PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. I just think it backs off... 3 inch QPF is unreasonable... anything in the .5 - 1 range with a slow moving system in March may = rain. Bob.. for the record I really hope I am wrong.. I am just jaded from the past two winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody ever really said what the EC ens did. 72 1006 L in Tri-State region (E KY area though). I don't see 84. 96 1000 L just NE of HSE (south of the NC/VA border) moving E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 According to HPC, Euro Ensemebles were more like the 0z GFS THE HPC FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRUTHE PERIOD...GIVING STRONGER WEIGHT TO THE GFS NEAR THE END OF THEPERIOD AS THE ECMWF MOVES TO THE SRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILETHE GFS FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC ENS MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. Yeah, his post was really odd/awful to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I just think it backs off... 3 inch QPF is unreasonable... anything in the .5 - 1 range with a slow moving system in March may = rain. Bob.. for the record I really hope I am wrong.. I am just jaded from the past two winters Qpf on last night's 18z was overdone. But saying .5-1 in the face of incredible consensus of the best models on the planet inside of 4 days makes no sense unless you can point out the large error. H5 says it all and its locked in. A large area is going to get 1-2 inches or maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z ec are a little stronger and barely a touch e @96....maybe a little cooler also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is there some kind of chart out there that shows at what temperature and snowfall rate snow sticks at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Latest modeling from GFS, NAM seems to have sped this up a touch. Earlier we had talked about getting the precip going before sunrise on Wed and now it looks like everyone is in precip well before dark on Tues. the euro data I get is so sparse....seems like it is slower. Also, can somebody get Ian to get out his crayons and produce another euro snow map. I need all the info I can get, heading to Canaan where I'll be playing in snow and hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where can I find the numerical output for the GFS/ NAM.. like the chart that shows the surface, 850s, precip by location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree the 6z GFS is holding serve, but I don't like how quickly the L pulls off the coast (OTS). It suggests we changeover to snow more quickly, but if that current DC bullseye starts drifting eastward we could be left with a mostly rain event. We need that L placement just off Norfolk and hugging the coast a bit to keep the bullseye over top of us - that is our only hope for snow in a March scenario like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How about this instead... I agree with the Mets at NWS.. it is probably rain.You need to reread what they said.Edit: and you need to stop posting predictions. You don't have the cred to do that. You'll notice that that is reserved for those who actually know what they are talking about. That's why most of us don't do it. Most of us just throw in some lame observation to be part of the disco. When you step up to making forecasts, you better be packing some skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 d.c bullseye lol.....wow can someone post a model that isnt a 78-84 hr nam or sref.that says that...maybe im missing something CHO-EZF looks to be the bullseye on most everything reliable at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 d.c bullseye lol.....wow can someone post a model that isnt a 78-84 hr nam or sref.that says that...maybe im missing something CHO-EZF looks to be the bullseye on most everything reliable at this point? GFS and its ensembles both bullseye just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the 6z is ezf east? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfsp24090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good morning all. Just caught up on the overnight madness. Sooooo.....we got a streakbuster! Happy to hear it. I like where we are now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alright.. I apologize.. you are right.. I dont have the creds.. I am just paranoid.. This is crunch time... lets pray the models hold serve.. slight jog north on game day!!! Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tracker, its time for storm mode. Terrible analysis has no place in this thread anymore. Bob, you think the models are pretty zoned in on track, timing? All those details like qpf, northern extent, etc. won't be known until just about game time I'm sure. I just wonder about the stall at this point. Seems like that will have more to do with precip totals than other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. probably impossible to overcome sfc temps at 36 overnight.precip and.heavy rates....wow.where are you guys coming.from this a.m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. I think what we are talking about here is bust potential... no do doubt the model output has been special and consistent to boot... but like you said.. there is a lot that can go wrong... expectations have to be kept in check.... It is early march, not mid march.. and the air mass is cold (especially aloft)... if 00Z holds serve.. I am all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at soundings for NW DC it looks like a mostly snow event. Temps while a little warm at the surface at the onset appear to cool quite rapidly. If I'm reading them correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think what we are talking about here is bust potential... no do doubt the model output has been special and consistent to boot... but like you said.. there is a lot that can go wrong... expectations have to be kept in check.... It is early march, not mid march.. and the air mass is cold (especially aloft)... if 00Z holds serve.. I am all in. Just seems like for an area that has gotten largely around 5" total the last 3 years we are pretty confident in this .. we need those high qpf figures to come back to overcome surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 My thread has totally imploded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good luck guys. Seriously hope you grab a good event. I know how good it feels to break the back of a horrible streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bob, you think the models are pretty zoned in on track, timing? All those details like qpf, northern extent, etc. won't be known until just about game time I'm sure. I just wonder about the stall at this point. Seems like that will have more to do with precip totals than other factors. I think the medicine ball is mostly locked. H85 is mostly locked too. Locked within a reasonable distance of course. Meaning we are just about certain to get "decent' precip without having to worry much. How much is still 1-2 days from being locked. Strength of the slp is still being figured out. There's going to be a mean deform on the nw side of this thing. Radar is going to look awesome. There will be a lull between the waa precip in front and the bands that get going later. A nervous period for sure. It's awful hard to overlook how big and strong the Ull is. That's why I don't get the posts about precip totals dropping off the earth. It's a slow moving giant ball of energy. This no run of the mill Ull. It means business.The track of that has not been wavering much at all. Unless models suddenly weaken and/or push the ull track south I'm definitely not going to freak out on precip totals every run. Bust potential is always there but I would feel comfortable saying widespread 1"+ totals are likely for a decent portion of our area. We should all take solace in not needing a magical phase to get hit. That reduces bust potential big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am a wee bit confused. Looking at the 84 hour panel for 2m temps, which has the freezing line all the way up near the US/Canadian border, and the sounding for NW DC for the same time having the surface temp at or about 35, doesn't make sense. Could I be misreading one or the other? I know I'm a weenie but that is a big difference to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My thread has totally imploded I just read 11 pages of some of the worst model disco ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 probably impossible to overcome sfc temps at 36 overnight.precip and.heavy rates....wow.where are you guys coming.from this a.m The problem is to much wish casting! The wish casting gets in the way of looking at what is really going on. I am enjoying the bickering right now because in the end it wont matter. Tonight is when I will take notice and see if it will be snow or rain! God forbide you dis agree with some on here they dont want to hear it unless you say look we going to get snow and lots of it. I love snow want it to snow but jutst cant wish it to snow. Plz interupt the models without the snow bias! Not to be a deb downer not to long ago we had a for sure March storm that the models said we coulding miss,Hate to even think about that storm you know what i am talking about, no one wants to bring up that storm but we all must face the fact how good that storm looked better than this one will and have! This and half of what has been posted should been in the banter thread. My forecast I say wait untl tonight runs until we get a handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bob said: This no run of the mill Ull. It means business.The track of that has not been wavering much at all. Unless models suddenly weaken and/or push the ull track south I'm definitely not going to freak out on precip totals every run. Mentioned this last night ahead of the 0z suite whirlwind, but, the current state of the watches and warnings in the upper midwest (covers 6-7 states) is, I think, a good sign with regard to the strength of that piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Took a brief glance at the overnight models. Most has been covered already. The 06z GFS was interesting in that the upper levels are a little colder than in yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Took a brief glance at the overnight models. Most has been covered already. The 06z GFS was interesting in that the upper levels are a little colder than in yesterday's runs. Agreed. Didn't want to mention it because it an off run. Soundings just a little better. Im not that worried about temps. It's going to be a messy storm for most. That's a given. Just put me under a snowy deform band for 6 hours and I will do naked cartwheels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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