mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 further south than we want it like I said earlier today.....CHO is where I'd go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 WE also are part of this region down here in VA. I don't represent the entire MD/DC/VA area....sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 further south than we want it Wait for it..........BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't represent the entire MD/DC/VA area....sorry... Inch of ice to you, buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait for it..........BOOM. eh....no....nobody from DC north is going to be too happy with this run...on to tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 WE also are part of this region down here in VA. Yeah. Sometimes a forum for the immediate dc/burbs is understandable. Not sure how it would work though. There are a lot of people in a small geographic region. WE usually means DC and the surrounding burbs. Fair? Not really. Reality? unfortunately, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 H5 over Wilmington at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? That, and how similar to the 12Z run is it...significant differences or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh....no....nobody from DC north is going to be too happy with this run...on to tomorrow How bleak are the numbers this run? This is definitely more of a concern than it coming too north for you, I think. This is a pretty ridiculous blocking setup...nothing like 2009-2011 of course....but still ridiculous. Usually these events don't come at the point when the block is coming west and then south. They come once that period is over and it is lifting out as the coastal low takes over as the new "low anomaly" on the height charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Typical timeframe when all models diverge. Onto tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How bleak are the numbers this run? This is definitely more of a concern than it coming too north for you, I think. This is a pretty ridiculous blocking setup...nothing like 2009-2011 of course....but still ridiculous. Usually these events don't come at the point when the block is coming west and then south. They come once that period is over and it is lifting out as the coastal low takes over as the new "low anomaly" on the height charts. it is just a sharp cutoff...I;d say most of DC metro is 0.6 to 0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? Not as qpf as prior runs. 1" near DC. Runs the potomac. 1.5 CHO south. 1.75"-2" richmond and sw. North of dc tails of toward the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 CHO's at 1.58" at Thirs 0Z and looks to still be coming down yep, that's the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serious question. Doesn't the EURO hold back shortwave energy too much sometimes? Would this be worse with a cut off low? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? very quick and dirty DCA: 0.75 BWI: 0.6 IAD: 0.8 EZF: 1.3 CHO: 1.5 RIC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh....no....nobody from DC north is going to be too happy with this run...on to tomorrow Further south is usually the better problem to have to overcome than too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DCA is .88" on the euro. Surface is reading as 36-37 degrees. CHO is 1.87". Surface is 33-35 degrees. BWI is .48". Surface is 36-37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it is just a sharp cutoff...I;d say most of DC metro is 0.6 to 0.8 .6 qpf on the low end total would be a great multiplier for the current season snowfall and would still slash that 2 inch drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does the fmove urther south have anything to do with temps in our area? Or is it still dependent on lp strength and precipitation rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it is just a sharp cutoff...I;d say most of DC metro is 0.6 to 0.8 Okay, thanks. I wonder if the occluding/redeveloping process with this thing is going to cause big headaches with the cutoff/edge of the spiraling comma. The exact timing of when it occludes and when it reforms, possibly more than once, is going to have a big impact on the way the precip is distributed. The beautiful thing about the VA-MD corridor is its ability to squeeze out more moisture because of orographic processes. If isentropic lift / moisture advection etc. gets disrupted due to some crappy timing with occluding/reforming, that could kind of take the strength of the bands down as they are coming through. I have no idea...just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Further south is usually the better problem to have to overcome than too far north definitely...I think it will trend north...Just that the euro isnt showing the herculean totals that the other models were showing for DC....yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ill admit the euro just took the wind out of my sails a bit. I was not expecting it to go south but I will wait for ensembles to see if it was a blip or a huge red flag. Hearing it got suppressed mainly south of dc worries me because I think the northern edge of sig snow is either going to make it close to Philly or it gets suppressed south of dc. That's usually how these go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 no time to lose faith Matt NE got screwed last week w/in 48 hrs on the Euro so with the GEFS where they are, I would think it will readjust N some tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can see between now and tuesday people saying "the north trend can stop now." We are in a good spot wrt being in the northern qpf max. thing is, we're still at 72hrs+ so this ain't set in stone any any stretch I guess that means it could go even further south but I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How bleak are the numbers this run? This is definitely more of a concern than it coming too north for you, I think. This is a pretty ridiculous blocking setup...nothing like 2009-2011 of course....but still ridiculous. Usually these events don't come at the point when the block is coming west and then south. They come once that period is over and it is lifting out as the coastal low takes over as the new "low anomaly" on the height charts. Yeah, I really don't see this one coming north. The block is really oriented very much to the west. Several days ago, the suppressed solutions had the block oriented in this fashion where it was "pointing" towards the Midwest, meaning the downstream confluence and ULL features were very close to the coast, and thus a suppressive pattern. The runs that came north made a drastic shift with the orientation of the block, as it was oriented a lot more eastward. It was then "pointing" towards the Atlantic, and actually bridging with the height rises out ahead of our bowling ball, leading to large height rises, and the storm climbing the coast. Additionally, this meant that the downstream confluence was also further east. Now, we are back to the original solutions with respect to the blocking: oriented well to the west, not bridging with the SE ridge, and the ULL/confluence is very close to the coast. Thus, the consistently suppressed solutions. The models appear to be pretty locked in with respect to the orientation and strength of the block, and it's hard to imagine that they are all significantly wrong with the strength and orientation of such a large blocking feature within a relatively small lead time. I definitely do think there is room for this to trend to the very high precipitation amounts for the DC area. But I'd be shocked if DC were too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Okay, thanks. I wonder if the occluding/redeveloping process with this thing is going to cause big headaches with the cutoff/edge of the spiraling comma. The exact timing of when it occludes and when it reforms, possibly more than once, is going to have a big impact on the way the precip is distributed. The beautiful thing about the VA-MD corridor is its ability to squeeze out more moisture because of orographic processes. If isentropic lift / moisture advection etc. gets disrupted due to some crappy timing with occluding/reforming, that could kind of take the strength of the bands down as they are coming through. I have no idea...just speculating. you wont hear me saying this often but I want the primary to hold on as long as possible...I'd really like the ULL to pull itself up by the bootstraps and wedge itself into SW VA....the GEFS was closest to doing this..it must have some amplified members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is a crappy run all around its torching at the surface even where the heavy precip is other then higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thing is, we're still at 72hrs+ so this ain't set in stone any any stretch I guess that means it could go even further south but I don't think so Im basing my assumption purely on experience. Blocks typically are not as entrenched as modeled 4-5 days out. That means everything wrt 100 mile shifts north. I hope im right.....bc i havent seen many be stronger and force systems south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, I really don't see this one coming north. The block is really oriented very much to the west. Several days ago, the suppressed solutions had the block oriented in this fashion where it was "pointing" towards the Midwest, meaning the downstream confluence and ULL features were very close to the coast, and thus a suppressive pattern. The runs that came north made a drastic shift with the orientation of the block, as it was oriented a lot more eastward. It was then "pointing" towards the Atlantic, and actually bridging with the height rises out ahead of our bowling ball, leading to large height rises, and the storm climbing the coast. Additionally, this meant that the downstream confluence was also further east. Now, we are back to the original solutions with respect to the blocking: oriented well to the west, not bridging with the SE ridge, and the ULL/confluence is very close to the coast. Thus, the consistently suppressed solutions. The models appear to be pretty locked in with respect to the orientation and strength of the block, and it's hard to imagine that they are all significantly wrong with the strength and orientation of such a large blocking feature within a relatively small lead time. I definitely do think there is room for this to trend to the very high precipitation amounts for the DC area. But I'd be shocked if DC were too far south. Yep, exactly. There is just waaaay too much blocking for some massive northward shift. The ECMWF tonight is so strong that it actually shaves the NE edge of the precip shield. I agree that a gradual northward shift is possible, in a realistic fashion, that could put the DC-PHL corridor back into the significant precip shield. But I think with either solution, nothing is going to stop that beautiful VA upslope. That area, as usual, is primed in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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