Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Text shows dca .96 through 6z thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't buy it that far south. Look how it wraps the low back to the southwest at hr 84-90. It seems to do that quite a bit, but never really verifies to that extent. I can't rule it out, but I'm suspicious of that. A ray of hope. But honestly, anybody down or upset that we only get ".85" in this winter is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Text shows dca .96 through 6z thurs If that's a miss... Who has the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So Euro still likes Richmond. Don't have access to details. But I'd assume there still a rain to snow scenario.. even with the higher precip totals for the Metro area... First .75 definitely falls as rain with text output. Next 1" looks to be all snow. Kinda reading between the lines. Only have surface/850 and not sure about in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i will forever mock storm naming so whatever. but i'm still pretty sure the idea originated here. i saw it first from wxusaf... no doubt a lot of the cwg peeps read this board. I don't know why we couldn't wait until the actual discussion later to mention it. seems very accuwx-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 First .75 definitely falls as rain with text output. Next 1" looks to be all snow. Kinda reading between the lines. Only have surface/850 and not sure about in between. sounds like stickage problems for sure it it pans out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z Euro brings .96" verbatim to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those who have access to the precip maps, what does it show for Chicago? I think that is a key factor. While NAM and GFS shoes 8"+ there Euro last night was like 2-3" If Chicago gets crushed I think we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even though the Euro is south with less QPF, I would not complain at all with "only" 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If that's a miss... Who has the temps? 850's plenty cold throughout. -3.5 to -4.5 Surface ranges from +1.5 to 3.5+/-. Not so worried about surface on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If that's a miss... Who has the temps? WED 06Z 06-MAR 2.5 -4.5 0.01 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.4 0.30 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.7 -4.5 0.28 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.5 -3.9 0.24 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.5 -3.6 0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd like to see if other mets agree. I can't rule it out because it's a strong ULL, but I've seen the euro do this before and then back off a bit. Just a little suspicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those who have access to the precip maps, what does it show for Chicago? I think that is a key factor. While NAM and GFS shoes 8"+ there Euro last night was like 2-3" If Chicago gets crushed I think we will be fine. Midway just over .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those who have access to the precip maps, what does it show for Chicago? I think that is a key factor. While NAM and GFS shoes 8"+ there Euro last night was like 2-3" If Chicago gets crushed I think we will be fine. I think for a storm like this developing on the coast that won't be a key factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those who have access to the precip maps, what does it show for Chicago? I think that is a key factor. While NAM and GFS shoes 8"+ there Euro last night was like 2-3" If Chicago gets crushed I think we will be fine. between .50-75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Midway just over .6 So it is increasing over there now. I like that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't know why we couldn't wait until the actual discussion later to mention it. seems very accuwx-ish. i know why it's done. i should probably just stop commenting. i'll call it the march 2013 snowstorm should it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Text shows dca .96 through 6z thurs That' about what Jason thought for amounts. I'd be surprised if the storm gave us less than 1.00 given the sref mean of 1.5. I think the median was also in that 1.5 or so range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The KING has spoken! I think we will be fine with the euro, GFS, cmc solutions- you name it. It's the "edges" like ROA, BWI, and DCA (sorta) that are still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think for a storm like this developing on the coast that won't be a key factor. It would matter cause it would allow the primary to pull everything more northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That' about what Jason thought for amounts. I'd be surprised if the storm gave us less than 1.00 given the sref mean of 1.5. I think the median was also in that 1.5 or so range. The storm on Jan 25th was modeled by the Euro to be a big 6-8" storm for days then within like 60 hrs it went to crap and SREFS lead the way on never showing a big storm. SREFS are a good tool. I wouldn't doubt the Bullseye coming north still as we get closer. I just can't see the SREFs, GFS and GEFS being so wrong only 78 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I hate being on the south side of everything but the Euro. I'mma kick it in the nutz if it screws me over. Remember when three runs of the euro meant lock it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That' about what Jason thought for amounts. I'd be surprised if the storm gave us less than 1.00 given the sref mean of 1.5. I think the median was also in that 1.5 or so range. So what do you think for northern Frederick County, MD, approx. .25-.50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here's what DT just posted on Facebook (not behind a paywall) in regards to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some random thoughts as I wake up from a midnight shift and get ready for another... 1) The operational ECMWF has been consistently south of the EC mean for several runs now (at least 4). Definitely a south member of it's 50 ensemble members. 2) The GFS and GEFS have locked this think in for several runs, with the SREF and NAM coming on board as the event got within 84-87 hours. Definitely an NCEP vs. Non-NCEP line being drawn, but it should be noted that the spread between the GEFS and EC means continues to dwindle in terms of the forecast track. What's ironic is that when this event was deep into the medium range, the EC was the farthest north solution while the GFS and GEFS were most supressed. Now it's reversed. I would still expect more convergence with the ensemble means (GEFS/EC/SREF), and convergence with the op runs to those means. Verification between the 60-84 hr timeframe would suggest the mean of the operational EC and GFS is traditionally tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. I do think I've seen the Euro do this before with a big storm around here (might have been the ones in 2010) and I've not seen it turn out correct. Wish I still had Euro pay access. Would love to see in depth what the 500 looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really interesting difference between the GFS and Euro with regards to how they treat the 500 and surface lows. The GFS doesn't stack until it is off the coast, that helps us by providing a negative-tilt trough like aspect, stalling the surface low. The Euro stacks over land in NC, and then dives SE, an evolution that I am not used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's a weird looking progression for the low. Generally but not necessarily in this pattern. I'm guessing a blend of it and other guidance is superior than just it but its still a concern aroun here and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This will be a fun and interesting storm to track for sure the next 3 days matter what the outcome. However.. keeping my expectations very low for us near the mason dixon line. 50 mile shift looks to be huge here right now. yes me too, im in elkton and im keeping expectations to zero. apparently Virginia is for lovers this year...snow lovers. I'll take my feww dustings and move on to next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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