Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Shenandoah valley area looks great at this point. Afton MT is a nice spot--there is a cheap hotel right at the summit too. Right on 250.. Wintergreen has cheap midweek rates. I bet they'd get 3 feet if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Shenandoah valley area looks great at this point. Agreed. If I was chasing I would go down towards Woodstock or Harrisonburg. They are gonna get demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ryan Mahue said the new GGEM has been performing as well as the GFS and barely below the EURO Ryan Maue @RyanMaue .@EricBlake12 during same time period using 00z, 12z: GFS = 0.922, ECMWF = 0.939. (Anomaly Correlation 5-day z500 NH) Details 48 minsRyan Maue @RyanMaue How's the new Canadian Global model performing? For 5-day N. Hemi height skill -- very well. r = 0.922 pic.twitter.com/7tbnR6Dab4 Details Go to full profile → Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Afton MT is a nice spot--there is a cheap hotel right at the summit too. Right on 250.. Wintergreen has cheap midweek rates. I bet they'd get 3 feet if that verified. Our area seems pretty good per Ian's euro snow map, but we're probably be in the mid 40s on Monday so we're gonna need some serious cooling and or a south shift to get the most out of the QPF down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If I was in philly I wouldn't even make the call until monday night. He may not even have to travel anywhere. Or just a hop skip over to psu's house. We have 3 agonizing days ahead of us. The track has consensus but they could all shift N together too. I'm far from sold on a central va jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 All the talk of where to go, who's gonna get what, and so on is a bit premature. I'd put the odds at less than 20% that the final outcome is what we are seeing now. This is still a long way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ryan Mahue said the new GGEM has been performing as well as the GFS and barely below the EURO Ryan Maue @RyanMaue .@EricBlake12 during same time period using 00z, 12z: GFS = 0.922, ECMWF = 0.939. (Anomaly Correlation 5-day z500 NH) Details 48 minsRyan Maue @RyanMaue How's the new Canadian Global model performing? For 5-day N. Hemi height skill -- very well. r = 0.922 pic.twitter.com/7tbnR6Dab4 Details Go to full profile → Wow. Surprising. I would take the GGEM in a heartbeat. Thats 2 feet out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If I was in philly I wouldn't even make the call until monday night. He may not even have to travel anywhere. Or just a hop skip over to psu's house. We have 3 agonizing days ahead of us. The track has consensus but they could all shift N together too. I'm far from sold on a central va jackpot. Exactly. It's cliche, but being in the bullseye right now seems perilous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From DT's post. Talk about hitting a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From the euro snowfall map DT posted, it looks like the snow jackpot shifted west along the mountains. 18-24" from around ROA north through CHO. 4-8" line getting right up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If I was in philly I wouldn't even make the call until monday night. He may not even have to travel anywhere. Or just a hop skip over to psu's house. We have 3 agonizing days ahead of us. The track has consensus but they could all shift N together too. I'm far from sold on a central va jackpot. Agreed, climo and uncertainty in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That map is just crazy. Roanoake to Harrisonburg special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The biggest cavaet of the snow jackpot is simply temps. Yea, dc is typically unfavored but still. Until the heaviest rates and temp profile is resolved with sr guidance, that map doesn't mean as much. We're not going to have a handle of any of the fine details for a couple of long long days. Even nowcasting will have its surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The biggest cavaet of the snow jackpot is simply temps. Yea, dc is typically unfavored but still. Until the heaviest rates and temp profile is resolved with sr guidance, that map doesn't mean as much. We're not going to have a handle of any of the fine details for a couple of long long days. Even nowcasting will have its surprises. I pretty much agree but that tight gradient look is similar to the Marcch 1958 storm that produced 4.8 in the city and 14-16 as close by as Annandale. the snow in that even was during the night, it rained during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'd have to say that even though it might not mean much, the latest srefs look pretty good in keeping with the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I pretty much agree but that tight gradient look is similar to the Marcch 1958 storm that produced 4.8 in the city and 14-16 as close by as Annandale. the snow in that even was during the night, it rained during the day. I'm not all that weenied out irt to my area and dca etc. I have limited late season tracking experience but I'm smart enough to know that if DCA accidentally gets a good hit the jackpot will be somewhere else. We have timing working in our favor (somewhat) with a nigh time onset. Very little chance anywhere below 6-800' is aob freezing during the day though. At least not too far overhead should be cooperative enough. Nailbiter it will be. No avoiding that and not everyone is going to be happy no matter what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I pretty much agree but that tight gradient look is similar to the Marcch 1958 storm that produced 4.8 in the city and 14-16 as close by as Annandale. the snow in that even was during the night, it rained during the day. Really? That seems kind of unbeliveable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Really? That seems kind of unbeliveable I mentioned in the other thread- 3/62 was just as extreme. 4" at DCA to 19" in Rockville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'd have to say that even though it might not mean much, the latest srefs look pretty good in keeping with the trends. I am following the h5 path... at 87 on the 15z SREF FWIW its double contour closed and in N KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Really? That seems kind of unbeliveable Really, absolutely. I measured 14 to 16 inches in my back yard. We lost power for a week. Back then, Annandale was still rural which probably helped the temps some but we also had obscene rates. I think someone in southern PA got 30 inches. This one probably won't produce those obscene amounts as I think the 1958 event had around 3 inches of QPF. You can look it up in the KU book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 umm, I'll take this from the latest SREF's they keep doing this, aiming the bowling ball for VA http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I mentioned in the other thread- 3/62 was just as extreme. 4" at DCA to 19" in Rockville. I'm currently your biggest fan....lol Euro ens will be interesting. I combed the op and even though the unusual se jog isn't there, the track is still due east for the most part across the nc/va border and out to see. I know it's possible with the block but a low that strong will always work hard to dig in and turn left. If the ens mean is wetter further north then some of the members will have made the turn a little more before going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I am following the h5 path... at 87 on the 15z SREF FWIW its double contour closed and in N KY That's what I was looking at too, Yoda. Run the loop. It looks good for us. I think. SREF wetter at 700 and the surface too. I don't know if that's an improvement or just a result of getting closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ens mean a little better further east than the op. Not much different tho. Jackpot area hugs WV/VA border, mainly 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm currently your biggest fan....lol Euro ens will be interesting. I combed the op and even though the unusual se jog isn't there, the track is still due east for the most part across the nc/va border and out to see. I know it's possible with the block but a low that strong will always work hard to dig in and turn left. If the ens mean is wetter further north then some of the members will have made the turn a little more before going out to sea. As Yoda, Mitch, and myself have just mentioned, the h5 on the srefs looks to be turning slightly to the north at the end of its run. I suppose if it turns, the low will turn as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 1"+ liquid into DC area on mean.. covers almost all of VA. .75" up to md/pa border. think the qpf prob better than op.. op seems too high still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As Yoda, Mitch, and myself have just mentioned, the h5 on the srefs looks to be turning slightly to the north at the end of its run. I suppose if it turns, the low will turn as well? I suppose but I'm prob the wrong guy to ask. The surface low is out in front so depending on where the surface lp is irt to the h5 as it turns would be more telling. It could easily turn and still be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 1"+ liquid into DC area on mean.. covers almost all of VA. .75" up to md/pa border. think the qpf prob better than op.. op seems too high still. Won't an ensemble mean tend to spread out the qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Our area seems pretty good per Ian's euro snow map, but we're probably be in the mid 40s on Monday so we're gonna need some serious cooling and or a south shift to get the most out of the QPF down here. Going to be 45-50 Tuesday as well-- before the temp drop when rain starts. The 18-24 on the EC would be more like 12-15 of wet paste. (If verified) I think we are in good shape currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 1"+ liquid into DC area on mean.. covers almost all of VA. .75" up to md/pa border. think the qpf prob better than op.. op seems too high still. For us up north, how far North does the precip shield make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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