beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Long time member, first-time MA poster coming in peace from the Southeast forum (deadsville over there) looking for some help understanding the 0z Euro run. First of all, comparing the 500mb maps from last night 0z run reveals a pretty shocking different. Tonight's run at 72 hours has the closed low over the Missouri/Ark/Tenn lines. Last night's run had it over ... IOWA?!? At 96 tonight it's off the NC/SC coast, compared to NE NC last night. Yet, and here is what I don't get -- the surface features are actually NORTH of last night's positions? HELP?!? I'll hang up and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those in RNK CWA-- rejoice, for the north trend halted. (for now) No offense to the peeps in DC-- we deserve a BLOCKBUSTER. We survived Feb 5-10. You will make it. you never answered how much snow you got in your backyard since Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 you wont hear me saying this often but I want the primary to hold on as long as possible...I'd really like the ULL to pull itself up by the bootstraps and wedge itself into SW VA....the GEFS was closest to doing this..it must have some amplified members... Haha, yep I don't hear that too often. I still haven't seen the individual members yet of the GEFS but I know there has been several amplified members in previous runs. I noticed the HPC tonight made note that the EURO seemed to be lagging when compared to the 12z euro ensemble mean and GFS suite. It is possible that this is due to the blocking and/or the initial drop southward being deeper than most guidance west of the Apps. I suppose the new 00z ensembles will shed some light on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This whole "we deserve a big storm" thing is a bunch of crap. Didn't Roanoke get a 17" storm in December 09? Huff is being tongue in cheek , but we dont always share storms...they get plenty of storms that dont even touch us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Without getting into the weeds here, it's not quite same as comparing DC climo to NYC. NYC averages about double the annual snowfall of DC. I think DC and RNK are about the same? Though, DC does generally get bigger blockbusters. depends where in NY and where in DC you are talking .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 you never answered how much snow you got in your backyard since Jan 2011 I didn't see that'...we've had maybe 16 inches total. Feb 19th last year was 8.2 and Jan 17th was 4.. everything else under an inch. I'm not saying your drought doesn't suck 15 inches was our difference on Feb 5-6 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 people down south b**ch about 8" storms when we get 15" because they think their snow climo is the same...Huff hasnt stopped complaining about PD2 in 10 years even though I sleeted for hours hundreds of miles north of him Our snow climo is very close. LYH use to be close to 20, now maybe 17 or so with the new 30 year. Roa was 22, now back down to 19 or so. LYH and ROA went from Feb 96 till March 09 in LYH and Dec 19th in ROA without a double digit storm. Longest drought ever. We usually had a double digit event every 3-4 years, same as the Mid Atlantic. Many shared storms, but some differences. Weather is weather, and we know we don't change it-- but we are further from climo starting back from 1996. Won't change this event either way-- but climo does even out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I didn't see that'...we've had maybe 16 inches total. Feb 19th last year was 8.2 and Jan 17th was 4.. everything else under an inch. I'm not saying your drought doesn't suck 15 inches was our difference on Feb 5-6 alone. not sure why you expect to share similar totals in the same storms as us....your years of complaining about DC storms and how they screwed you has never made sense...not getting the same totals as someone 200 mi to your north does not mean you got screwed.....you will have storms that we dont get and vice versa....you probably average more snow than me, but my top winters and top storms are going to be bigger than yours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z op GFS close-up clown map FWIW. Eighteen inches in my back yard FTW. No one will EVER hear ME complain about having to shovel 18 inches of wet snow. Even with ten foot drifts. We won't have to BEG the national guard for assistance either. Man I have NEVER prayed harder for snow. Not even back in high school to get out of a trig exam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Matt, at a quick glance, it seemed the 00z GEFS members were generally north with the majority of the members targeting the DC-area/adjacent VA for max QPF. ECMWF ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Without getting into the weeds here, it's not quite same as comparing DC climo to NYC. NYC averages about double the annual snowfall of DC. I think DC and RNK are about the same? Though, DC does generally get bigger blockbusters. Dulles runs around 22" National about 16" Roanoke 23" Lynchburg 18" So they are in the neighborhood EDIT: Oops, that previous 30 year period, but still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 3Z SREF is a bit north. Nice H5 placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some very good agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some very good agreement there. Any word on euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any word on euro ensemble Low placement looks similar on Raleigh but, IDK about qpf. 6Z NAM looks even more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Looks strange but, the DC crowd would take it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By tommorow night 00z..it will be much more clear for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Cause it takes the primary to nearly CLE before transfering... and pretty much if you are south of EZF by 50 miles or more you are screwed while north of there its rakage time... but of course its during NAM suckage time. DCA would get more precip after 84 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS cuts QPF in half for all... and makes I-95 east QPF max... IAD around an inch... DCA 1.25... CHO and MRB both around .65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NWS Forcast discussion out of LWX indicates that the eastern portions of the CWA will change over to rain during the day on Wed... "THE WHOLE TREND WL REVERSE DURING THE DAY WED...AS A STRONG LLVL ELY FLOW COMPONENT ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOWSHUD SPREAD WARM AIR INLAND. SOME ERN CNTYS SHUD FLIP OVER TO RA...W/ THE RASN LINE WORKING WWD TWD THE BLURDG." Blue ridge mountains?... this forecast would suggest that most of the event is mixing for DC/ Baltimore corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS cuts QPF in half for all... and makes I-95 east QPF max... IAD around an inch... DCA 1.25... CHO and MRB both around .65 What it does is look better up here and also get rid of the ridiculous idea that central VA will get 28 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va That was a situation I started worrying about yesterday afternoon. The NAM and srefs had a solution that looked like a low jumping from the OV to east of the mountains. Get that too far north.... Nobody else mentioned it, so I thought I was just being antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look better I guess... 84 looks pretty good in SLP placement. QPF matches OP pretty closely, but more in western VA area then OP showed... 1.25 to 1.3 DCA is just about the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look better I guess... 84 looks pretty good in SLP placement. QPF matches OP pretty closely, but more in western VA area then OP showed... 1.25 to 1.3 DCA is just about the max Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody ever really said what the EC ens did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody mentioned euro ens? I havent seen them yet. More important than nan/serf. 6z gfs looks fine. I think the track is just about locked. Today is prob the last day for anything major to happen on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant 1.25 qpf is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant DTK said by 12z it should be sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 First guess... DC, more or less, is in the bullseye... maybe a little south west is showing more QPF... but at this range.. DC is pretty much where the models consistently tracking this... With regard to track, the models seems to have locked in on a solution. We may see a slLLPight shift over the next 24 hours.. but no wholesale changes in the track. My GUESS is that the current QPF values are overdone... typically there is some sort of screw job at about the 48-72 hour on the modes... where they all come to consensus and more often than not, we get screwed. I am thinking this time it will be the QPF.. given the some of the crazy high totals we are seeing. I am thinking either 12Z or 00Z suite tonight the whole storm backs off to <1 inch QPF for everyone... at which point mixing/ rain becomes a reality... HEDS- Historic East Coast Drzzle Storm. So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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