AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like some members want to phase a bit and pull it north. Goes to show nothing is off the table yet. What website are you guys looking at? Just curious because the 12z GEFS hasn't updated yet on the NCEP website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What website are you guys looking at? Just curious because the 12z GEFS hasn't updated yet on the NCEP website. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html or PSU Ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Extrapolating the 48 RGEM seems like an even more weenie exercise than debating the 84 NAM. Look the DC and Baltimore folks want it North so they're hugging the GFS and NAM while the EURO/UKMET/RGEM are all south. If the 12z Euro heads North then you DC folks will get your jackpot, but until then we wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hopefully the euro 500mb low gets weaker so it can be pulled north....I think the biggest problem last night was its strength...nothing could stop it from bowling southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hopefully the euro 500mb low gets weaker so it can be pulled north....I think the biggest problem last night was its strength...nothing could stop it from bowling southeast Doesn't it have a tendency to over do 500mb cut off lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Besides the temps CMC isn't even that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Doesn't it have a tendency to over do 500mb cut off lows? it might....i'm not sure....I think a lot of the reason it gets shunted southeast is its own momentum and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it might....i'm not sure....I think a lot of the reason it gets shunted southeast is its own momentum and nothing else This is from NWS The ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading U.K.) Medium-Range Forecast Model. Overall, the ECMWF does well in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year (such as October through April). Also, the ECMWF model tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wave number transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transitions (Berry et al. 1996, CR TM 111). This model does the best of the medium-range forecast models during "shallow cold air situations". There is a bias in the model to "overdevelop" mid/upper tropospheric cyclones across the southwestern U.S. Situations arise where this model will be too slow to predict the movement of cyclones from the southwest deserts. This model has a slight tendency to forecast mid/upper tropospheric heights and the resultant thickness calculations too high (i.e., a "warm" bias). There are some situations, especially during the warmer portion of the annual cycle, when this model has too many closed gyres. This bias may be related to its T216 wave number resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM is a huge hit as well. Looks very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No matter what small fluctuaions occur in guidance the next 72 hours, you are going to want to be in northern and central VA west of 95 for this storm for the crazy good stuff. I knew living 40 miles west of town would payoff for me one of these days! That being said, the solutions verbatum would meet warning criteria for most LWXers- isnt that a victory after this putrid winter? I was wondering when moving to Gainesville would pay off.Maybe this is the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Look the DC and Baltimore folks want it North so they're hugging the GFS and NAM while the EURO/UKMET/RGEM are all south. If the 12z Euro heads North then you DC folks will get your jackpot, but until then we wait... No point in extrapolating the RGEM when the GGEM is around. The only "bad" model run for the DC metro so far this morning is the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No point in extrapolating the RGEM when the GGEM is around. The only "bad" model run for the DC metro so far this morning is the UKMET. Apologies if this has already been mentioned (not going back several pages to check here), but hasn't the Ukie been the farthest south all along? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Disagreement with the OP much? Most members pull it up the coast... or at least try to. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Apologies if this has already been mentioned (not going back several pages to check here), but hasn't the Ukie been the farthest south all along? Just curious. Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Pretty much Kinda figured so...thanks. Not trying to suggest it's wrong, but just to get an idea of the consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Disagreement with the OP much? Most members pull it up the coast... or at least try to. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Wow. Every single member crushes the Northern Shenandoah Valley. I dont ever remember that 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow. Every single member crushes the Northern Shenandoah Valley. I dont ever remember that 3 days out. That area seems pretty locked in. High elevation around CHO/ROA has been clocked for days. Wouldn't be surprised if those spots jackpot tho still time for some shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow. Every single member crushes the Northern Shenandoah Valley. I dont ever remember that 3 days out. I am close enough with good elevation IMBY W of da 'Burg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow. Every single member crushes the Northern Shenandoah Valley. I dont ever remember that 3 days out. Oh yeah, your area down into DC metro is going to get clocked, no doubt. Its the evolution after that's wavering. The sticking point is a vort lobe up in NH that either does or does not get "sucked" into the bowling ball causing it to jump north. Edit: See below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd laugh if the NE got hit somehow... 10 of the members clock them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 EURO looks better @ 54hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is from NWS The ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading U.K.) Medium-Range Forecast Model. Overall, the ECMWF does well in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year (such as October through April). Also, the ECMWF model tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wave number transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transitions (Berry et al. 1996, CR TM 111). This model does the best of the medium-range forecast models during "shallow cold air situations". There is a bias in the model to "overdevelop" mid/upper tropospheric cyclones across the southwestern U.S. Situations arise where this model will be too slow to predict the movement of cyclones from the southwest deserts. This model has a slight tendency to forecast mid/upper tropospheric heights and the resultant thickness calculations too high (i.e., a "warm" bias). There are some situations, especially during the warmer portion of the annual cycle, when this model has too many closed gyres. This bias may be related to its T216 wave number resolution. Ha, this is quite old and outdated (where did you get it from?). The fact that it references T216 is all you need to know (the ECMWF is run at T1279 now, I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like 6 or 7 of the ensembles give us 1.5"+ QPF (12z GFS map above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Besides the temps CMC isn't even that bad. It's the trend I didn't like. It shifted south about 50 miles. It was way north at 0z. Got 1" qpf all the way to 80 in pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 EURO looks better @ 54hrs. yes...def better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's the trend I didn't like. It shifted south about 50 miles. It was way north at 0z. Got 1" qpf all the way to 80 in pa. OK, got it. Time to stop talking about the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yes...def better so far It most def does... hoping it can hold that for another 24 hrs on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It most def does... hoping it can hold that for another 24 hrs on the run Thanks Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 yes...def better so far I wanna see the face in the next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK, got it. Time to stop talking about the GGEM. I don't even know why it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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