psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ukie disagrees What is your location? You seem to have some obsession that this is being supressed into central or southern va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes it can and has pulled off some lone-wins. But I don't think we are being weenies adjusting its solution north a bit to fit with its ensembles and the GFS family. If we still have this situation after today's 2 runs of it, then we'll start talking about considering it a solution that's equally likely. It's never easy... euro has shown something similar like 2 of 3 last runs? im not gonna hug it if it's on its own entirely there but it could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is your location? You seem to have some obsession that this is being supressed into central or southern va. He is in Richmond of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is your location? You seem to have some obsession that this is being supressed into central or southern va. Of course-- DT mentioned it to. UK verifies a smidge better than the GFS. Not having the 3-6 hour break downs or all the layers makes it a useless tool for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro has shown something similar like 2 of 3 last runs? im not gonna hug it if it's on its own entirely there but it could be right.[/quote Exactly- it's actually been 4 runs or so that have shafted the central Shenandoah valley. Lets see what 12z says, but I would be careful given the euros persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro has shown something similar like 2 of 3 last runs? im not gonna hug it if it's on its own entirely there but it could be right. Yes. It has shown a southern track for 2 runs while the 00z Sat run was more north like the GFS. I'm right there with you guys that it is nerve-racking when the OP EURO is on its own and consistent. If you make it 4 runs by tonight of being south, then it may be a legit track. For now, it has been on the southern edge of the ensemble mean for the 2 runs it has been south; so, I've got to adjust north. Perhaps a compromise? I'm glad I don't work at LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Henry M's First Call. He's actually pretty conservative: http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/first-snowmap-for-the-storm/7310716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro op and ensembles weren't far off in terms of MSLP placement so something to think about, but it looked like the euro op was a little too tight with its precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro op and ensembles weren't far off in terms of MSLP placement so something to think about, but it looked like the euro op was a little too tight with its precip shield. Yeah but it was south with the mid level lows which may explain the precipitation. The MSLP placement is not as important, esp. because this will be occluding and redeveloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM looks to be a mid point between the GFS and EURO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Henry M's First Call. He's actually pretty conservative: http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/first-snowmap-for-the-storm/7310716 Wasn't he in the group of meteorologists claiming a "north trend" would kick in and bring a snowstorm up and down the NE coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wasn't he in the group of meteorologists claiming a "north trend" would kick in and bring a snowstorm up and down the NE coast? It's funny, for the longest time I thought you were Henry M.....until I read your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS shows about 1 inch of water from 6:00PM Wed to 6:00 AM Thursday... in my opinion that is when the flakes will count. It will be dark and the initial change over stuff will (hopefully) have already occurred. IMHO the GFS looked like the best case scenario in terms of timing... even with 7:1 ratios DC would see warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's ice, and it's .25" Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What is your location? You seem to have some obsession that this is being supressed into central or southern va. Not trying to rain on the parade....I am just south of ezf.....I see no reason why just completely looking at other models that have been consistant is a crime..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah but it was south with the mid level lows which may explain the precipitation. The MSLP placement is not as important, esp. because this will be occluding and redeveloping. Yeah the ensembles looked further north at H5 which explains why the euro op was tighter with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's ice, and it's .25" Haha. Yeah, I looked more closely when I switched from phone to desktop. Deleted the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ther sounding for DCA at 15z was conditionally unstable looking. the only condition being Bob if your wife would allow tssn+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM looks to be a mid point between the GFS and EURO.. Ehh ggem looks kinda blah to me. Cut down on precip in Maryland north of Balt a lot and still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah the ensembles looked further north at H5 which explains why the euro op was tighter with the precip. What hasn't been discussed a lot are winds....are they particular strong or noteworthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The EURO and UKMET don't really hit Chicago much compared to GFS and NAM which give them 8"+ That will be something to watch. If they get hit hard then it is coming north of the Euro Track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not trying to rain on the parade....I am just south of ezf.....I see no reason why just completely looking at other models that have been consistant is a crime..... The truth is no one knows what this will do exactly. Minor shifts of 50 miles make a huge difference. The sref nam gefs ec ens combo might be right and best snows are dc and Balt. But I just as easily can see the uk op ec being right with a more compact southern solution. But acting like we know which solution is right based on what we want to happen gets old. Offer analysis of why that solution makes sense meteorologicaly or it adds nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ehh ggem looks kinda blah to me. Cut down on precip in Maryland north of Balt a lot and still warm. Well, I'm in Lynchburg.. I've never counted the GGEM temps-- never. always warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The difference is how the block is handled. The GFS/NAM move it further east faster than the Euro. Hence the precip makes it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z RGEM well South of the 12z NAM at 48. The RGEM is usually the better model. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39564-march-5-6-storm-discussion/?p=2172920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wasn't he in the group of meteorologists claiming a "north trend" would kick in and bring a snowstorm up and down the NE coast? yes from Virginia to New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Extrapolating the 48 RGEM seems like an even more weenie exercise than debating the 84 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look great again....and for NJ/NY too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No matter what small fluctuaions occur in guidance the next 72 hours, you are going to want to be in northern and central VA west of 95 for this storm for the crazy good stuff. I knew living 40 miles west of town would payoff for me one of these days! That being said, the solutions verbatum would meet warning criteria for most LWXers- isnt that a victory after this putrid winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look great again....and for NJ/NY too lol Looks like some members want to phase a bit and pull it north. Goes to show nothing is off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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