Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Won't an ensemble mean tend to spread out the qpf? probably.. but i'd be a little surprised if there is a big area of 2"+ liquid. the storm moves slow so it's possible but that's near the ceiling of most winter storms in the area--tho march is a good time to max precip out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For us up north, how far North does the precip shield make it? gets .5" up to near philly in an e/w band -- .25" up to about NYC tho mainly misses long island etc to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As Yoda, Mitch, and myself have just mentioned, the h5 on the srefs looks to be turning slightly to the north at the end of its run. I suppose if it turns, the low will turn as well? 850 temps are pretty warm in VA in response to the further north 5Hvort don't know if that was mentioned/noticed o.t. although they are not showing up on radar, I went through some really impressive snow showers around the Baltimore Beltway on my way back from Bel Air I was surprised how heavy they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wunder snow maps has placed a wall just west of the dc metro area. Snow hits the wall but doesn't advance to DC. Is that because the surface temps are warm and it won't show any cooling with the precipitation? That and euro goes through a weird evolution where the storm amps then fades southeast right as it gets to us. I don't fully buy that solution looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 gets .5" up to near philly in an e/w band -- .25" up to about NYC tho mainly misses long island etc to the south. imho, in light of temps, I think one will need 1"+ qpf totals to see any meaningful snow accum edit: I'm talking east of the high ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That and euro goes through a weird evolution where the storm amps then fades southeast right as it gets to us. I don't fully buy that solution looks weird. maybe tho it's not that different then what we saw on like feb 5-6 just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 imho, in light of temps, I think one will need 1"+ qpf totals to see any meaningful snow accum edit: I'm talking east of the high ground yeah perhaps.. even then not sold DC gets more than a few inches. snow maps don't really drop anything up north of note even with the precip up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 imho, in light of temps, I think one will need 1"+ qpf totals to see any meaningful snow accum edit: I'm talking east of the high ground Hella yes. Need huge rates to get a decent (any) accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z NAM a bit faster with the h5 energy in E MT at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yeah perhaps.. even then not sold DC gets more than a few inches. snow maps don't really drop anything up north of note even with the precip up there. that's certainly why I don't think the current prog from the Euro for me is great, but I do think it continues the creep north at some point it will jog a bit south from its prior run and that usually spells the end of the the northerly movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 850 temps are pretty warm in VA in response to the further north 5Hvort don't know if that was mentioned/noticed o.t. although they are not showing up on radar, I went through some really impressive snow showers around the Baltimore Beltway on my way back from Bel Air I was surprised how heavy they were But they are crashing Mitch. My area goes from just under 0c at 81 hours to nearly -4c 6 hours later (1am Wed morn, just as heavy precip should be going strong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ryan Mahue said the new GGEM has been performing as well as the GFS and barely below the EURO 025] Ryan Maue @RyanMaue .@EricBlake12 during same time period using 00z, 12z: GFS = 0.922, ECMWF = 0.939. (Anomaly Correlation 5-day z500 NH) Details 025] 48 minsRyan Maue @RyanMaue How's the new Canadian Global model performing? For 5-day N. Hemi height skill -- very well. r = 0.922 pic.twitter.com/7tbnR6Dab4 Details Go to full profile → I brought this up last night but didnt have the data readily available. The Ggem was the first model to bring this system north fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I brought this up last night but didnt have the data readily available. The Ggem was the first model to bring this system north fwiw. The GGEM first had this system way north, like Chicago north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 But they are crashing Mitch. My area goes from just under 0c at 81 hours to nearly -4c 6 hours later (1am Wed morn, just as heavy precip should be going strong). yes; I was just talking about the SREF at 87 hrs it looks like the 0 line "hump" gets as far north as La Plata, MD, give or take, before it settles to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Now has more of a miller B look to it. 15z sref mean shows 2 members that don't bring precip into HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Now has more of a miller B look to it. 15z sref mean shows 2 members that don't bring precip into HGR. How many have 1"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a bit more southern stream energy at 54 on 18z compared to 12z NAM at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z nam is Further east with the 50/50 low and further west with the kicker and further north with the S/W. Moderate improvement from 12z IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z nam is Further east with the 50/50 low and further west with the kicker and further north with the S/W. Moderate improvement from 12z IMO. LWX tossed the 12z NAM as an outlier in its AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM smokin' dat loudpack. I mean, the look is better than 12z, but even the 12z was an outlier with that northern placement of the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 LWX tossed the 12z NAM as an outlier in its AFD wonder why need more nam pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM at 81 with the continuation of the 3 contour closed h5 low in KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 wonder why need more nam pbp It's an appetizer. WE need something to fill time before the GFs rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 this is all I need to see on the NAM...yummy http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the best way to analyze the nam is to never ever click past hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah, the NAM is about to go to town after that 84 hour panel. Yes, it's the NAM...just describing the model. It's tossworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 the best way to analyze the nam is to never ever click past hr 48. I miss the NGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I just wish this could be right http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the best way to analyze the nam is to never ever click past hr 48. and if you're going to do that, at least don't feel the need to post a pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM starts the same left hook on the 5H vort from 81hrs to 84hrs just as the SREF did at the same time periods, aiming for a west-east movement across southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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