yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS cuts QPF in half for all... and makes I-95 east QPF max... IAD around an inch... DCA 1.25... CHO and MRB both around .65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NWS Forcast discussion out of LWX indicates that the eastern portions of the CWA will change over to rain during the day on Wed... "THE WHOLE TREND WL REVERSE DURING THE DAY WED...AS A STRONG LLVL ELY FLOW COMPONENT ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOWSHUD SPREAD WARM AIR INLAND. SOME ERN CNTYS SHUD FLIP OVER TO RA...W/ THE RASN LINE WORKING WWD TWD THE BLURDG." Blue ridge mountains?... this forecast would suggest that most of the event is mixing for DC/ Baltimore corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS cuts QPF in half for all... and makes I-95 east QPF max... IAD around an inch... DCA 1.25... CHO and MRB both around .65 What it does is look better up here and also get rid of the ridiculous idea that central VA will get 28 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va That was a situation I started worrying about yesterday afternoon. The NAM and srefs had a solution that looked like a low jumping from the OV to east of the mountains. Get that too far north.... Nobody else mentioned it, so I thought I was just being antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look better I guess... 84 looks pretty good in SLP placement. QPF matches OP pretty closely, but more in western VA area then OP showed... 1.25 to 1.3 DCA is just about the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS look better I guess... 84 looks pretty good in SLP placement. QPF matches OP pretty closely, but more in western VA area then OP showed... 1.25 to 1.3 DCA is just about the max Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody ever really said what the EC ens did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody mentioned euro ens? I havent seen them yet. More important than nan/serf. 6z gfs looks fine. I think the track is just about locked. Today is prob the last day for anything major to happen on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant 1.25 qpf is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Relax. By 00z after data is sampled better..what tge 6z Gfs shows will be irrelevant DTK said by 12z it should be sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 First guess... DC, more or less, is in the bullseye... maybe a little south west is showing more QPF... but at this range.. DC is pretty much where the models consistently tracking this... With regard to track, the models seems to have locked in on a solution. We may see a slLLPight shift over the next 24 hours.. but no wholesale changes in the track. My GUESS is that the current QPF values are overdone... typically there is some sort of screw job at about the 48-72 hour on the modes... where they all come to consensus and more often than not, we get screwed. I am thinking this time it will be the QPF.. given the some of the crazy high totals we are seeing. I am thinking either 12Z or 00Z suite tonight the whole storm backs off to <1 inch QPF for everyone... at which point mixing/ rain becomes a reality... HEDS- Historic East Coast Drzzle Storm. So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. I just think it backs off... 3 inch QPF is unreasonable... anything in the .5 - 1 range with a slow moving system in March may = rain. Bob.. for the record I really hope I am wrong.. I am just jaded from the past two winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nobody ever really said what the EC ens did. 72 1006 L in Tri-State region (E KY area though). I don't see 84. 96 1000 L just NE of HSE (south of the NC/VA border) moving E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 According to HPC, Euro Ensemebles were more like the 0z GFS THE HPC FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRUTHE PERIOD...GIVING STRONGER WEIGHT TO THE GFS NEAR THE END OF THEPERIOD AS THE ECMWF MOVES TO THE SRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILETHE GFS FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC ENS MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 So your guess goes against every single reliable global model and their ens and your guess has no reasoning to say why the models are wrong other than a guess. Terrible analysis. Yeah, his post was really odd/awful to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I just think it backs off... 3 inch QPF is unreasonable... anything in the .5 - 1 range with a slow moving system in March may = rain. Bob.. for the record I really hope I am wrong.. I am just jaded from the past two winters Qpf on last night's 18z was overdone. But saying .5-1 in the face of incredible consensus of the best models on the planet inside of 4 days makes no sense unless you can point out the large error. H5 says it all and its locked in. A large area is going to get 1-2 inches or maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z ec are a little stronger and barely a touch e @96....maybe a little cooler also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is there some kind of chart out there that shows at what temperature and snowfall rate snow sticks at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Latest modeling from GFS, NAM seems to have sped this up a touch. Earlier we had talked about getting the precip going before sunrise on Wed and now it looks like everyone is in precip well before dark on Tues. the euro data I get is so sparse....seems like it is slower. Also, can somebody get Ian to get out his crayons and produce another euro snow map. I need all the info I can get, heading to Canaan where I'll be playing in snow and hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where can I find the numerical output for the GFS/ NAM.. like the chart that shows the surface, 850s, precip by location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree the 6z GFS is holding serve, but I don't like how quickly the L pulls off the coast (OTS). It suggests we changeover to snow more quickly, but if that current DC bullseye starts drifting eastward we could be left with a mostly rain event. We need that L placement just off Norfolk and hugging the coast a bit to keep the bullseye over top of us - that is our only hope for snow in a March scenario like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How about this instead... I agree with the Mets at NWS.. it is probably rain.You need to reread what they said.Edit: and you need to stop posting predictions. You don't have the cred to do that. You'll notice that that is reserved for those who actually know what they are talking about. That's why most of us don't do it. Most of us just throw in some lame observation to be part of the disco. When you step up to making forecasts, you better be packing some skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 d.c bullseye lol.....wow can someone post a model that isnt a 78-84 hr nam or sref.that says that...maybe im missing something CHO-EZF looks to be the bullseye on most everything reliable at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 d.c bullseye lol.....wow can someone post a model that isnt a 78-84 hr nam or sref.that says that...maybe im missing something CHO-EZF looks to be the bullseye on most everything reliable at this point? GFS and its ensembles both bullseye just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the 6z is ezf east? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfsp24090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good morning all. Just caught up on the overnight madness. Sooooo.....we got a streakbuster! Happy to hear it. I like where we are now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alright.. I apologize.. you are right.. I dont have the creds.. I am just paranoid.. This is crunch time... lets pray the models hold serve.. slight jog north on game day!!! Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tracker, its time for storm mode. Terrible analysis has no place in this thread anymore. Bob, you think the models are pretty zoned in on track, timing? All those details like qpf, northern extent, etc. won't be known until just about game time I'm sure. I just wonder about the stall at this point. Seems like that will have more to do with precip totals than other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. probably impossible to overcome sfc temps at 36 overnight.precip and.heavy rates....wow.where are you guys coming.from this a.m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why you are apologizing...Euro/GFS and yeah the NAM sucks at this range but its showing it too...a QPF thats halved. The point in trying to get snow here was that we need huge rates. If we don't get them, it'll be a nice cold shower. Huge march snowstorms here are rare as hell so at this point, being skeptical isn't exactly stupid. We'll get a better idea @ 12z but if it follows 6z it's not going to be pretty for a lot of folks in VA expecting big amounts. I think what we are talking about here is bust potential... no do doubt the model output has been special and consistent to boot... but like you said.. there is a lot that can go wrong... expectations have to be kept in check.... It is early march, not mid march.. and the air mass is cold (especially aloft)... if 00Z holds serve.. I am all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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