PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 north trend is classic weenie logic Well, call it whatever you want but the notion that south central VA is getting 2 feet of snow is bogus as some of us kept saying. It could go back south but this look doesn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ukie disagrees Well in THAT case, storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Elevation matter here at all? A couple degrees make ratios better? Or doesn't matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yup. Too many folks here quick to call people weenies for real trend. yesterday afternoon the ULL was literally moving southeast over Hatteras as it entered water and now it is moving E/NE....that is a northward trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Elevation matter here at all? A couple degrees make ratios better? Or doesn't matter? it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm really concerned about BL holding down totals. GFS is rather toasty during the height of the precip. This of course will be a problem the further southeast you go as well as lower in elevation. I don't think based on this run, 6" in DCA is out of the realm. 8-14" in the northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 there has actually been a north trend with the ULL and it is no longer getting shoved southeast....it is turning the corner Yes-- when it's a big event down here, it goes south of i-40 in NC> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Elevation matter here at all? A couple degrees make ratios better? Or doesn't matter? Yes Some. I am rarely in the bullseye for qpf during Noreasters. But I usually end up with as much or more snow than those to the east because of temps. This is a marginal airmass though. So I think being in the heaviest stuff is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm really concerned about BL holding down totals. GFS is rather toasty during the height of the precip. This of course will be a problem the further southeast you go as well as lower in elevation. I don't think based on this run, 6" in DCA is out of the realm. 8-14" in the northern suburbs. It's going ro be something where even 200' in elevation counts. But, if those dynamics are progged...I don't see a huge issue with DC being right at 32F with wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm really concerned about BL holding down totals. GFS is rather toasty during the height of the precip. This of course will be a problem the further southeast you go as well as lower in elevation. I don't think based on this run, 6" in DCA is out of the realm. 8-14" in the northern suburbs. we all know this is going to be an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's going ro be something where even 200' in elevation counts. But, if those dynamics are progged...I don't see a huge issue with DC being right at 32F with wet snow. what do you envision ratios to be like? 10-1 or lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes-- when it's a big event down here, it goes south of i-40 in NC> Yeah, our hope mostly remains in the Euro holding or a shift back with later guidance. Still a couple days away, but this one seems like it might be a near miss down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 what do you envision ratios to be like? 10-1 or lower? Ratios are the last thing on my mind and yours. It depends on the lower level temps. Temps aloft are cold..like above 850 where deep vertical motion would occur..but If its 32F or 34F..that's a difference from almost 10:1 to maybe 6:1 or so. I strongly suggest not to worry about those details yet. The temp will be governed by the dynamics occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not saying Bob and Ian are wrong...we may not be that far apart but when the ULL exits the coast it's orientation and latitude are much better on today's run than yetserdays 18z and you can see it stays inland way longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, our hope mostly remains in the Euro holding or a shift back with later guidance. Still a couple days away, but this one seems like it might be a near miss down here. GFS gives us a decent snowfall-- 3-5 inches. if it all accumulates. I've not got soundings yet to see exactly when it flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I guess I will make up the lack of moisture, relatively speaking, in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's not even this massive 500 low drilling for oil either. Just a strog influx of moisture into the MA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I guess I will make up the lack of moisture, relatively speaking, in ratios. yeah...because the precip shield is set in stone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 there has actually been a north trend with the ULL and it is no longer getting shoved southeast....it is turning the corner The 00z ECMWF was definitely a southern outlier against the other guidance. Both the GFS/EURO ensembles and 00z to now 12z GFS have the h5 low go from southern IL to off the NC/VA border. This is not a DC miss and it is getting to that point where I want to throw confetti at you guys! lol I want to see the ECMWF at 12z, at the very least, bring the mid level centers north to where the GFS suite and ECMWF ensembles have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, our hope mostly remains in the Euro holding or a shift back with later guidance. Still a couple days away, but this one seems like it might be a near miss down here. I'm still clinging to Euro for sure. GFS leaves me with a inch or two at best and the NAM.. I won't even go there. I'd like to have atleast 6" and then I'd call it a win down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, our hope mostly remains in the Euro holding or a shift back with later guidance. Still a couple days away, but this one seems like it might be a near miss down here. GFS is a two parter-- round 1 is rain, and when the second round starts, it's mainly snow. The total qpf of snow is .5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not saying Bob and Ian are wrong...we may not be that far apart but when the ULL exits the coast it's orientation and latitude are much better on today's run than yetserdays 18z and you can see it stays inland way longer Yea, I don't want to split hairs over the issue. I was mostly talking about slp track over the last 24 hours of runs. Even going back to 18z gfs it's a very similar track overall. The precip is better organized w/ 12z so it gives the appearance. But yes, there is a better overall track with the ull than 1-2 days ago. That I will not deny. I just see the term used too loosely at times. Seems that many people analyze a storm by looking at precip maps first. The trend is fantastic no matter which way you slice it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 00z ECMWF was definitely a southern outlier against the other guidance. Both the GFS/EURO ensembles and 00z to now 12z GFS have the h5 low go from southern IL to off the NC/VA border. This is not a DC miss and it is getting to that point where I want to throw confetti at you guys! lol I want to see the ECMWF at 12z, at the very least, bring the mid level centers north to where the GFS suite and ECMWF ensembles have it. 0z Euro was a bit disconcerting last night...you don't want to see it out on its own because sometimes it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's not even this massive 500 low drilling for oil either. Just a strog influx of moisture into the MA region. Yes and this is how the Mid Atlantic does it...not some crazy phase that may or may not time perfectly to bring the right amount of moisture and cold...which always fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yesterday afternoon the ULL was literally moving southeast over Hatteras as it entered water and now it is moving E/NE....that is a northward trend... i didnt even look that close but everyone calls for a north trend no matter what hence the comment. dcalexandra better figure out how to post something besides trolling the staff or he isnt going to make it thru this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i didnt even look that close but everyone calls for a north trend no matter what hence the comment. dcalexandra better figure out how to post something besides trolling the staff or he isnt going to make it thru this storm. i hope he is among many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro was a bit disconcerting last night...you don't want to see it out on its own because sometimes it is right Yes it can and has pulled off some lone-wins. But I don't think we are being weenies adjusting its solution north a bit to fit with its ensembles and the GFS family. If we still have this situation after today's 2 runs of it, then we'll start talking about considering it a solution that's equally likely. It's never easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i didnt even look that close but everyone calls for a north trend no matter what hence the comment. dcalexandra better figure out how to post something besides trolling the staff or he isnt going to make it thru this storm. You all in southern Virginia have gotten a couple of decent snowfalls. It's our turn now. as I was saying i didnt even look that close but everyone calls for a north trend no matter what hence the comment. dcalexandra better figure out how to post something besides trolling the staff or he isnt going to make it thru this storm. You all in southern Virginia have gotten a couple of decent snowfalls. It's our turn now. i hope he is among many as I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS gives us a decent snowfall-- 3-5 inches. if it all accumulates. I've not got soundings yet to see exactly when it flips yeah, but as far as being a big storm I'd consider that a near miss. I don't think we'll get shutout by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm still clinging to Euro for sure. GFS leaves me with a inch or two at best and the NAM.. I won't even go there. I'd like to have atleast 6" and then I'd call it a win down here. It's a little rough in ROA< especially after the 0z GFS last night crushed you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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