stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 They are called clown maps for a reason. Come on yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 They are called clown maps for a reason. Come on yall Hve them put in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM puts the low off of OC. That would be perfect for those of us in DC and the burbs. But it is much further north than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Last post I'll make about the nam but from hr 69-75 it's just an all out pummeling in DCA. All snow and .6+. Surface hovering between 32-34. WinWxLuvr gets absolutely destroyed beyond recognition. I understand the NAM's reputation precedes it, but the fact is the only thing different about the NAM than the other reliable models is that it moves the CCB north from southern/central VA to our back yards so in that respect, even if it's wrong it's only off in the placement of the megaband then again, haven't we all expected a north shift? just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM puts the low off of OC. That would be perfect for those of us in DC and the burbs. But it is much further north than other guidance. The NAM is on the northern envelope of solutions. And it's the NAM. So it's likely gonna be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM is on the northern envelope of solutions. And it's the NAM. So it's likely gonna be wrong. Exactly. It's been north of the globals every single run. People need to keep repeating that to themselves....until 12z gfs comes north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly. It's been north of the globals every single run. People need to keep repeating that to themselves....until 12z gfs comes north... It's out to h9 right now, so one more piece of the 12z puzzle will be placed on the table....You gotta think the QPF will be less than the NAM, which it usually is...Although there was a trend of increasing QPF on the GFS ensembles, so it will be interesting to see what the American models in total have to say before today's 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly. It's been north of the globals every single run. People need to keep repeating that to themselves....until 12z gfs comes north... but all the globals have been creeping north the past few days I guess the question then is, will the NAM lead the way? let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 but all the globals been creeping north the past few days I guess the question then is, will the NAM lead the way? let's hope I think the n creep is more a function of strength of the low and the big bad band spinning out of it vs actual track. This thing is moving kinda slow. It think that helps with not having it too compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is not the NAM better known for overdoing precip amounts as opposed to placement of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is not the NAM better known for overdoing precip amounts as opposed to placement of the storm? Its just known for being wrong at 84. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's out to h9 right now, so one more piece of the 12z puzzle will be placed on the table....You gotta think the QPF will be less than the NAM, which it usually is...Although there was a trend of increasing QPF on the GFS ensembles, so it will be interesting to see what the American models in total have to say before today's 12z euro I'd venture to guess that the QPF on the gfs will be about half + lower than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd venture to guess that the QPF on the gfs will be about half + lower than the NAM. Euro and GFS have both been in the 2"+ qpf range for the precip bulls eye areas so unless NAM starts showing 3"+ qpf at some point, 2"+/- doesn't seem to be outrageous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dont see much difference on the h5 levels comparing 12z 45 to 6z 51 of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS is looking really weak at hr45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its coming north some... and h5 at 54 is closed in S IA on 12z... at 6z at 60 it was open and in NW MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Agreed. it is moving the block out a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its coming north some... and h5 at 54 is closed in S IA on 12z... at 6z at 60 it was open and in NW MO looks a hair slower too.....NAMish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ULL block is further east compared to 06z when comparing 12z 63 to 06z 69 on the h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 72hrs, boom! Really wrapping up, looks like a nice band over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like a more reasonable version of the NAM evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like a more reasonable version of the NAM evolution. I was hoping for the unreasonable version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like a more reasonable version of the NAM evolution. In terms of QPF or placement of the features...or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS is rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sick QPF outputs in NOVA through 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Monster NOVA crush job. Starts by 8:00 Tuesday night out here. Man. It looks alot like the NAM. Low just off of OC. Moved the block just enough to crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Beautiful. Absolutely perfect placement of the slp for a marginal airmass. The ccb would be crushing on this run and I'm pretty sure all snow without even looking at soundings. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 depends on where rain snow line sets up i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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