶m=precip_p03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It looks like the Euro is vertically stacked/occluded about 6-hours earlier than the GGEM or GFS. I'm guessing that it then either pops off another low right where we have the best regional baroclinic gradient...either that or some embedded meso low pressure begins to take over as the now occluded original low starts to fill. I'm sure I have the dynamics of the situation wrong but the low is clearly occluding earlier on the Euro than it is on the other globals. Is it correct? Heck if I know, you can probably make an argument for and against its accuracy just based on the virtues of its resolution (relative to the other models) alone. It's a tough nuance to get worked up about from 78 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really interesting difference between the GFS and Euro with regards to how they treat the 500 and surface lows. The GFS doesn't stack until it is off the coast, that helps us by providing a negative-tilt trough like aspect, stalling the surface low. The Euro stacks over land in NC, and then dives SE, an evolution that I am not used to seeing. Yeah, like he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really interesting difference between the GFS and Euro with regards to how they treat the 500 and surface lows. The GFS doesn't stack until it is off the coast, that helps us by providing a negative-tilt trough like aspect, stalling the surface low. The Euro stacks over land in NC, and then dives SE, an evolution that I am not used to seeing. Yeah the EC was doing that a few runs back as well. I think it had the track from Elizabeth City southeast to south of Cape Hatteras. You rarely if ever see that happen around that longitudinal benchmark. For some reason...that particular solution is the one that ends up being the operational run. Meanwhile, the EC mean of all 50 members never had that funky SE shift as the surface low moved offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. Agreed. I'd put it at 60% shot at GFS solution 10% Euro, 30% combination. It's not going to stack over interior NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC Final Maps Day 3 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Day 4 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really interesting difference between the GFS and Euro with regards to how they treat the 500 and surface lows. The GFS doesn't stack until it is off the coast, that helps us by providing a negative-tilt trough like aspect, stalling the surface low. The Euro stacks over land in NC, and then dives SE, an evolution that I am not used to seeing. It looks like the Euro is vertically stacked/occluded about 6-hours earlier than the GGEM or GFS. I'm guessing that it then either pops off another low right where we have the best regional baroclinic gradient...either that or some embedded meso low pressure begins to take over as the now occluded original low starts to fill. I'm sure I have the dynamics of the situation wrong but the low is clearly occluding earlier on the Euro than it is on the other globals. Is it correct? Heck if I know, you can probably make an argument for and against its accuracy just based on the virtues of its resolution (relative to the other models) alone. It's a tough nuance to get worked up about from 78 hours out... Yeah the EC was doing that a few runs back as well. I think it had the track from Elizabeth City southeast to south of Cape Hatteras. You rarely if ever see that happen around that longitudinal benchmark. For some reason...that particular solution is the one that ends up being the operational run. Meanwhile, the EC mean of all 50 members never had that funky SE shift as the surface low moved offshore. Good, I'm glad I'm not the only one who perhaps questions it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 other than higher resolution, anything to account for the Euro wanting to vertically stack the lows sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No one has mentioned yet the glaring differences with the Canadian-NW Atlantic setup. The ECMWF is trying to incorporate another northern wave, which is what the actual storm originally splits from. It has no interaction with the NW Atlantic low either. The GFS does NOT incorporate this Canadian Wave and interacts with the NW Atlantic Low. So, to simply say that the ECMWF has more blocking is actually false. The ECMWF actually lifts the NW Atlantic Low out faster. This is what I meant last week in the Philly Subforum when I said "the northern stream is littered with waves." A lot of players. If the influence of this continues to get incorporated, I could actually see a SE trend in the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC Final Maps Day 3 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Day 4 -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Doesn't look like they favor the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good, I'm glad I'm not the only one who perhaps questions it. I brought up the occluding/redeveloping process last night as a possible issue but there are still large-scale type of differences going on in the Canada-NW Atlantic sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good, I'm glad I'm not the only one who perhaps questions it. I don't see how the EURO solution can be correct for the simple fact that the 300 mb pattern is generally aligned from SW to NE. The EURO would assume that the 500 mb low would have enough vorticity to either buckle the flow at 300 mb or simple ramrod across. The EURO solution reminds me of tropical models that use persistence only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 when do euro ensembles comeout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 when do euro ensembles comeout? About an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No one has mentioned yet the glaring differences with the Canadian-NW Atlantic setup. The ECMWF is trying to incorporate another northern wave, which is what the actual storm originally splits from. It has no interaction with the NW Atlantic low either. The GFS does NOT incorporate this Canadian Wave and interacts with the NW Atlantic Low. So, to simply say that the ECMWF has more blocking is actually false. The ECMWF actually lifts the NW Atlantic Low out faster. This is what I meant last week in the Philly Subforum when I said "the northern stream is littered with waves." A lot of players. If the influence of this continues to get incorporated, I could actually see a SE trend in the next 48 hrs. I just saw this, and wow, that is a huge difference. The GFS has trended away from interaction with the Canada shortwave (probably why it brings the precip a bit north this run). Why is this interaction causing a shunt? Is it due to the orrientation. Normally, I see shortwave interaction causing a phase, and dragging the storm further north. Is the angling just wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't see how the EURO solution can be correct for the simple fact that the 300 mb pattern is generally aligned from SW to NE. The EURO would assume that the 500 mb low would have enough vorticity to either buckle the flow at 300 mb or simple ramrod across. The EURO solution reminds me of tropical models that use persistence only. These processes are dynamical, i.e. over time. The problem is you have yet another northern stream s/w on the ECMWF showing up (what the storm originally splits from and no this isn't the solution from last week where phasing was trying to happen). As this begins to dive SE underneath the block, which the GFS does not do, it adds forward momentum to the southern wave...pushing it SE under the blocking even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't see how the EURO solution can be correct for the simple fact that the 300 mb pattern is generally aligned from SW to NE. The EURO would assume that the 500 mb low would have enough vorticity to either buckle the flow at 300 mb or simple ramrod across. The EURO solution reminds me of tropical models that use persistence only. gfs_namer_069_300_wnd_ht.gif how can you use the GFS's 300 mb pattern to make an interpretation of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 About an hour ty Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC Prob snow graphics are pretty gung-ho for our area in their afternoon update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC Prob snow graphics are pretty gung-ho for our area in their afternoon update Care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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