ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? Not as qpf as prior runs. 1" near DC. Runs the potomac. 1.5 CHO south. 1.75"-2" richmond and sw. North of dc tails of toward the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 CHO's at 1.58" at Thirs 0Z and looks to still be coming down yep, that's the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serious question. Doesn't the EURO hold back shortwave energy too much sometimes? Would this be worse with a cut off low? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh....no....nobody from DC north is going to be too happy with this run...on to tomorrow Further south is usually the better problem to have to overcome than too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DCA is .88" on the euro. Surface is reading as 36-37 degrees. CHO is 1.87". Surface is 33-35 degrees. BWI is .48". Surface is 36-37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it is just a sharp cutoff...I;d say most of DC metro is 0.6 to 0.8 .6 qpf on the low end total would be a great multiplier for the current season snowfall and would still slash that 2 inch drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does the fmove urther south have anything to do with temps in our area? Or is it still dependent on lp strength and precipitation rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it is just a sharp cutoff...I;d say most of DC metro is 0.6 to 0.8 Okay, thanks. I wonder if the occluding/redeveloping process with this thing is going to cause big headaches with the cutoff/edge of the spiraling comma. The exact timing of when it occludes and when it reforms, possibly more than once, is going to have a big impact on the way the precip is distributed. The beautiful thing about the VA-MD corridor is its ability to squeeze out more moisture because of orographic processes. If isentropic lift / moisture advection etc. gets disrupted due to some crappy timing with occluding/reforming, that could kind of take the strength of the bands down as they are coming through. I have no idea...just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ill admit the euro just took the wind out of my sails a bit. I was not expecting it to go south but I will wait for ensembles to see if it was a blip or a huge red flag. Hearing it got suppressed mainly south of dc worries me because I think the northern edge of sig snow is either going to make it close to Philly or it gets suppressed south of dc. That's usually how these go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 no time to lose faith Matt NE got screwed last week w/in 48 hrs on the Euro so with the GEFS where they are, I would think it will readjust N some tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can see between now and tuesday people saying "the north trend can stop now." We are in a good spot wrt being in the northern qpf max. thing is, we're still at 72hrs+ so this ain't set in stone any any stretch I guess that means it could go even further south but I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How bleak are the numbers this run? This is definitely more of a concern than it coming too north for you, I think. This is a pretty ridiculous blocking setup...nothing like 2009-2011 of course....but still ridiculous. Usually these events don't come at the point when the block is coming west and then south. They come once that period is over and it is lifting out as the coastal low takes over as the new "low anomaly" on the height charts. Yeah, I really don't see this one coming north. The block is really oriented very much to the west. Several days ago, the suppressed solutions had the block oriented in this fashion where it was "pointing" towards the Midwest, meaning the downstream confluence and ULL features were very close to the coast, and thus a suppressive pattern. The runs that came north made a drastic shift with the orientation of the block, as it was oriented a lot more eastward. It was then "pointing" towards the Atlantic, and actually bridging with the height rises out ahead of our bowling ball, leading to large height rises, and the storm climbing the coast. Additionally, this meant that the downstream confluence was also further east. Now, we are back to the original solutions with respect to the blocking: oriented well to the west, not bridging with the SE ridge, and the ULL/confluence is very close to the coast. Thus, the consistently suppressed solutions. The models appear to be pretty locked in with respect to the orientation and strength of the block, and it's hard to imagine that they are all significantly wrong with the strength and orientation of such a large blocking feature within a relatively small lead time. I definitely do think there is room for this to trend to the very high precipitation amounts for the DC area. But I'd be shocked if DC were too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is a crappy run all around its torching at the surface even where the heavy precip is other then higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thing is, we're still at 72hrs+ so this ain't set in stone any any stretch I guess that means it could go even further south but I don't think so Im basing my assumption purely on experience. Blocks typically are not as entrenched as modeled 4-5 days out. That means everything wrt 100 mile shifts north. I hope im right.....bc i havent seen many be stronger and force systems south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, I really don't see this one coming north. The block is really oriented very much to the west. Several days ago, the suppressed solutions had the block oriented in this fashion where it was "pointing" towards the Midwest, meaning the downstream confluence and ULL features were very close to the coast, and thus a suppressive pattern. The runs that came north made a drastic shift with the orientation of the block, as it was oriented a lot more eastward. It was then "pointing" towards the Atlantic, and actually bridging with the height rises out ahead of our bowling ball, leading to large height rises, and the storm climbing the coast. Additionally, this meant that the downstream confluence was also further east. Now, we are back to the original solutions with respect to the blocking: oriented well to the west, not bridging with the SE ridge, and the ULL/confluence is very close to the coast. Thus, the consistently suppressed solutions. The models appear to be pretty locked in with respect to the orientation and strength of the block, and it's hard to imagine that they are all significantly wrong with the strength and orientation of such a large blocking feature within a relatively small lead time. I definitely do think there is room for this to trend to the very high precipitation amounts for the DC area. But I'd be shocked if DC were too far south. Yep, exactly. There is just waaaay too much blocking for some massive northward shift. The ECMWF tonight is so strong that it actually shaves the NE edge of the precip shield. I agree that a gradual northward shift is possible, in a realistic fashion, that could put the DC-PHL corridor back into the significant precip shield. But I think with either solution, nothing is going to stop that beautiful VA upslope. That area, as usual, is primed in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Long time member, first-time MA poster coming in peace from the Southeast forum (deadsville over there) looking for some help understanding the 0z Euro run. First of all, comparing the 500mb maps from last night 0z run reveals a pretty shocking different. Tonight's run at 72 hours has the closed low over the Missouri/Ark/Tenn lines. Last night's run had it over ... IOWA?!? At 96 tonight it's off the NC/SC coast, compared to NE NC last night. Yet, and here is what I don't get -- the surface features are actually NORTH of last night's positions? HELP?!? I'll hang up and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 you wont hear me saying this often but I want the primary to hold on as long as possible...I'd really like the ULL to pull itself up by the bootstraps and wedge itself into SW VA....the GEFS was closest to doing this..it must have some amplified members... Haha, yep I don't hear that too often. I still haven't seen the individual members yet of the GEFS but I know there has been several amplified members in previous runs. I noticed the HPC tonight made note that the EURO seemed to be lagging when compared to the 12z euro ensemble mean and GFS suite. It is possible that this is due to the blocking and/or the initial drop southward being deeper than most guidance west of the Apps. I suppose the new 00z ensembles will shed some light on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 you never answered how much snow you got in your backyard since Jan 2011 I didn't see that'...we've had maybe 16 inches total. Feb 19th last year was 8.2 and Jan 17th was 4.. everything else under an inch. I'm not saying your drought doesn't suck 15 inches was our difference on Feb 5-6 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 people down south b**ch about 8" storms when we get 15" because they think their snow climo is the same...Huff hasnt stopped complaining about PD2 in 10 years even though I sleeted for hours hundreds of miles north of him Our snow climo is very close. LYH use to be close to 20, now maybe 17 or so with the new 30 year. Roa was 22, now back down to 19 or so. LYH and ROA went from Feb 96 till March 09 in LYH and Dec 19th in ROA without a double digit storm. Longest drought ever. We usually had a double digit event every 3-4 years, same as the Mid Atlantic. Many shared storms, but some differences. Weather is weather, and we know we don't change it-- but we are further from climo starting back from 1996. Won't change this event either way-- but climo does even out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z op GFS close-up clown map FWIW. Eighteen inches in my back yard FTW. No one will EVER hear ME complain about having to shovel 18 inches of wet snow. Even with ten foot drifts. We won't have to BEG the national guard for assistance either. Man I have NEVER prayed harder for snow. Not even back in high school to get out of a trig exam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Matt, at a quick glance, it seemed the 00z GEFS members were generally north with the majority of the members targeting the DC-area/adjacent VA for max QPF. ECMWF ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Without getting into the weeds here, it's not quite same as comparing DC climo to NYC. NYC averages about double the annual snowfall of DC. I think DC and RNK are about the same? Though, DC does generally get bigger blockbusters. Dulles runs around 22" National about 16" Roanoke 23" Lynchburg 18" So they are in the neighborhood EDIT: Oops, that previous 30 year period, but still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 3Z SREF is a bit north. Nice H5 placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some very good agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some very good agreement there. Any word on euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any word on euro ensemble Low placement looks similar on Raleigh but, IDK about qpf. 6Z NAM looks even more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Looks strange but, the DC crowd would take it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By tommorow night 00z..it will be much more clear for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam looks weird with big dry slot over much of va Cause it takes the primary to nearly CLE before transfering... and pretty much if you are south of EZF by 50 miles or more you are screwed while north of there its rakage time... but of course its during NAM suckage time. DCA would get more precip after 84 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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