nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We all have a bias of wanting to favor the model that's best for our region. however, in CHO you're going to get clocked either way. We don't have the details of the EC ENS-- its more east and a shade weaker. I'm not sure what that mean totally. Without the model support of the GFS, I'm not a fan of this event yet for my area. I'm more talking about the consistency of the model with this storm- the euro hasn't really shaken the idea of a west VA bullseye for many many runs- the GFS flipped twice on SLP placement in the last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bob's sounding analysis above suggests a rain quickly to snow and then "stay snow" event... I believe other sounding analysis above also supports snow... do you think LWX is being conservative.. or perhaps they are basing their forecast off of old data? It's just one sounding though from the 6z gfs. There is plenty of support for more rain than the 6z is showing. If 12z comes with with better thermals then there is slightly more confidence but it's so borderline that rain won't be off the table at any time. It's become clear that heavy rates will be snow. Even with a very marginal sounding. Heavy rates are far from locked. LWX is totally doing to right thing. As I've stated many times the last couple years, I typically focus on what's good and point it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z NAM is holding on to the Canadian maritime vort longer than 6z, at least through 48 hrs, which is causing it to slow down the midwest vort a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm more talking about the consistency of the model with this storm- the euro hasn't really shaken the idea of a west VA bullseye for many many runs- the GFS flipped twice on SLP placement in the last 2 runs. Agree-- in stats, of you can throw out the high and low extremes and get a good average. That's a decent strategy most of the time. I'm running a comparison to the 0z EC vs 12z NAm-- like a crack addict. It did hold that vort a little longer east of NE, and the MW vort is maybe 100 miles NE of the EC at the same point. NW MO vs NE Iowa. However, this is a wasted effort on the EC. (Unless it shows big snows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z NAM is holding on to the Canadian maritime vort longer than 6z, at least through 48 hrs, which is causing it to slow down the midwest vort a bit Before anybody starts the "nam is north" with slp stuff... the nam has consistently been north of the globals past its useful range. It's doing it again and it's nothing to overanalyze and freak out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bob's sounding analysis above suggests a rain quickly to snow and then "stay snow" event... I believe other sounding analysis above also supports snow... do you think LWX is being conservative.. or perhaps they are basing their forecast off of old data? Based upon the LWX AFD they have the insight that best snow accumulations will occur at night, (diurnal effect), at elevation and with best rates/precipitation velocities/banding and during the day Wednesday, the strong loow level east wind may overcome the positive-for-snow factors, it will be a tag of war equilibrium. A second look at the GFS suggests a good bit of sleet mixing in during the morning west of the C. Bay (Wednesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z NAM is holding on to the Canadian maritime vort longer than 6z, at least through 48 hrs, which is causing it to slow down the midwest vort a bit 09z and 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 slightly slower evolution on the 12z vs. 6z thru 69 hrs guess we'll see where that takes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z and 12z nam you've got the wrong map the 2 maps you have are 3 hrs. apart not 6 (9z vs. 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM absolutely destroys us. Too bad it's the end of the NAM run showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 in the end, 12z NAM looks lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By 72 hrs it is kicking butt. 850s collaps as strong uvv gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 We got NAM'd. Hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 By 72 hrs it is kicking butt. 850s collaps as strong uvv gets going. Oh crap, Wes is excited Real deal coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM is pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 in the end, 12z NAM looks lovely The 9z srefs and 12z nam look superb @ h5. But if the globals didn't look so good as well I would be distraught. There is rock solid consistency with the evolution of the ull. We're getting close to the time that nothing can take that part away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 in the end, 12z NAM looks lovely You were worried. I could tell. Known you for 12 years now...read you like a book. Its unfortunate though that it's the NAM. Like Wes said UVV's are just killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 you've got the wrong map the 2 maps you have are 3 hrs. apart not 6 (9z vs. 12z) Sorry... edited times...at 3 hrs it's easier to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is a 09/10 bliz type storm, you pick which one you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We got NAM'd. Hard. I was gonna put it in the banter thread, but yeah, that is the NAM being the NAM to the greatest extent possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You were worried. I could tell. Known you for 12 years now...read you like a book. Its unfortunate though that it's the NAM. Like Wes said UVV's are just killer no more or less than any other weenie on this board man, this run went to exactly to what yesterday's SREF and NAM that were getting me excited were suggesting would happen and.....it's still coming down hard at 84 hrs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM is pure porn. Like we knew it would. Maybe that can be the MA's equivalent to New England's AWT (As we thought)? LWKIW Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I was gonna put it in the banter thread, but yeah, that is the NAM being the NAM to the greatest extent possible. It's a best case scenario time 1.3 to 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 and still snowing at 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even outside reliable range, still cut qpf by 1/3 to 1/2? Seems like a perfect run relative to maxing out the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm to the point now where I don't even get excited when I see the NAM do this. If the GFS showed this, I'd still be on the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DCA @ hr 63 when the light stuff arrives. Rain. DCA @ 69 when the deform band arrives. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can the 540 thickness be correct? If so, let the good times roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 and still snowing at 84 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif Prob would for another 6 hrs based off of h7 position and sim radar. Wow at NAM. But its at the end of its run, usefulness near zero even though its been like this for a few runs now. Hopefully GFS will agree to some extent and we can become more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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